$IPOB: 🏡🏘 iBuyer Opendoor to Merge w/ Chamath Palihapitiya’s SPAC

요약 보기

결론: 오픈도어(Opendoor)는 '플랫폼'이 아니라 주택을 사서 손보고 되파는 '선형(linear) 리셀러' 사업모델이며, 칼 팔리하피티야의 SPAC과 합병하는 것은 자금조달과 상장 절차를 간소화하는 수단이다. 비즈니스 모델: 오픈도어는 빅데이터와 기술로 좋은 매물을 찾아 매입하고, 일부 수리 후 더 높은 가격에 재판매한다. 거래 절차(명의이전 등)를 기술로 효율화하지만 본질은 주택 되팔기다. 질의 대상이 되는 질로우(Zillow Offers)도 같은 선형 모델을 시도했다가 코로나 때 중단했다. 코로나 영향: 코로나로 도시에서 교외로 이동하는 흐름이 나타나 교외 주택 수요가 강해졌고, 이는 오픈도어 보유 주택에 유리한 순풍으로 해석된다. 펜필드 카운티는 매물이 바로 팔리는 상황이다. 재무/밸류에이션: 2019년 2월 기업가치 38억 달러에서 이번 합병으로 약 48억 달러 평가를 목표한다. 2019년 3월 15억 달러 부채를 조달했고 2019년 2월 3억 달러 지분 자본을 모았다. 부채는 주택 매입·플리핑 자금으로 쓰인다. SPAC 구조: SPAC은 상장된 빈 껍데기 회사로, 비상장 기업을 인수해 공개기업으로 만든다. 이를 통해 IPO보다 공시·심사 절차를 줄이고 빠르게 자본을 조달할 수 있다. 직상장(Direct listing)은 신규 자본 조달 없이 기존 주주에게 유동성을 주는 방식이다. 수수료 비교: 전통적 IPO는 투자은행 수수료가 크며, 이를 '고급 자동차에 비싼 짐가방이 딸려오는' 비유로 설명하며 은행이 제공하는 전용기 등 비용이 결국 발행사가 부담하는 비싼 수수료에서 나온다고 지적한다. 관련 업종: 자동차 중고 리셀 업체 Vroom도 유사한 선형 모델의 예로 언급된다. 주택·자동차 같은 거대 시장의 일부 구간을 데이터로 최적화하면 큰 사업이 될 수 있다고 본다. 리스크/결론: 선형 사업은 나쁜 사업이 아니지만, 수익성 경로, 밸류에이션 배수, 방어 가능성(defensibility)을 따져야 한다. 영상에서 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 단기 예측은 없다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. a reseller that does a little fix up on the house they use big data they use technology source the best houses and look at the market and and see which are the right houses to buy and when which you've seen because of covet you've seen a flight from the urban city to suburbia banks are flying you around on private jets whining and dining you oh man this is so cool i'm the ceo flying around private jets and meeting with all these investors believe me you're paying for that private jet we've actually covered open door many times on the show uh open door is also a linear business so uh despite this article these articles right i mean they love to just throw around these they'd love to throw around the marketplace word here's cnbc not even going to try and pronounce chamas last name but anyway his spac is going to acquire open door an online marketplace for buying and selling houses this is incorrect verbiage leslie picker from cnbc incorrect uh they're not a marketplace they are a linear reseller of houses doesn't mean you can't have a good business doesn't mean you have a bad business it's just not a marketplace it's not a platform they buy houses and then they do some fixing up on them and then they resell them they are a reseller they're a reseller that does a little fix up on the house they use big data they use technology to source the best houses and and you know and look at the market and see which are the right houses to buy and when they put some money into them to fix up the house and then they have technology that streamlines the whole you know buying and selling process like transferring titles and all that kind of stuff which is is actually somewhat time intensive and labor intensive they have process and and tech for that but at the end of the day their business is to sell the houses at a higher price than what they bought them for plus whatever money they put into the house to fix it up we spoke about open door um because they have the partnership with redfin which is which is an actual platform in the real estate industry uh connecting buyers and sellers agents and buyers um like a zillow and so zillow also a platform zillow in platt and zillow had zillow offers um which is basically the same thing of open door right it's it's it's the linear model right it's saying i'm a platform zillow or redfin i have all the data on what's what's what people are selling and buying and i'm gonna be able to find uh good houses offer those homeowners offers to buy the house fix it up and then resell it and because i have the best data as the platform i should be able to make really good margin on this linear buying and reselling activity of houses that is the thesis for zillow doing zillow offers which they paused with kovid open door similarly has they had to take out a bunch of debt uh in march despite all of that and uh um you know you would have thought that home prices would get hit pretty badly in covid um and i think actually what we've seen depending on where they own houses but i think most of their houses were actually in areas you know suburban areas around around the metropolitan center so actually what you've seen because of covet you've seen a flight from the urban uh city to suburbia um here in fairfield county outside of new york city fairfield county is popping homes are flying off the shelf homes are getting listed and literally selling the same day people are just fleeing big cities and so you have this huge flight to suburbia um which actually means that you know maybe if they had held on to some of that inventory that they had going into covet they they they probably could have made even better margin on it but what's interesting is so this company apparently open door is valuing itself at 4.8 billion dollars which they at their last fundraise was valued at 3.8 billion dollars and that was um in uh february of 2019.

02. so they're adding about um you know a little under a third you know another billion dollars to their valuation they raised 1.5 billion dollars in debt in march of 2019 and and they'll use that debt to finance a lot of their acquisitions right because i'm buying the house and then i'm reselling it so they'll be able to use that debt to help flip these houses they're basically just flipping houses right so they had a 1.5 billion dollar line back in march of 2019 they raised um 300 million dollars in equity capital back in uh february of 2019 at a a post valuation of 3.8 billion dollars now rumored to be uh going this reverse merger spec is you know if you want to think about what a spack is spec is basically an entity that um is listed and then it is going to acquire um a well you can have specs that basically are here to acquire private companies and then make them public the reason why you do that is because you can expedite and fast track a lot of the scrutiny and filing requirements that would go into doing a normal ipo or direct listing process so by doing this uh with chamas spec open door is still going to raise capital for the business similar to what you would be doing if you were accessing and doing an ipo you're raising equity capital you're selling shares on the public market this is saying the spec is basically going to finance the the capital raise and the spac is buying the business and then listing those shares publicly and open door gets to still get capital and then sidestep a lot of the traditional disclosures and reporting i mean you still have to have disclosures you're a public company but you don't go through the same process of needing to get you know banks and other investors to bankroll your ipo so it's not that traditional kind of roadshow ipo model which for some companies can make sense for them airbnb apparently was was trying to be um or was was being approached by bill ackman's back to to do something similar with airbnb and help airbnb go public in this model the other nice reason why a lot of these companies want to get public even if they don't want to need or want to raise a lot of capital that's where you see companies entertaining direct listings where the company says well you know i don't actually need to raise new capital but i would like to give my investors my shareholders my employees that have options liquidity and so now it's basically just saying you're going to do a direct listing and now the shares can be traded on the stock exchange so you're bringing liquidity to your existing shareholders and you could do a fundraise in the future you could issue new shares and and then basically sell stock to raise capital in the future once you have done a direct listing but in the direct listing model you're not actually raising new capital in that process you're really just kind of accessing the public markets and providing liquidity to your existing shareholders there's also a lot less fees on the direct listing the investment banks they take their pound to flesh when they take you public through a traditional ipo process you know that saying it's like you buy a range rover and the range rover comes with nice luggage in the trunk and then you hit yourself in the head and you're like damn i just paid like 5x retail value for that luggage i didn't really need that luggage i didn't really want that luggage damn that's the feeling with the ipo and fees but just in a much bigger way instead of it being luggage in the back your fancy range rover it's now private jets and they're the banks are flying you around on private jets whining and dining you oh man this is so cool i'm the ceo flying around private jets and meeting with all these investors believe me you're paying for that private jet you're paying 5x or more for that private jet and all the private jet trips and all the other things that happen in the ipo process the investment bank isn't just giving you free private jets that money is coming from somewhere and it's coming from the exorbitant fees the investment bank is charging you anyway let's get back on topic um back to uh open door yeah that's what we're talking about 3.8 billion dollars so they're adding another billion dollars to the valuation that's at least the plan things can change but another linear business and actually a linear business that you you might have thought at first blush would be hurt by covid i actually think there could be um the opposite here where you actually have these tailwinds that are um you know that that are that have been brought about by covid with with people moving to suburbia so this could be interesting and i actually think it could be really strong linear business we've seen this in cars where you have big businesses public businesses i think vroom is it might be a good example of this where they are buying and reselling cars right you buy a car used you might fix it up a little bit and then you resell it these massive industries where just i mean the car industry is a trillion dollar industry the housing industry probably bigger than that massive industries um all you're saying is i'm just gonna use digital and tech and data and i'm gonna optimize a reselling function on one sliver of that market and even though it's a small sliver of the market it's a trillion dollar market or more and if i optimize that sliver of the market um i could have a multi-billion dollar business i think that you know one example of that in cars would be vroom and now you know open door being kind of the example of that in housing so two interesting models here uh linear doesn't mean bad business but important to understand the difference uh when you look at their multiples their ability for you know their their profitability path and all these kinds of things defensibility all that fun stuff hi this is alex from winner take all thanks for joining us hope you enjoyed the content feel free to leave a comment 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