저자: TomLee · 외국인
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대선 후 비트코인 고변동 랠리가 시작 단계이며, 다음 2분기 내 사상 최고치 경신이 예상된다는 주장. 기관·투자자문사 유입 가속, 구글 검색·거래소 순위 등 아직 과열이 아니라는 근거 제시. 2025년 사이클 목표가 18만달러, 규제 완화(Gensler 퇴임)와 비트코인 준비자산 기대를 강조. 이후 Yan Vanek은 비트코인 목표 약 30만달러(금 시가총액 절반 가정), 이더리움은 조심스럽게 진입 포인트로 언급.
다듬은 글
done Joe we think it's just getting started as we expected Bitcoin saw this High volatility pump after the election uh we're now in Blue Sky territory no technical resistance and we think we're likely to make repeated all-time highs over the next two quarters the same pattern played out four years ago between the election and the end of the year in 2020 Bitcoin doubled there were about six 10% Corrections so it's not going to be a straight line but we're up 30% so far and a number of indicators that we track are still flashing green for this rally to continue this is a state change in terms of government support look at this cabinet the VP attorney general director of Defense National Security adviser possibly even the Secretary of Treasury being pro Bitcoin uh that's not including El and VC uh so the number of calls that I'm getting inbound from investment advisers who are at zero and looking to get to 1% or at 1% and looking to get to 3% these calls are starting to accelerate and we think the flows are going to follow so our price target for this cycle is 180k we think we can reach that next year that would be a th% return from the bottom to the peak this cycle that's still the smallest Bitcoin cycle uh by far and double from here basically you look at weird things uh matth you're like so you you Google search Google search for Bitcoin is is one of the the thing so you would expect if we were getting toppy you would expect that that was off the charts and and it's not yet Google searches are nowhere near where they were for years ago uh coinbase's rank in the Apple and Android app stores no where near where it was four years ago look at the internals of the derivative markets uh what it costs for funding to put on bitcoin Futures trades you know it it's up but once we get into this uh price discovery mode it tends to stay elevated for quite some time what if gensler's gone As Trump said on day one or someone said on day one I mean I I could imagine that I don't know when though it actually becomes a sell on the news cuz I don't know maybe I'm just think that it's it's more of a Mania move now than it than it actually is but it just seems like it's been a heck of a move think it'll move when gensler's gone if he's gone yeah I think you know maybe the disappointment phase will set in uh one to two quarters after the inauguration there's really four major impacts here you know one is just the positive impact on dynamism when you stop suing people for breaking rules that have never been written down uh that's a long way of saying that regulation by enforcement is going to end we're already seeing the economic impact of that there are crypto projects that are announcing that they're going to hold conferences in the US for the first time ever open offices in the US and New York it's just great for us jobs and GDP right we've got the Bitcoin Reserve that would legitimize this asset as a reserve asset pave the way for it to be used as a global settlement currency as the bricks countries have been doing uh you know president Trump recognizes the synergies between Bitcoin and AI they are two sides of the same coin if you want to have cheap AI uh you're going to want to combine it with Bitcoin mining to take advantage of that cheap power they're telling me we got uh I don't know Disney Bitcoin they're both important obviously we got to get the uh we got to get moving and we got the CFO but we appreciate your time today Matt thank you now you know post having and uh now bitcoin's becoming a lot more relevant and I think maybe the regulatory overhang is is diminishing that there's a lot of upside from here how much upside and where else in crypto might there be opportunities let's ask someone who's been a perennial first mover in this space Yan Vanek is the CEO of vanc Associates Yan it's great to have you and when you're probably asked as much as I am if bitcoin's going to 100,000 next what would you say oh Kelly uh happy Friday I think uh bitcoin's going to hit all-time highs well sorry it hit them today and I think it's going further right my basic premise is that ultimately bitcoin's value will be half of that of all the gold outstanding so you're talking about something like $300,000 for Bitcoin why only half the value why not a quarter of the value or pick some other random number well because um I maybe I'm more balanced I think if I were Bitcoin maximalist I would say would overtake gold but I'm just I think that's like a ba a reasonable base assumption uh it's it's clear you know one of the big Winners this year is uh individual investors have really piled into the Bitcoin ETFs and I think as individuals as a constituency they were important in this election the loss um by by shered Brown of his Ohio senate seat the fact that Trump went to the Bitcoin convention shows that there's a big constituency in the US and hopefully it becomes a by partisan uh issue as well not so by uh one-sided there are other ways to play the crypto space there's stocks like coinbase um there are other coins and tokens and things like ether um Doge now gets a lot of mention would you be an advocate of all of that as well well what I've said look Bitcoin is sort of digital gold to me and it's a store of value Asset uh what I've said about ethereum is don't buy it unless you really understand its business proposition and its competitors the other databases uh that might be the rails for for crypto I do think however that overall big picture stable coins are are the new global payment system and one of the big Winners is going to be ethereum and coinbase as well ethereum's market share kind of bottomed in September um we look at stuff like that and so I I it's a little bit of a contrarian play uh ethereum has outperformed over the last several weeks uh and I think it's a good entry point actually for ethereum if you understand the pros and cons of it well maybe that's a discussion for next time Yan we'll leave it there for today appreciate you joining us good to see you Yan
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