MICHAEL BURRY COVERED ON $1.6 BILLION SHORT POSITION.. (AMC STOCK)

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결론: 발언자는 시장 전반은 강세 쪽에 무게를 두며, AMC는 희석 우려로 단기 횡보(약 $7~9) 전망. 거시지표: 소매판매 전월비 -0.1%(예상 -0.3%)로 소폭 상회, 생산자물가(PPI) 전월비 -0.5%(예상 +0.1%)로 물가 둔화 신호로 해석. 금리: 10년물 국채금리는 약 4.53%로 상승했으나 발언자는 과도한 우려는 아니라고 봄. 연준 금리인하 확률은 3월 이후 점차 높아지며 5월 56.5%, 6월 2회 인하 29% 등으로 제시. 시장 심리: SPY 리테일 레버리지 포지션 61% 약세, QQQ 70% 약세로 역발상 지표상 추가 상승 여지 언급. 채권·머니마켓 비중도 2008년 금융위기 수준으로 높다고 함. 지수 전망: 나스닥 컵앤핸들 돌파 확인, 신고가까지 약 4.5% 상승 여력 제시. 금리인하 수혜인 중소형주(러셀2000) 확장 랠리 기대, 러셀2000 상승 시 IWM 추적 권장. AMC: 최근 2분기 연속 순이익 흑자이나 잦은 주식 희석(유상증자) 문제 지적. 단기 $7~9 박스권 횡보 예상, 급등·급락은 재료 발생 전까지 기대하지 않음. 기술적으로 MACD 약세, RSI 36(과매도 근접)으로 반등 가능성 언급. 옵션/공매도: 공매도 잔고 비율 등 데이터는 신뢰도 낮다고 전제. 이번 주 콜옵션 거래 활발, 금요일 전후 강세일 가능성 언급. 이벤트: 다음날 연준 연설, 필라델피아 연은 지수, 신규실업수당 등 2차 지표 발표 예정. 마이클 버리 공매도 청산(약 16억 달러 규모, 손실 약 40% 언급): 발언자는 이를 시장 추가 상승 신호로 해석하는 견해를 제시하며 시청자 의견을 물음. 리스크: 희석 지속 시 AMC 상승 제한, 연준 금리 경로 변화 및 경기침체 우려 재부각 가능성.

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01. ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the channel here in this video we're going to get into everything you need to know on AMC stock as well as the broader markets today if you are ready let's go ahead and jump straight into it hit the like button and subscribe to the channel Source your comments questions or concerns Down Below in the comment section so we're going to start this one off with Michael burry yes he just covered on his short position Michael bur has closed his $1.6 billion short on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ for an estimated loss of 40% yeah it's been a rough time if you've been sure our markets and I don't think that's going away anytime soon we'll break down exactly why I think that is why I think a rally will likely continue but yeah when Michael B covers yeah it's probably uh not going down anytime soon now first and foremost let's get into what happened today if you guys missed the last video if you are living under a rock or maybe hey you just missed the last video you had stuff going on well let me get you caught up retail sales month over month came in at negative 0.1% the estimate was negative 0.3% this was better than expected now two days ago we were expecting the number we got so was it really better than expectations you can make the argument there this is a reason why bond yields are actually going higher today and we'll look at the 10e treasury here in just a second really the big story is PPI month over month for the month of October came in at negative 0.5% the estimate was positive 0.1% last month's number was positive 0.4% so you have seen a total shift here like 18360 flip this is good news why ppi is producer price index or producer price inflation CPI Consumer Price Index Consumer Price inflation essentially ppi is like your businesses right uh take for an example like Nvidia or any other product really or or a a GM or a Tesla doesn't matter how much are their costs going up that's what PPI tells you if their costs are declining half of 1% for any given month well that probably means they're not going to be raising prices so ppi is a good kind of leading indicator to CPI that prices are probably going to continue to fall if not stabilize you're probably not going to see uh inflation a problem anymore inflation is pretty much dead at this point point now retail sales coming in a little bit better than expectations is causing a little bit of a knee-jerk reaction in 10year treasury yields 10e treasury yields are up about nine basis points today at 4.53 1% I mean considering 10year treasury yields were just at 5% I don't think this is all too alarming Andor shocking that you fallen a lot and now you're bouncing a lot it's going to be very volatile right here now what's actually interesting if you look at the prob abilities for rate Cuts rate hikes just different moves from the FED you're actually very bullish today even though 10-year treasury yields are rising the expectations for rate hikes are not so December 13th it is 100% priced in that the FED will not be raising rates nor cutting rates same thing for January 31st 2024 March is where the probabilities start to move around 76% chance of a continued hold and a 24% chance of a rate cut for May 1st you have a 56.5% chance of a rate cut this is the first time that that this has been priced in for May and there's a 15% chance the FED will cut twice by May so that'd be like a cut in March and then a cut in May there's a 28.5% chance that rates will stay where they currently are for June you're again further uh pricing in at least two rate cuts um well technically it's pricing in one but there's a greater chance of seeing two rate cuts by June rather than seeing rates where they are today by June so higher for longer is really not playing out here in the FED Futures Market there's a 47.1% chance of one rate rate cut by June 29% chance of two rate cuts by June and an 18.9% chance of a continued pause for July uh we're pricing in two rate cuts for sure at 39.1% chance uh there's a 2.8% chance we see four rate cuts by July and uh 18.4% chance we see three rate cuts by July so this should be good for small and midcap stocks now over the past couple of days as you have seen you know uh people get I guess more bullish well they actually hav't gotten more bullish so current retail leveraged open bull slbe positions on the Spy 61% bearish 39% bullish sheesh that is actually insane the dowo 70% bearish 30% bullish so this is like a contrarian indicator to say hey if people are still this bearish then you probably can see quite the rally from here that would be my expectation now you've seen so much bearish positioning this is comparable levels to the ' 0809 great financial crisis as far as the uh um amount of capital in Money Market funds with overweighted positions to bonds now bonds are going to do okay but you know what's going to do better your Russell 2000 your stocks that are a part of your Russell 2000 and apparently uh a AMC is still one of the top Holdings in the Russell 2000 so I mean that's got to benefit AMC to some degree right just as the sentiment shifts as people turn more bullish on smaller map stocks it's got to benefit AMC let me know what you guys think about that down below in the comment section nonetheless what do you you guys think is going to happen next for our markets I think I think until we get the recession fears or the actual recession itself stocks can probably be pretty bullish from here from now until the end of the year now I'm actually not expecting anything too crazy on the index level now you are going through this cup and handle formation you have broken to the upside you've you've basically confirmed this this pattern right which tends to break out to new all-time highs or new cycle highs that would only be a move higher from here of about 4.5% to get to New highs like ever for the NASDAQ but your biggest waiting in the NASDAQ are stocks that don't benefit from the FED lowering rates right your small midcap stocks maybe a stock like a Tesla they benefit from rates going lower from the FED actually cutting rates your big Tech guys do not so I think there will be a widening out of this market and I do think that widening out of this Market is going to bullishly affect small midcap stock something like an AMC I would expect to also do well now AMC has their own problems AMC has its own issues the biggest gripe or biggest negative thing you can say about AMC is Adam Aaron has no clue what he is doing as far as his structure of diluting shareholders they just come out whenever they want to yep we're going to raise a 40 million share sale we're going to do another 40 million share sale with no Rhyme or Reason Not correlated to whether the stock price of AMC has done well or not they kind of just go ahead and do it now I'll tell you at this point AMC has now been profitable the last two quarters with a net income to the bottom line meaning they're adding money to their bank account that is good that is obviously better than them losing money if if if AMC was losing like a 100 million a quarter uh yeah they would be essentially going bankrupt because you wouldn't be able to delute shareholders fast enough to not go bankrupt so you're in a little bit of a different scenario now and I think the markets will eventually start to get over all of this delution but as of right now you're not seeing it now AMC stock is down 2.42% here on the day I think I think until you get good news for AMC or you do see another day of kind of a broad Market rally you're probably going to see the stock trade sideways in this range in between $7 $8 maybe even $9 per share once you do get more Capital flowing into the Russell 2000 keep in mind apple is larger than the Russell 2000 so to see you know the the Russell up like we did yesterday around 5% really it was a very very very small amount of capital on the sidelines of our markets that caused that move you could be looking at like a 50 plus per rally for the broader uh Russell 2000 you can track that using iwm when the capital actually does flow back into the stock and I do think that's when a lot of short squeezes will start really across the board you've already seen that to some degree like in a Tesla that stock looks like it is currently going through a short squeeze but I think AMC will have its turn as well and again eventually markets will get over this delution but in the meantime I'm expecting a range-bound AMC I'm not expecting a cratering AMC I'm not expecting a rocketing AMC until we get a reason for one of those things toen happen if you take a look at the macd slightly bearish yellow line broke under the blue line starting to Trend downwards a little bit the RSI is so bearish it's bullish at 36 so anything under 50 is under neutral right on the oversold side where you're at right now 36 is uh pretty dang uh bearish right so to see a bounce from here would not be all too surprising and I wouldn't be shocked now let's take a look at the ortek static keep in mind take this with a big grain of salt um I don't think these numbers are correct but we're going to go through them nonetheless you have a live short interest off fre flow at 10.2% 162.5 shares that are currently sold short days to cover 0.88 20.7 million shares that are currently sold short shares out of loan 2.35 million cost to borrow 1.33% utilization of 47.5 4% and a short score of 60 out of 100 cost to borrow fees around 2 3% across the board cost cost bar average 2.57% CoStar Max uh 2.82% if you look at the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages that is sitting at about 62% which is getting closer to where you were back in July at about 75% of stocks above their 50-day moving average so it looks like you have started to see a broader more inclusive Market rally but uh I think AMC has some catching up to do none the less now if you take a look at the stco tracker data for this week you got about 3,000 calls currently in the money 160,000 calls that are out the money so there's a lot of dry powder on the sideline as far as those calls that are out of the money in the money puts at 32,1 34 out the money puts at ,36 to so lots of option activity basically across the board uh you could get quite uh bullish here for the right circumstance right there's a lot of dry powder into the end of this week and I expect probably the end of this week maybe tomorrow or Friday you're going to see uh one day that is quite bullish because you just really haven't seen that this week and again it has to do with the delution for the most part but I do think markets are starting to get over that a little bit more as the expectations for lower uh fed funds rates have have you know been going higher right people think the fed's going to cut rates sooner they're they're going to cut more uh that that makes the delution maybe a little bit not as bad because maybe they won't need to delute shareholders and Equity value as much as they otherwise would have because they could go to the bond market they could refinance they could do uh other things along those lines so uh there you have it uh that's pretty much going to do it there's actually not too much for tomorrow we can take a look at the economic calendar here together you have some fed speakers you have initial jobless claims Philadelphia fed Manufacturing index Philly fed business conditions capex index employment new orders prices paid industrial production month over month year-over-year manufacturing production year over-year month over month fed uh Williams fed Waller Fed Bar Kansas uh fed Composite Index a lot of what I would call second tier data the CPI PPI retail sales are are you know obviously more important but these second tier data points can also move our market so uh that's going to do it for this video let me know what you guys think about the course ahead for AMC stock and Michael bur covering on a short position does that mean you know the Situation's probably going to get even more bullish or does that mean uh maybe not let me know what you guys think about that down below in the comment section thank you for watching enjoy the rest of your day and I will see you in the next one