저자: TomLee · 외국인
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한줄결론: 톰 리는 스태그플레이션 우려가 줄고 증시 바닥(플러시)이 나왔으며, 연말 S&P500은 4800 이상으로 두 자릿수 상승할 것으로 본다. 단기 시장 판단: 오전 10:23에 플러시 바닥을 말했고 실제로 반등했다고 자평. 풋콜 비율 1.97은 최근 30년 중 20번뿐이고 대개 임박한 바닥 신호였다는 Mark Newton 분석을 근거로 함. 매도 세력은 소진됐고 대기 자금이 많다고 봄. 거시 경제: 고용보고서는 고용은 양호하나 임금은 둔화, UAW 파업 진전, 유가 하락으로 인플레 가속 없는 확장 국면이라고 봄. 스태그플레이션 스토리는 약화. 금리: 10년물 4.88%에서 4.77%로 내려왔지만 여전히 긴축적. 금리 상승이 포물선이면 되돌림은 급격할 것이며 이는 주식에 우호적. 연준은 금융여건이 충분히 조여져 추가 인상이 필요 없을 것으로 봄. 금리가 높게 유지되는 것 자체는 장기적 치명타는 아니라고 봄. 밸류에이션: 10년물 3.5~5.2% 구간에서 PE는 평균 약 20배. 현재 PE는 16배 수준으로 4턴 상승 여력이 크다고 봄. 명목성장 상승과 EPS 서프라이즈 환경도 근거. 실적: 분기 추정치 하향은 흔하지만 3분기 실적 수정은 경기 턴과 부합. 에너지·소재 제외 시 3분기 이익 성장률 약 7%. 임금 상승 둔화가 실적에 우호적. 종목/섹터: 기관은 유동성 높은 빅테크(FANG)가 먼저 주도할 것. 나머지 S&P500은 이익수익률 약 7%에 두 자릿수 이익 성장으로 채권 대비 매력. 이익 성장은 기술주가 주도(Goldman 전망 내년 10%). 구글·메타는 차트 강세, 애플·마이크로소프트는 약세로 분화 가능성 언급. 유틸리티·필수소비재는 부채비율이 높아 금리에 취약하며 톰은 필수소비재보다 기술주를 선호. 유틸리티는 타이밍이 맞으면 리스크 대비 기회 가능, TLT가 상승 가능성 언급. 반대 의견(Bren Talkington, 출연자): 단기 반등은 가능하나 향후 6개월은 4200~4600 박스권 예상. 기술주 내에서도 선별 필요, 빅테크 간 분화 예상. 정부 재정지출(1.9조 달러 구제법 등)로 인플레 고착 우려, 금리 상단 제한. 유틸리티·필수소비재·부동산이 부채비율 최고라 금리 상승에 취약. 리스크: 채권 대비 현금성·국채의 안전성 대안 경쟁. 주식 시장은 리테일·기관 자금 유출로 굶주린 상태이나 자사주 매입은 지속. 인플레 가속 시 금리 상승 리스크. 중국·유럽·우크라이나 전쟁 확대 우려 언급(Bren). 톰 리 연말 전망: S&P500 4800 이상(두 자릿수 상승). 내년 금리 4%로 복귀 가능성 및 인플레 둔화 시 채권 랠리→PE 상승 시나리오 제시.
다듬은 글
co-founder and head of research welcome back it's good to see you it's been a while yeah great great to see you Scott man I'm I'm going to start calling you preent Tom I hope you don't mind because this morning at 10:23 in the morning you said possibly this is the flush bottom line possibility equities reverse into the close well it looks like you called it Tom what do you think about this reversal and what it means well I I think if we think about the data for the past week the stagflation story that gained a lot of prominence in the last 10 weeks I think has diminished a lot um because the jobs report showed good jobs but soft on wages we're making progress on the UAW strike and then of course as you know oils come off that boil and these are all pointing to an expansion that's not suffering from an acceleration of inflation uh so I think it really helps the idea that as you said maybe the flush happened in and we can be strong into your end do you really think that this is that moment that that turn is is going to begin to happen Tom um part of the Tactical view comes from Mark Newton but I think it's it was going to be either today or early next week because we had that intraday reading of the put call Reach 1.97 only 20 times the last 30 years it's so rare but is almost always signaled an imminent bottom and then today as you point out we had a really hot jobs number a pretty big selloff that is reversing in the face of people still saying nothing's gotten better so I do think the sellers are exhausted and there's a lot of Firepower in the sidelines and and if a few things go right I think we get a a big rally I know but the the one thing that's not really getting better and I don't want to ignore it rates are still high right so we're at 4 488 earlier today on the 10 years so we're at 477 so we've come off as you said the boil but we've still got a pot that's really simmering rapidly that's right I I mean these are very tight Financial conditions it's probably not a long-term killer if we were at five for years cuz we know 5% is the average for 10 the tenure for the last 90 years but at the moment that change has been very restrictive um if I was to be half full on this we know this also means the FED has less work to do which means fewer hikes so in some ways as long as a market can absorb this change and it's very restrictive I mean it it's uncomfortable um I think that's positive more importantly as uh Walter demer pointed out you know when you have a parabolic rise in rates it's not going to take the escalator back down if it does peak it's going to be a sharp reversal and of course that's supportive for stocks yeah you think the fed's done do you think Mary daily was a pretty big tell yesterday and thinking that San Francisco fed president of course thinking that the move that we've seen and interest rates has caused Financial conditions to tighten substantially in her mind equal to at least one hike in rate and that now that is the prevailing thought within the room that credit conditions have tightened enough were restrictive as you said we're done yes I think the FED feels that they you know since September 20th I think it was clear the market kind of got this new message well higher for longer the Market's price set in I don't know if the FED has to keep jawboning it and even threaten further hikes if it's gotten to the place it wants to be and as as you're saying when you when you have a Fed member saying it's a hike another hike on top of that means that we we're extra worried how about valuations do you you comfortable where they are and and and where you know just simply relative to rates being high and you know you still believe the economy to some degree is is going to slow it's just hanging in so incredibly resilient uh it's it's stunning I don't know what else to say uh yes I I mean I know intuitively investors think PE has to come down because interest rates have gone up but history shows when when the 10 years between 3 and a half and 52% the PE PE has averaged close to 20 times part of it is something that Sheila bear had written about you know it it produces Capital discipline and and that allows companies to have durable earnings which means PE should be higher but also we're in an environment where nominal growth is higher which means I I also think we're in an EPS surprise environment that's why PE should go up it's really 16 times actually less than that X Fang I think it if it goes up four for turns that's a huge up upside in equities okay I'm glad you went to earnings CU I wanted to get there anyway um so you don't think that estimates which have crept up incrementally positive this quarter a little bit more next and then more substantially obviously as we get into 2024 you don't think those are you know over their skis a little bit uh I mean earnings always are have some risk because of of optimism of analysts so 70% of the times earnings revisions are down but the revisions to Q3 earnings are more consistent with the turn in the cycle and we have to remember the headline earnings are still down year-over-year because of energy and basic materials without those it's close to 7% earnings growth in third quarter I mean that's a that's a really nice you know companies are doing well I think the greed flation is going to hurt and you of course we have some volatility with the strike but I think the overall picture is demand is holding up and and now wage costs are slowing that that should help be supportive of earnings actually yeah I mean you said you know xfang so let's drill down on that a little bit more what do we talking 15 times for for xfang basically the 490 whatever stocks with within the S&P 500 versus the mega caps so if you think we're going to hang in there and from an economic standpoint and you think the FED is done and you think rates are not going to really you know go much higher from here do I want to start looking at xfang or do I want to just dance with the stocks that got me here to begin with uh Scott I I don't want to sound like I'm saying both but when I think about how risk like when institutions want to add risk in fourth quarter they're going to buy what's Liquid and what's works so I think that's why Fang should lead but the reason the rest of the comp you know the rest of the S&P is attractive is that you have a level set of 7% earnings yield or maybe six but with earnings growth double digits the total return profile of equities here trounces what you can earn on a tenure and I don't think investors are convinced of that today but a year from now they will be and that's why the S&P could you know have more than double digit gains over the next 12 months I know but you you make a good argument though even as you argue for stocks relative to bonds others would say look how cheap bonds have gotten as rates have gone up so there's still considerable competition in a really uncertain environment whether it's you know cash equivalents or treasuries themselves that still offer a safer let's just use that word safer alternative yes um I mean that I think it's correct cor for people to to have that view how many addition will make that decision in the next 12 months I think is what matters we already have seen trillions flee out of risk assets the stock market has been starved of retail and institutional Equity flows the movements have all been just Prime brokerage leverage BuyBacks will continue I think on the margin if inflation is diminishing next year and people think the FED is done or might cut that's good because bonds could rally but as we we know I mean if that happens we know PE is going to go up a lot so stocks will rally even more let's bring in CNBC contributor Bren Talkington of requisite Capital Tom she's going to join the conversation so Bren I I believe you heard everything that Tom had to say do you agree well I think that going back to like the technicals let's let's go back there I think that we started the week with only about 15 stocks above their their 50-day moving average when it gets below 20% that's really bullish from a short-term bottom that that was right on top of the S&P almost getting to 4200 so I think we were in this really oversold conditions and I think you know great job on Tom calling for a midday rally and so I think we can definitely Rally from here don't forget Monday the bond Market's closed so this party can continue because there's nothing to stop it because really this has been a rate driven market so I think that's going to help I do think though over the next few months outside of season ity which is a real thing right I would never discount it I think over the next 6 months though we're going to be much more range-bound between this you know let's say 4,200 to like 45 4600 cuz I still think there are so many crosscurrents I think on the earnings front though if you look at Goldman Sachs I think Coston does good research technology is where you're going to get all of the earnings growth next year so they're looking for 10% earnings growth you know year-over-year from 23 to 24 and so you're we're going to have to get that because those stocks are more rich and so I am not in the consensus that I think we're going to have this 12% earnings growth and so when I break down the names I do think you still want to own technology but within technology I think you have to be you know somewhat judicious because while you know if you look right now Scott you know Microsoft and Apple's charts look terrible their revenue and earnings growth haven't been as good as let's say at Google and Microsoft I mean a Google a Google and and meta whose charts look really strong and continue to gain momentum so it'll be interesting interesting to see if we start getting some dispersion of those Mega cap names especially as earnings come out next quarter we'll we'll we we'll see but I think that's a a pretty decent probability some dispersion of the mega caps starts to to play out I feel like Tom that's a long way of saying that you know I'm not Bren I'm not necessarily as optimistic as you are Tom that earnings are going to reach the level that some like Goldman and others suggest that they might now they might in in mega caps that jury is still out but certainly not elsewhere so Tom how do you respond to that uh well I mean I I think there is a a pretty long list of worries out there uh cuz you know if I would to add to brin's concerns I would add China and Europe and the war and the escalation of the Ukraine war but in this environment which has been incredibly challenging for companies they're able to produce 7% earnings growth now in the face of the FED relentlessy raising rates but in the next 12 months they're taking their foot off that oil I think might have made a local top wage pressures went from you know nearly 6% on their way to 3 and A2 and a 10-year environment like this with nominal GDP does point to very good earnings growth historically and the PM my have convincingly bottomed you know the ism was stuck below 46 for several months now back to 49 uh so to me it's it's pointing to an economic momentum that's that's materially improving so I think that rate of change is what's going to compel stocks to get PE expansion Tom what do you make of you know weakness that we've seen in utilities and Staples and transports and and things like that are they any bit attractive I know that all of these other sectors you know the the lights on the Marquee they're they're the ones that are there I get it but sometimes you see the best opportunities where the greatest amount of Carnage lies within the market utilities Staples things like that are they attractive to you or not uh yeah utilities look for the for someone who's really great with timing utilities risk adjusted probably are huge opportunities I mean I bet you it's going to follow TLT right TLT at some point is going to make a a pretty tremendous upside move if Mark Newton's right and you know the tenure goes back to towards 4% next year and on transports It's tricky because you got to pay attention to what's happening there but there are a lot of interplay Dynamics uh that are idiosyncratic and not necessarily simple macro but and then Staples I mean it's tough cuz you know that's a greed inflation sector and and now it's on the margin some strange stories about you know calorie consumption could be declining I mean it's tough I you know I I think think I'd rather own technology stocks over Staples because at least technology stocks you don't have to worry about calories yeah I mean I mean I I don't know that you'd find too many people fighting you on the idea of owning technology stocks over Staples so I don't know if that's necessarily a fair fight but Bren how would you address those two sectors or or just simply other areas of the market that might work outside of big Tech so I think going back to utilities and Staples you know we were looking if you look at the debt to the net debt to equity of every sector in the S&P which three sectors have the highest debt to equity ratios utilities real estate and Staples and so I think that those three areas and so we're talking about two of them are just much more susceptible to the D of the D and the E right to rate Rises so I think this is a unique time typically later stage in the economic cycle those would be doing well we have a whole new playbook I think that people can count on large cap technology to know what you're going to get you might not get great Revenue growth but you're going to get good earnings because they're all buying back their shares I think from an allocation perspective what what what my concerns are is that I agree with Tom that the economy is probably going to stay really strong but for the wrong reasons because it's government L because don't forget we had the you know 1.9 trillion American Rescue act and then three other ones underneath them those dollars Scott need to be spent there's billions and billions of dollars that need to be spent by 2025 and so you're going to continue to see municipalities doing very very large infrastructure plans and so bottom line that what does that mean that's good for the economy but what else is that it's inflationary and so I just think we're in times where the government is spending like they're trying to get out of a recession and they're doing this pre-recession and to me that ends up causing just a higher probability that recession stay stay stickier because of government induced programs into the US and so to me that puts somewhat of a ceiling on rates as well as markets because we're going to continue to be having this inflationary conversation we're not getting to 2% anytime soon well we seem to be on the March there Tom I think you'd probably disagree uh yes I mean to the extent that I I don't think it's a fatea compete that inflation is going to be accelerating or sticky um I mean as we know the the only sticky part of core inflation right now is is shelter and housing is going to get walloped as mortgage rates stay here at eight so to an extent this this Rising rates is accomplishing what the FED wants to see which is kind of put a ceiling on on home prices for now and that's going to really restrict CPI I mean 40% of core CPI is is basically housing related anyways Autos that's makes it close to 57% so as long as cars and housing aren't accelerating inflation is is on a Glide path lower Tom what's your target for the end of the year for the S&P do you you still have one correct yes uh Scott I think we're going to Rally double digits so I think we're going to get over 4,800 by year end I mean a lot has to go right and I'll tell you there's a lot of damage in the last few weeks so you know it may not get to 48 but I think directionally is the correct that I think we have a a very strong reflexive recovery because interest rates are nearing an end of a parabolic rise wow well we'll see for sure and we'll talk to you plenty of times about it I appreciate it everybody thank you Bren we'll talk to you soon and Tom Lee of course fun strout let's get to our question of the day
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