저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Fed 금리 인상 사이클이 사실상 끝났다는 신호가 나오면 채권시장 불확실성이 줄고 위험자산 랠리(1982년 같은 장기 상승)가 촉발될 수 있다는 낙관론. 금리 인상 종료 신호가 나와도 Fed가 바로 인하하지는 않으며, QT(양적긴축)를 계속하고 높은 실질금리를 장기간 유지할 것으로 봄. 금리를 동결하는 것과 인하를 구분해야 한다는 논지. 미국 연준이 인플레이션과 싸우는 중이라 실질금리를 유지하려면 2024년 인플레이션 둔화에 따라 금리를 낮춰야 하며, 그렇지 않으면 실질 긴축이 과도해져 경기침체 가능성이 있다는 분석. 30년 모기지 스프레드가 현재 약 300bp로 역사적 평균(1.5~1.7%p)보다 높아, 국채금리가 횡보해도 Fed가 금리 인상 종료를 시사하면 모기지금리가 약 1.5%p 하락할 수 있다고 전망. AI 관련주(엔비디아 등)의 조정은 연초 이후 유일한 주도주였던 데 따른 차익 실현 성격이며, 시장이 위험선호 상승 추세를 되찾으면 AI주가 다시 주목받을 것이라고 봄. 재정적자가 예상보다 두 배로 커지고 공급 부담이 금리 상승 압력이 되고 있다는 논의가 있었으나, 달러가 강세인 점을 근거로 채권시장이 재정적자 자금조달을 거부하고 있다고 보기는 어렵다는 반론도 제기됨. 해외 경제지표 약화도 언급됨. 전반적으로 금리 인상 종료 이후 채권·주식 랠리를 기대하는 입장이며, 모기지금리 하락 전망이 가장 두드러진 발언이었다.
다듬은 글
managing partner Tom Lee Tom it doesn't feel like that's where we're headed even if they are done raising rates they're not going to signal that next week are they uh Sarah next week would be a tall order for the FED to be that confident I do think by November they're going to have enough data points to feel that way but it is I think what we saw with ECB and how markets reacted a pretty big deal that once a central bank feels that they've reached a point where the data is sufficient for them just sort of reach their last hike it's going to take a lot of uncertainty out of the bond market we saw that yesterday across all the regions in Europe and all the term structures of Europe and that would trigger a risk rally and and it's very kind to 1982.
I I think there's a lot of folks here who think once the FED says are done they think the stock market actually continues to go down but I think it's the opposite reaction is going to take place but a lot of people that I talked to think you think the shin because it's not as if when the FED stops raising rates they're going to start cutting rates it's not a reversal of the liquidity environment and instead they're still doing QT so they're still trimming the balance sheet and they still plan to keep rates at this High restrictive level for a long time uh yeah yes um but I think investors who have that view are anchoring around a business cycle concept of fed Cycles we know the FED is fighting a very different War today you know they're fighting a war on inflation and the restrictive rate they're targeting is a real rate that helps contain and prevent inflation from flaring up that if they keep rates here okay at five and a half percent and then year-over-year inflation next year drops to two five which is you know which one can model it pretty easily that's a huge increase in restriction probably enough to put us in a recession so I think the FED would be in a position to actually cut only to keep real rates constant I think they want to keep higher for longer real rates they don't want to increase real rates and the effect on the mortgage Market would be pretty dramatic as well you referenced it earlier the access spread today on on a 30-year mortgage to the tenure is close to 300 basis points historically that number is somewhere between 1.5 to 1.7 percentage points meaning even if tenure stays flat and the FED signals an end mortgage rates could drop you know one and a half percent yeah there have been some jokes this week about what would happen if mortgage rates got above high yield which uh that's after that's ever happened to be amazing if it did I do under uh Tom Price action wise on some of the AI names reaction to nvidia's quarter wasn't Stellar uh you could say the same thing about Oracle adobe's down for today is that just just a function of being tired about the story uh Carl it it could be you know I mean I think we're definitely seeing a a pretty sizable correction in AI related names because that was the only game in town for most of the year but we also are in a period of I think rough markets I mean since August it's really been a game of inches I I don't know if people want to have that much risk in August and September I do think once the market again reattains its sort of uptrend and risk-on mode I do think the AI names are going to be places people come back to because there's real growth there but I'm not surprised I mean this is kind of a risk-off environment at the moment you don't buy the argument that the the fiscal picture is is becoming increasingly important for investors the fact that we have a deficit that was it's double where it was supposed to be especially during this growth period where unemployment is low and and there's so much Supply and issuance that has to take place and that's keeping pressure upward pressure on yields as well Sarah it it is pretty puzzling that we're you know in an expansion with high nominal GDP those should actually cause the deficit to shrink I mean that would be what economic history says but you're right it's puzzling the deficits double this year is the bond market complaining about it I I would say I would feel more convinced about that if the dollar was coincidentally weakening but the Dollar's actually been pretty strong so it does it doesn't feel to me like there's someone saying that they don't want to fund the deficit here I guess but dollar strength follows yield strength often you know uh not well if you're worried about fiscal deficits and the funding the you know the ability for the government to fund I would associate with a weaker currency all right that's fair we're also getting weaker economic data overseas Tom it's a good discussion thank you for joining us with some of your calls and your predictions especially on mortgage rates that really stood out Tom Lee a fun thing thank you still
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