저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
역대 최악의 약세장이 앞으로 올 것이며 과도한 부채와 중앙은행의 대규모 통화 발행이 원인이라는 경고 영상. 전체 시장이 거품 상태이다. 채권은 역사상 가장 비싸고, 부동산(한국·뉴질랜드 등)과 주식도 거품이며, 아마존·삼성 등 일부 종목은 매일 오른다. 유일하게 싼 자산은 원자재로, 은은 고점 대비 60%, 설탕 70%, 원유 52% 하락한 상태다. 로저스는 원자재를 현재 가장 선호하는 자산군으로 꼽고, 좋은 기회가 오면 매수하겠다고 말했다. 본인은 주식을 보유 중이며 공매도는 하지 않는다고 밝혔다. 중국도 부채가 크게 늘었고 2009년처럼 구제해줄 여력이 줄었다는 주장이다. 통화 붕괴와 경제 붕괴가 동시에 올 수 있으며, 1930년대처럼 사회적 불안과 전쟁으로 이어질 위험도 언급했다. 시기에 대해서는 예측이 아니라 시나리오라고 선을 그으며, 2022년 가능성과 10월 하락 후 대규모 통화 발행과 랠리 후 블로오프(폭등 후 급락) 가능성을 제시했다. 중앙은행이 주식을 사줄 수도 있다고 덧붙였다. 로저스는 자신이 시장 타이밍에 서툴다고 강조하며, 시청자들이 경계심을 갖고 대비해야 한다고 권했다.
다듬은 글
the next bear market is going to be the worst in my lifetime because of all this staggering amount of debt nearly every government every central bank in the world has been printing huge amounts of money and borrowing is spending huge amounts of money it's never happened like this in the history of the world never in recorded history we've seen so much excess i'll call it excess they think it's normal they think it's fine and this has caused many markets to go up a lot you know if you want to build a bridge it takes a long time but if you want to invest and you have a lot of money floating around you just go on the internet and in five seconds you can be you can invest in anything you want to and that's what's been happening and that's what's continuing to happen it there might be signs that's beginning to slow down the chinese seem to be cutting back some not a lot well not a lot but they're cutting back they're not expanding other countries say they're cutting back us and the us says oh maybe we should cut back some someday but in the meantime there's gigantic amounts of money floating around it's going into markets it's going into the real economy as well uh it's artificial if you see some of the things that you know the shipping business is just unbelievably hot right now because there's so much money floating around the the bad news is these things always end and the better they get the worse they get when they end and as i said we've never seen anything like this in recorded history so be worried i'm not short i haven't so showing anything but uh i am certainly worried as i look around the world bonds are clearly in a bubble bonds have never been this expensive in the history of the world not in recorded history anyway property in many places you go to korea you go to new zealand you go many places property is certainly in a bubble stocks many stocks i mean amazon goes up every day 10 cent goes up every day samsung goes up every day so some stocks performing above them but there you have stocks property bonds all in bubbles are forming bubbles the only thing that's still cheap commodities silver's down 60 percent from its all-time high sugars down 70 percent from its all-time high oil is down 52 i mean these are not bubble numbers when you talk about big big declines historic declines but with all the money being printed the the asset class in the world that i prefer at the moment would be commodities because they're cheap when everything else is booming i'm not sure uh i know it's going to end badly i still if something comes good comes along that's good i'll buy it but adam i know this is going to end very very very badly to repeat the better it gets the worse it's going to get when it comes to an end i would suspect that when it ends we're going to have the worst bear market in my lifetime in 2008 we had a big bear market problem because of too much debt adam since 2000 debt in 2008 the debt everywhere skyrocketed unbelievable even china has debt now china didn't have debt 20 years ago 15 years ago but even china has a lot of debt now who's going to save us the chinese saved us in 2009 because they started had a lot of money saved for a rainy day and they started spending it they don't have a lot of money to spend now who's going to save us north korea it's going to end someday and it's going to end badly when it when it ends uh you you said either currency collapse or economic collapse you have both you know you can have one and then it leads to another uh in the 30s we had both for instance around the world and then we had war as shooting war and that's the bad the really bad news is often in history when you have really really bad times especially worldwide it winds up in shooting wars it certainly did after the 30s um so it's not it's not good news i don't see good news i repeat that in 2008 and on we had horrible problems with too much depth since then the debt has gone through the roof by unbelievable amounts and i know that's going to end bad i don't want to be scared of people or anything else i own shares i'm not short anything as we sit here right now and i if you know something for me to sell short i doubt if i would because i'm just i know how much money they can print but i do know it's going to come to an end and all of us should should probably watch wealthy on to get prepared or to get worried if we watch if we know what's going on we'll get worried and if we get worried we'll probably get prepared then we might survive some people came out of the 30s very rich most didn't most lost huge amounts of money we've seen this movie before we know how it is we don't care what how much money you print um so that in that kind of scenario we go down in october and this is not a projection of but it's not a prediction this is just a scenario go down in october they print a lot have the big year in rally and then 2002 2022 is a serious problem as i said the next bear market is going to be the worst in my lifetime because of all this staggering amount of debt when the bureaucrats and the central bankers see problems they're going to do everything they can to save their jobs so they're going to print even more money as you point out they may buy stocks you know in japan the bank of japan buys etfs i own japanese etfs he's got more money than i do if he's got unlimited amounts of money i want to own some as well but so my point is that i would suspect that most of these guys will do their best to get things up again we will have then we'll have that last rally now i'm a horrible market timer adam so you shouldn't rely on me at all but that's the way i anticipate what's going to happen we will have a maybe even a blow-off you know many markets i've seen markets end in blow-offs it just gets so crazy that if you remember 1999 2000 probably it ended in a blow-off uh i've seen them before kuwait 20 30 years ago it said japan in the late 90s uh late 80s huge blow off i mean it's just staggering how much the japanese market you know the japanese market is down today 30 over 30 percent from where it was in 1990.
over 30 years and it's still so it just shows you what kind of huge blow-off they have and also how many problems japan has but that's another another conversation um so that's my how i anticipate things happening in the future but adam if it were that easy we'd all be rich this is pretty clear that when you have bad times there is usually social unrest people aren't happy and if we do in fact have the worst bear market of my lifetime which i don't see how we can avoid if and when that comes they're gonna be a lot of very very unhappy and angry people and one difference in now in the past is people really get angry now they think that you can't do that to me um you know in this in the 30s people were a little more disciplined a little more understanding of what was going on in the world they weren't happy there were protests there were there was some not much violence in the u.s anyway since that's what we're talking about but people were a bit more accepting of the system no adam look out the window nobody accepts anything now you can't do that to me it's your fault it's not my fault so no we're certainly going to have social unrest certainly in the u.s but in other countries as well i mean i would let me repeat you should watch wealthy on you find out what's going on if you do you'll get worried and then you'll get prepared because adam it's very clear this history shows that when things go really wrong you
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