저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 미국이 역사상 최대 채무국이 되었고 해외 군사 주둔 등으로 과잉 확장 상태이므로 큰 경제 위기가 올 가능성이 높다고 본다. 다만 그는 하이퍼인플레이션 시나리오와 영국식 통화가치 하락 중 후자에 가깝다고 보며, 달러 가치는 계속 떨어질 것으로 전망한다. 2008년 위기는 과도한 부채 때문이었고, 이후 부채는 전 세계적으로 급증했기 때문에 다음 위기는 생애 최악이 될 수 있다고 경고한다. 옐런과 파월의 '문제없다'는 낙관론은 신뢰하지 않는다. 미국 젊은 세대가 물려받을 부채 부담은 엄청나며, 사회보장연금 등 대규모 부외채무가 달러 신뢰를 흔들 수 있다고 본다. 그러나 연금 자체가 지급 불능으로 갈 것이라고는 보지 않는다. 인플레이션 대비책으로 금과 은을 보유하고 있으며 앞으로 더 살 계획이라고 밝힌다. 금·은은 위기 시 급등할 것이라고 전망한다. 타이밍은 잘 맞추지 못한다고 인정한다. 원자재 지수에도 투자 중이다. 원자재 가격이 오르면 곧 인플레이션이므로 원자재 전반을 보유하는 것이 방어 수단이라고 설명한다. 전쟁 중 주식시장에 투자했을 때 큰 수익이 난 사례(영국, 일본, 독일)를 들며, 재난 시 매수가 큰 수익으로 이어질 수 있다고 언급하지만 전쟁을 바란다는 의미는 아니라고 선을 긋는다. 인플레이션이 일시적(transitory)이라는 연준 입장에 동의하지 않으며, 공급망 문제 외에 구조적 인플레이션 압력이 더 크다고 본다. 미국 주식시장은 10여 년간 큰 문제 없이 상승해 왔지만, 과잉 부채 구조 때문에 조정 또는 위기가 올 수 있다고 전망한다.
다듬은 글
you know there are two camps one camp thinks that america the united states is headed for a hyper-inflationary event like zimbabwe and the weimar republic and therefore you just have to pile into gold and silver and watch it skyrocket another camp thinks that we're going to be like the british empire right which has devalued its currency over the last 2000 years and they're still standing and seem relatively okay where do you think america is headed america is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world we have troops in over a hundred countries there are people who would say that we're overextended financially economically militarily and it looks like they might be right so yes no i worry it's not a good time to be young in america because what the young people are going to inherit is mind-boggling and the symptoms the money burning the debt etc have always led to the problem the kind of problems you're talking about i don't think it'll happen in 2001 or 2021 or even 2022 but it's on the way yeah that's really interesting because just thinking about what the investment implications are of this kind of event happening because like great britain if you had bought their stock market during world war ii you would have made an absolute fortune because i think it just went straight up from that so it's like how bad will it get essentially in america if devaluing the currency seems to be everyone's go-to move if you buy just about any country in the middle of a war it goes straight up if you bought japan you if you were careful you still came out making a lot of money or germany even though both countries were destroyed um one of the things i have learned is if you buy in a catastrophe you often make a lot of money so i'm not advocating that we have a war that's so that we can all buy in wartime or anything but but your point is good yes britain would was great but the people who stayed in britain um didn't have a great life their standard of living compared to what it was before it was not the same country it's not the same world printing money never you know endlessly will lead you to that kind of situation where your standard living goes down and that's a great education because i mean yeah just looking at the history i see the british stock market go up but you're saying there was terrible standard of living there were problems with hyperinflation and i i do compare us to to the british empire because they had the reserve currency once and they lost it so it's really good to know are we in the kind of period where the federal reserve just props up the stock market and in local currency it just goes up forever and there's never really a big kind of correction what do you think basically yes my experience and my observation is that all of this money printing is it has to go somewhere it takes a long time to build a bridge or a factory but it's very easy to go online and you buy as much of anything as you want and that's what's happening everybody has a lot of money in their pocket there is a lot of money around and it's going into financial assets uh will that last forever it never has but you say maybe it will maybe it will this time isn't is the inflation due to supply chain disruption in the united states transitory and we'll just go away as soon as the big deflationary pressures like automation globalization immigration you know all that keeping labor costs down will the inflationary trends kind of supersede this potentially transitory inflation well washington says that this is transitory and you know if you believe the head of the central bank and that secretary of the treasury then you don't have to worry this everything is going to be great look out the window everything is going to be fantastic no worries no worries no worries i happen to be of a different view uh first of all the u.s stock market has gone up what 10 12 years without a serious problem other than some short gigantic disruptions but nothing serious that's never happened in american history and maybe maybe elliot maybe it is different this time you know janet yellen says don't worry we have solved the problems we won't have problems economic problems again she's got degrees from two ivy league universities so maybe she knows what she's talking about i happen to know she's wrong we will have problems again and when they come it's going to be horrible 2008 we had a problem because of too much debt eliot since 2008 the debt everywhere has skyrocketed skyrocketed by gigantic amounts so it would be my view that the next time we have a problem is going to be the worst in my lifetime given that the debt is so i mean i don't that may sound like some kind of wild statement but i look out the window the debt is there the debt goes higher every day i know what it caused in 2008 it's got to be worse next time around but mrs mrs uh younglin says no don't worry it's not going to happen there again and mr powell says the same thing right so are you seeing kind of the big obligations and with social security and just you know the big off-balance sheet obligations for all the kind of the retired baby boomers as being like the equivalent of wartime reparations that we have to pay that are impossible to pay is that kind of what you see you know kind of like these big obligations kind of tipping us over the edge of people losing confidence in the dollar social security will be paid so the question is that that kind of default will prob i cannot see that happening in the u.s however the value of the money is certainly going to continue to decline as i said the british pound went down 80 against the value of the us dollar which replaced it as the world's reserve currency i'm sure that the value of the us dollar is going to continue to decline everybody watching this knows that a dollar is not what it used to be so there has to be some sort of way that young americans can protect themselves right there has to be some way of just protecting wealth and maybe even doing well in a hyperinflationary environment or even an inflationary environment and would that be precious metals i own silver and gold uh i plan to buy more sometime in the future my timing is never very good but i will definitely buy more of both because before this is over both are going to skyrocket uh mrs yellen and mr powell say no don't worry about leave gold and silver alone you don't need it you don't that's a that's antique that's okay well i'm an old peasant elliot and i know all of us old peasants know when things go wrong we want to have a little silver over in the closet we're going to have a little gold under the bed because we know that when things collapse gold and silver will take it will help you won't take care of it will help you so i i am buying go boat and i will buy more i'm also buying commodity indexes because by definition if commodities go higher that's inflation i mean if the price of rice goes up that's inflation so i own rice i own agricultural commodities i own all commodities through an index because by definition if they're going to drive up prices those will benefit you
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