저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인이 기술적 헤드앤숄더 천장을 완성하며 대폭락했고, 단기 항복성 매도 이후에도 하락 추세가 끝나지 않았다는 결론. 비트코인은 하루 만에 약 38,000달러에서 3,000달러 가까이(약 20%) 급락했으며, 위험자산과 동조화되어 안전자산이 아님이 입증되었다고 주장. 금은 같은 날 한때 15~17달러 상승했다가 연준 의사록 발표 후 상승분을 반납했으나, 암호화폐 보유자들이 헤지 수단으로 금을 사야 한다고 권고. 비트코인은 저점 30,000달러 부근에서 반등해 약 38,500~39,000달러에서 거래되었으나 저항선(42,000달러)을 돌파하지 못했고, 더 낮은 저점을 갱신할 가능성이 크다고 전망. 헤드앤숄더 넥라인 목표치가 충족되었으므로 횡보 가능성이 있지만, 강세장 재개나 수주·수개월 내 65,000달러 회복은 의문시. 이더리움도 4,000달러 이상에서 1,800달러대(2,000달러 하회)로 더 큰 폭 하락. 일론 머스크의 '다이아몬드 손 이모지' 트윗으로 촉발된 반등은 실질 정보가 없으며, 머스크가 테슬라 비트코인을 아직 매도하지 않은 것은 오히려 향후 매도 물량이 남아 있다는 약세 신호라고 해석. 비트코인은 펀더멘털 없이 기술적 분석과 머스크 트윗에만 좌우되는 순수 투기라고 평가. 결론: 암호화폐 전반에 대한 강한 약세 견해이며, 금을 헤지 자산으로 활용할 것을 권고.
다듬은 글
the one asset class that i really want to focus on today is bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general which really crashed today now that doesn't mean i think the bottom is in it's not but we certainly got a short-term capitulation type sell-off which is something i have been anticipating and warning about for the last couple of weeks on this podcast as i've been watching bitcoin carving out a classic head and shoulders top and to me there was an extreme amount of complacency in the crypto community with respect to this ominous technical sign and it seemed pretty obvious to me that we were going to get a pretty big sell-off and we did we got the whole thing today in fact the big drop happened between about i think 8 30 and 9 o'clock in the morning eastern time that's where bitcoin fell from about 38 000 to about 3 000 within a half hour that is a 20 decline in one half an hour i mean one thing that today's action should do once and for all is settle the debate as to whether or not bitcoin is a safe haven store of value inflation hedge like gold or whether it's a risk asset and today bitcoin followed all the risk assets lower in fact it probably led the risk assets lower gold was up about 15 16 17 early this morning now it initially sold off early in the morning in fact i think gold sold off even before bitcoin but when bitcoin started to crash in that half hour gold came back from about a 10 or 15 loss into the black and ultimately it had about a 17 rally it ended up surrending those gains later in the day after the release of the fed minutes which i'm going to get to in the second half of this podcast for now i want to continue to talk about the crypto carnage but crypto bitcoin went down with risk assets in fact people seem to be rotating into gold as a hedge against the weakness in crypto which is what i have been saying all along that the people who own crypto and who are speculating in crypto should try to hedge their crypto portfolio by buying gold because gold is a safe haven store value it can rise when other assets are falling bitcoin again proved today it is not non-correlated or uncorrelated it correlated perfectly with all these other high-risk stocks that were crashing except bitcoin crashed much more now it has recovered a good chunk of those losses the low was just over 30 000 as i am recording the podcast we're trading between thirty eight thousand five hundred and thirty nine thousand the highest we got on the snapback was a little over forty thousand the interesting thing was the rally couldn't carry it back to forty two thousand which was the spike low i think from yesterday so the people who bought that dip and who thought they were so smart well we went lower today now of course a lot of people are excited about the fact that we recovered from thirty 000 and that's all everybody is talking about you see it's recovered buying the dip works well buying the dipped worked yesterday at least that's what people thought until we had a bigger dip today and today's dip buying is only going to work until we take out the low which we will do now interestingly enough this collapse down to 30 000 really fulfills the objective of the head and shoulders top if you actually measure the neckline this is about what i was looking for to complete that pattern so we could easily go sideways for some time digesting this big sell-off but i don't think that this completion of this head and shoulders top means that the bear market is over and a new bull market is going to be born and we're going to be back above 65 000 in the next few weeks for the next few months i really doubt it because if you look at the technical damage really done to the bitcoin chart and that's really all bitcoin has is technical analysis because there are no fundamentals because there's nothing fundamental to analyze it's all technicals ether actually had a worse day than bitcoin ether got down below 2 000 i think 1800 and change it was above 4 000 just the other day i mean so all these currencies uh just in a bloodbath not currencies i really shouldn't even call them currencies they're tokens they're digital tokens but the point i just made earlier is that the debate should be settled now nobody could look at the type of action that we had today in bitcoin and go away with the belief that if they're buying bitcoin they're buying something safe they're buying something stable they're buying something as a hedge you know a safe haven none of that is true this is pure gambling in fact the funniest part about today's rally off the lows is the catalyst was none other than a elon musk tweet you would think the crypto community had enough of elon musk no whenever he tweets out something that's pro bitcoin they love him again because this is all this market has it lives and dies by an elon musk tweet and that means elon musk can destroy this market anytime he wants all he has to do is tweet something out why would you want to put your life savings into a crypto asset and just hope and pray that somebody as unstable as elon musk just doesn't decide to completely wipe you out with an ill-timed tweet and all it takes is one or two words or memes he just can tweet out an emoji and and you're done in bitcoin in fact the tweet that launched a five or six thousand dollar rally in bitcoin because i think we're around 35 000 so we had bounced a bit off the lows before elon musk posted his tweet and all he tweeted was tesla has and then an emoji of a diamond and then an emoji of a pair of hands in other words diamond hands and what that's supposed to mean in the crypto community is you have strong hands right because diamonds are strong you have strong hands which means you're holding you're huddling you're not selling your bitcoin so the fact that elon musk tweeted out the fact that tesla is potentially holding on to its bitcoin and not selling despite the collapse this sparked a rally why this should spark a rally it makes absolutely no sense because number one musk didn't actually say anything with this tweet i mean all he did is tweet out a emoji of a diamond and a pair of hands you think that's gonna stop tesla from selling their bitcoin if that's what they want to do i mean i don't even think that's somehow inside information or fraud i mean elon musk could always say what i tweet out a diamond in a pair of hands what's the big deal he could easily be selling bitcoin despite the fact that he tweeted out diamond hands but let's assume that elon musk is being honest and tesla hasn't sold why is that bearish because it means he still has the bitcoin to sell i mean if the market has crashed by 50 and musk hasn't sold a satoshi since the original 10 sale that he talked about and you think this is bullish that's bearish because had he already sold at least the market would have absorbed the selling and now maybe it can move forward but now the market knows that you've got elon musk who's got one foot out the door already on bitcoin he's already losing interest in it it could be very easy for musk to just get rid of his bitcoin especially when the price is still higher than i believe his cost base is although it may not be there for long at the rate that this thing is dropping you
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