저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 인플레이션이 경기침체를 촉발하고, 연준이 이를 막기 위해 돈을 더 찍으며 달러 붕괴 위기가 올 것이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션 → 침체 경로: 물가 상승으로 소비자가 지출을 줄이고, 재량지출 업종에서 대규모 해고가 발생해 실업률이 오를 것이라고 본다. 연준의 딜레마: 침체 상황에서 연준은 경기부양을 택해 돈을 더 찍을 것이며, 이는 인플레이션을 가속화하는 자기강화 악순환이라고 주장한다. 과거 정상화의 한계: 2010년대 연준이 금리를 0에서 2%로 올리고 대차대조표를 축소할 수 있었던 것은 시장이 연준을 믿었기 때문이었으나, 현재 부채가 훨씬 많아 같은 조치는 불가능하다고 본다. 이제 시장도 연준을 믿지 않을 것이라고 한다. 금리 인하/동결 전망: 연준은 금리를 영원히 낮게 유지할 것처럼 행동할 것이며, 금리 인상으로 버블을 터뜨리지 않을 것이라고 본다. 달러·국채 리스크: 미국의 대규모 무역적자로 달러가 전 세계에 넘쳐나고 있고, 해외 투자자들이 달러 자산(국채 포함)에서 이탈하면 달러 가치가 폭락할 수 있다고 주장한다. 달러가 5~10% 급락하고 금 가격이 수백~1,000달러 급등하는 시나리오를 언급하며, 아르헨티나식 위기를 예상한다. 신용스프레드 확대: 기업채·지방채 금리가 급등하면 연준이 회사채·지방채까지 매입하는 QE 확대로 대응할 것이나, 이는 더 많은 통화 발행을 의미한다고 본다. 위기 전환점: 정치적으로 행동하지 않는 비용이 행동하는 비용보다 커질 때, 즉 달러 붕괴와 물가 급등 상황에서야 정책 전환이 일어날 것이라고 주장한다. 구조적 문제: 장기간 부채로 문제를 미뤄온 결과 잘못 배분된 버블 경제의 근본 문제가 더 커졌으며, 구조조정 없이는 해결이 불가능하다고 본다. 이 영상은 2021년 7월 기준 발언이며 특정 종목에 대한 직접적 매수·매도 권유는 없다.
다듬은 글
i still can't see why this would not be trans i can't see why it would continue on see well here's what i actually think is going to happen i think that the next recession that we have in america is going to be triggered by inflation i think it's going to be rising prices that causes americans to cut back on their spending right even if they're spending more money they're spending more money on less stuff right because they're just paying higher prices and so if i'm spending more money on food if i'm spending more money on energy on insurance on on maintenance on health care on stuff like that i have less money for discretionary spending and that's where you're going to see big layoffs right a lot of businesses that make a living off discretionary spending they're going to be going out of business in addition a lot of companies that are going to see big increases in their costs they're going to try to offset that and one way is going to be by reducing head count of course so i think you're going to see a pickup in unemployment and a recession that's actually caused uh by inflation so now you have inflation going up but you have an a weak economy now what is the fed going to do they have to make a choice right do they want to try to stimulate the economy or fight inflation well clearly they're going to go for stimulate the economy so what they're going to be doing is the effect effectively pouring gasoline on a fire they're going to start printing more money even as inflation is accelerating and so that is going to cause the stampede of the out of the dollar to accelerate as people start to see that the fed is stepping on the gas not the brakes right with inflation uh and you know in the weaker the economy gets the more money the fed is going to print the more money they print the higher the inflation the higher the inflation the weaker the economy so it becomes a self-perpetuating spiral as inflation weakens the us economy the fed prints more money to try to soften the blow or stimulate the economy which makes the inflation problem worse which hurts the economy even more so there's just i don't see how we get out of this i mean the way we got out of it the last time was because we did a taper a bit i mean they shrunk the balance sheet from uh three and a half trillion uh down to 2.8 or something like that um but they're not going to be able to shrink it from 10 or 15 wherever to at all and they were able to get interest rates from zero back up to two they're not going to be able to do that again because we have so much more debt but also remember the fed was able to fool the markets the big part about uh the the you know the attempt to normalize interest rates or the attempt to shrink the balance sheet was the fact that the fed was telegraphing its intentions to the market and the markets believed the fed they believed the fed was going to shrink the balance sheet they believed the fed was going to normalize interest rates and so the dollar rose based on those beliefs and that helped keep everything going but nobody is going to be dumb enough to believe the fed's lies again i mean i was warning that the fed was lying the last time people didn't believe me but i i think this time they're gonna they're more likely to believe people like me than the fed because who's gonna believe that the fed is ever gonna be able to shrink this balance sheet if they couldn't shrink the smaller one or they're ever going to normalize rates now and in fact i don't even think they're even going to try to bluff it they're just going to assume or pretend that we can keep interest rates here forever we can print all the money we want um and so i i don't see the stop that you're looking for that that that's gonna turn this off you know now the only thing in my mind that may force the government to do the right thing would be a real dollar and sovereign debt crisis you know argentina style i mean if we really start to see the dollar crashing you know going down five ten percent overnight you know acting like the peso right or something like like that right we really see the dollar tanking we start to see like the price of gold going up several hundred dollars five hundred dollars maybe a thousand dollars in a day or you know a few years we start to see a real crisis we you know you can't give away us treasury bonds right that yield you know then maybe they'll they'll they'll have to you know do the right thing but i mean the consequences there are going to be horrific i'm doing the right thing so the consequences of not doing the right thing or even more horrific got it so in terms of let's say i'm just trying to see what you're seeing that would cause that so maybe the treasuries in china so you got a trillion there japan's got a trillion the uk's got half a trillion are you maybe alluding to maybe those countries dumping their treasuries i mean what are you seeing that's going to weaken the dollar so much apart from what we've already discussed remember we have these record trades deficits so we're flooding the world with dollars now that they don't need and and so the only reason the dollar isn't crashing is because people are investing those dollars in u.s assets but once they lose confidence in the future value of the dollar then they won't want those assets and so there's no buyers for dollars and yes i do think that the world is going to look to get out of not only u.s treasuries but all debt denominated in the u.s currency and remember i think what the fed is going to do is right now the fed is monetizing government debt right mortgages uh government bonds but as the world wants out of u.s dollars you're gonna start to see those credit spreads really blowing out because you're going to see big increases in corporate yields in municipal bonds and i think the fed is going to respond to that by expanding its qe program to include more municipal bonds and corporate bonds because it doesn't want corporate rates to go up but the only way to stop them from going up is if the fed becomes the lender and the buyer of these bonds but in order to do that they have to print even more money that nobody wants yeah that's um so you know we we we've backed ourselves into a quarter there is no way out of it but a dollar crisis and that's not really a way out of it that's just having to confront it as opposed to kicking the can down the road which we've been doing but because we've kicked the can down the road for so long we have postponed having to deal with the underlying consequences or not the consequences of the underlying problems of our economy of our dysfunctional uh misallocated bubble economy and so all of those fundamental problems are much bigger because it's been so long and we haven't had to you know restructure yeah yeah so okay let's let's get on to the um what you're talking about with the interest rate rises so so i believe and correct me if i'm wrong your your opinion is the fed aren't going to write raise the interest rates because they will kill and destroy this recovery that they've created through qe and other things but right it's not a recovery remember it's just it's a bubble so they'll prick their own bubble by raising rates and they don't want to prick the bubble yeah i'm talking about the recovery in terms of um how the public has seen it i'm not talking from from right right the public thinks we're recovering but the reality is we're sicker than ever we haven't recovered from anything at all yeah yeah so what do you see as the tipping point what is the tipping point that that peter schiff would change his mind on the fed not raising interest rates is it five percent inflation ten percent twenty percent fifty percent what is the tipping point in your mind well i said the tipping coin is going to be a crisis where the political consequences of not acting may appear worse than the political consequences of acting i mean right now nobody wants to raise interest rates and crash the stock market crash the real estate market just keep on printing money everything is fine uh but when we come to a point where everything is not fine because the dollar is collapsing and prices are surging and maybe the stock market is going down anyway or you know because the everything is so bad they may feel that okay it's already horrible we might as well you know do what we need to do because we're probably not going to get reelected anyway um but things are going to get really bad but that is going to happen
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