저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 피터 시프는 정부 지출과 연준의 완화정책이 인플레이션을 만들며, 이는 세금과 같아 서민이 가장 큰 피해를 본다고 주장한다. 인플레이션 원인: 정부가 적자 재정으로 지출하면서 새 돈을 찍어내고 있어 물가 상승은 사실상 정부가 걷는 세금이다. 적자 규모가 기록적이며 지출을 크게 줄이는 것 외에 인플레이션을 줄일 방법은 없다고 본다. 연준 정책 비판: 연준은 주식·부동산·정부를 떠받치기 위해 금리를 인위적으로 낮게 유지하고 채권을 매입해 돈을 풀고 있다. 이 때문에 인플레이션이 불가피하며, 1970년대보다 더 심한 인플레이션을 중산층과 저소득층이 겪을 것이라고 주장한다. 연준의 대응 한계: 연준은 과거 서브프라임 때처럼 문제를 부인하며 시장을 안심시키고 있다. 실제로는 인플레이션을 잡을 능력이 없고, 긴축하면 2008년보다 심각한 금융위기와 국가부채 디폴트 가능성이 있어 행동하지 못한다고 본다. 자산가격 왜곡: 10년물 미국채 금리가 1.4% 수준으로 물가상승률보다 낮아 현실을 반영하지 않는 '환상'이라고 평가한다. 밈주식, 암호화폐 등 거의 모든 자산이 버블 상태이며 주택 버블 이후 가장 위험한 상황이라고 경고한다. 정치적 문제: 바이든 행정부와 의회는 표를 얻기 위해 무상 지원을 늘리고 있으며, 일하지 않는 사람들에게 돈을 주면서 생산 없이 물가만 올린다고 비판한다. 정치인들은 문제를 뒤로 미루기만 한다고 본다. 달러 및 환율 전망: 연준이 달러를 무한정 찍어내면 달러가 폭락할 것이라고 예상한다. 미국 수입 수요가 줄어 신흥국 상품 가격은 내려가고 신흥국 통화는 강세가 되며, 미국인은 해외 상품을 사기 어려워진다고 전망한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 시프는 장기적으로 인플레이션과 달러 약세가 지속되고 금융 버블이 터질 것이라는 비관적 전망을 제시한다. 단기 투자 방향을 명시한 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
uh peter i i've been walking obviously i'm a news a junkie i'm always trying to figure out what's going on i i cover a wide um breadth of media and there seems to be a lot of questions about the severity of uh the inflation that we're experiencing how long it's going to last and actually where it's coming from uh i know this is your uh you're one of your great specializations and i compliment you i see you all the time on a variety of programs what is your take here because if i can just add the little salt and pepper to it it's been politicized as well as usual go ahead peter well you laid it out correctly in the intro inflation is a tax and the source is government because that's who taxes us uh the only way to reduce inflation would be to dramatically cut government spending because government spending is being paid for through inflation we're running record budget deficits and so instead of taking our money and spending it the government is taking our purchasing power by printing new money and spending that so the increase in prices that we're all experiencing is the tax that we are paying to finance government in addition the federal reserve is trying to prop up the stock market prop up the real estate market and prop up the u.s government it can only do that by keeping interest rates artificially low but in order to do that the fed has to keep printing money to buy bonds so as long as the fed is artificially suppressing interest rates it is going to have to create inflation to do it and because we have so much debt the fed is now forced to keep interest rates at zero and that so unfortunately average americans the middle class and the working poor are going to suffer the most severe bout of inflation in u.s history far greater than anything experienced during the decade of the 1970s is the fed being responsible here because i mean it's just not over the last 14 months or so that we've seen increase uh huge injections here we've we've seen a lot of really easy money for a long time now and and then we got super charged go ahead peter yeah well remember federal reserve is never responsible uh so why should they change now but remember one of the other things the fed is never is honest right the fed is all about spin it's all about trying to ins so if you recall early in the mortgage crisis when the subprime market blew up and the threat to the entire mortgage market was obvious as was the threat to the economy what did the federal reserve do they came out and reassured everybody that there was nothing to worry about that the subprime problems were contained why did they do that because they were hoping that by denying that the problem existed maybe they could somehow uh will it out of existence and somehow get people to change their behavior in the face of what should have been an obvious crisis and they were hoping to avert it and i think they're doing the same thing now the fed has absolutely no ability to fight inflation so why even acknowledge that it's a threat when you can't do anything about it so the only thing the fed can do is deny lie to the markets tell everybody that it's all temporary and that explains their failure to act but the real failure to act is because it's impossible because the only way to fight inflation is to turn off the monetary spigots to raise interest rates of card's economy that they've erected we have a worse financial crisis in 2008 the government would be forced to slash spending dramatically they may even have to default on the national debt who knows what would happen if the fed actually fought inflation so because they can't they're just denying the problem but there is absolutely no evidence to suggest what we're really experiencing is the beginning of a long overdue huge increase in the cost of living not only the result of the inflation that the fed has created since the pandemic but of all the inflation that we created before the pandemic that we've yet to deal with uh peter you know we've we talked about how economists look at this we have three economists on the panel here um and all of you make a lot of perfect sense to me but it's really a political problem at the end of the day because a lot of promises have been made promises are are going to be made here it's it's about how we get out of this crisis here and the powers that be decided you spend your way out okay and all three of you have enumerated so far in this program the immense dangers of it and they're not they they don't have the downside like the rest of us okay working people they're the ones that are going to suffer the most and they will be a backlash we at least three of us here remember the 1970s in stagflation go ahead peter well of course it is political i mean the biden administration every member of congress wants to give the voters something for nothing right the government wants to make sure that all the people who don't have jobs many of them of course are just choosing not to have jobs but the government wants to make sure that they have plenty of money to spend even though they didn't earn that money even though they didn't help produce any goods or provide any services the government wants to give the money to buy goods and services well where's the money coming from they're not raising taxes they're just spending the money and so the money is being created it's being conjured into existence by the federal reserve but that is inflation you see every single dollar that the federal government spends the american public has to cover the cost and so if they're not going to take our money through taxation they're going to take our purchasing power through inflation and so they print all this money the government spends the money but the federal reserve prints the money and it goes into the economy and now as non-productive unemployed people go to buy stuff they didn't help produce all that happens is the price goes up and it's amazing that people don't understand or they expect that we can have all this standing list all this government for free there is no such thing as a free lunch word spending is going to keep getting worse and of course as government spends more it weakens the economy which means even more spending inflation is going to go through the roof and we keep talking about the 1970s what we're going to experience is going to be far worse and in fact it probably already is worse than the 1970s if we were using the cpi that existed back then to measure prices right now we would see that the cpi is already rising at a faster rate than it ever did in the 1970s and we're just going up from here what we see here with all of this uh cash injections here is this huge i mean we talked about like the housing bubble but i think almost every sector is turned into a bubble right now it's really quite terrifying watching it here the amount of money that is being pumped in is over the last uh 14 months it's hard to comprehend and it's out there and it's just not housing it's just not one sector it seems to me this is like a perfect storm to collide go ahead peter oh sure because of the federal reserve and these reckless monetary policies just about every single financial asset is dramatically mispriced and that has you know tremendous distortions in the economy and massive negative implications just look at the bond market look at the yield on a 10-year u.s treasury which is below one and a half percent it's like 1.4 inflation is five times that and look at the yield there's no way that that yield reflects reality it reflects it reflects fantasy and everything is priced to fantasy you know you have the extreme examples in meme stops stocks or cryptocurrencies but the fed has done tremendous damage and there is no savior on the horizon that's going to do the right thing like paul volcker because the consequences are doing of doing the right thing are so horrific at this point that they're never going to be tried but of course the consequences of continuing to do the work the wrong thing are even more horrific but that's what's going to happen because politicians don't give a damn about that all they want to do is kick the can down the road as long as they can they don't care if they make the problem worse just so long as it blows up later rather than sooner and that is what is going to happen but i think on the emerging markets they're going to finally be the big beneficiaries because we're going to print the dollar into oblivion the dollar is going to crash and then what's going to happen is a lot of the goods that are being sent to the united states are no longer going to come to the united states because nobody here will be able to afford to buy them and so all those goods that are produced abroad will stay abroad and so prices will come down for people in emerging markets as their currencies go way up and things become cheaper for them as americans get priced out of all these markets because our currency is going to lose so much value that we can no longer afford to buy the things that we're buying now
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