저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현재 시장 가격은 통화·신용 팽창, 부의 격차와 정치 갈등, 중국의 부상이라는 세 가지 구조적 힘을 충분히 반영하지 못하고 있어 인플레이션과 정책 전환 위험이 커지고 있다. 현재 시장을 움직이는 핵심 힘은 세 가지다. 첫째, 금리가 0에 가까운 상태에서 정부가 소득보다 훨씬 많이 지출하며 돈이 대량으로 찍혀 시스템에 흘러들고 있다. 둘째, 빈부·정치적 격차로 인한 좌우 내부 갈등이 세금 정책과 자본 흐름을 바꾸고 있다. 셋째, 중국이 기존 패권국과 세계 질서에 도전하는 강대국 부상이 진행 중이다. 역사적으로 반복된 두 가지 힘도 있다. 기술과 발명의 변화가 가속되고 있어 삶에 큰 영향을 준다. 또한 기후 재해, 가뭄, 홍수, 팬데믹 같은 자연재해가 전쟁보다 더 많은 생명을 앗아가고 문명을 무너뜨려 왔다. 주식 가격은 지금 비싸지 않고 채권 대비로는 다소 높은 편이지만, 현금 대비로는 여전히 싸다고 본다. 채권은 매우 비싸다. 실질 금리는 단기와 장기 모두 크게 마이너스다. 장기 국채 실질수익률도 100bp 이상 마이너스로, 연 3~5% 수준의 구매력 손실이 예상된다. 이 때문에 저축 대신 차입과 실물·투자자산 보유가 유리해지고, 이 자금이 자산 가격을 밀어올린다. 인플레이션 압력이 커지고 성장이 상대적으로 강해지면 상황이 바뀐다. 시장의 핵심 질문은 연준과 각국 중앙은행이 언제 긴축으로 돌아서는지, 그리고 세금 정책이 어떻게 변하는지다. 경기 침체 원인에 대해서는, 유가 충격과 연준 긴축 모두 경제를 약화시킬 수 있다고 본다. 유가 충격은 부를 산유국으로 이전하고, 긴축은 수요를 줄인다. 어느 쪽이든 중앙은행이 돈과 신용을 얼마나 공급하느냐에 따라 결과가 달라진다. 출연자는 인플레이션이 '더럽게(ugly)' 올 것이며 현재 체제가 지속 불가능하다는 경고적 입장이다.
다듬은 글
very important to understand the paradigm that we're in and how that dynamic works and so as the inflation pressures become an issue and we have relatively let's say stronger growth those things will start to change and so the big question that the markets look at is how will that change as a result thank you for having me the very first sentence of the introduction in your book is this quote the times ahead will be radically different from those we've experienced in our lifetimes though similar to many times in history unquote do we see this today in current market prices and if so which ones um we certainly see it today in market prices and in everything that's happening so um there are three sometimes maybe we could stretch that to five big things that are happening and they are reflected in market prices and the dynamics behind them and their change will reflect will be reflected in changes in market prices and those three those three big ones are first that which is happening with money and credit in other words when you get close to zero interest rates and you spend a lot more money than you earn then the government does that that means that a lot of money is printed and it moves its way through the system in a way that is reflected in market prices and so that is what is happening now the second is the very large internal conflicts that we're having that are due to wealth gaps political gaps um and so on that influence the left and the right and the dynamic between them that affects tax policies that affects capital flows and the like and they're reflected in market prices and will at change as those circumstances change and the third big influence is the rise of a great power china to challenge the existing leading power and the existing world order and that is being reflected in market prices but will be reflected more as those circumstances change so those are the three big influences to answer your questions that are reflected maybe not yet adequately and we have to look ahead of what things will change the other two are that have been reflected through history and i didn't have a full appreciation of until i studied the last 500 years of history those two are technology and inventiveness changes we're accelerating the rate at which they are occurring and that adaptability and change is affecting our lives in big ways so you cannot ignore the technologically and inventiveness changes and the fifth are acts of nature you know the one thing that was interesting to me when i studied the last 500 years of history is that acts of nature and they could be climate related droughts and floods and pandemics had cost more lives and toppled more civilizations than anything else including wars so they are something that comes along um irregularly you know when you have the pandemic or the drought or that that event that comes along once in a hundred years or so they have had big effects too so pandemic is a reminder of those but those are the drivers and they will remain the main drivers and as they change prices will continue to change but if i look today say at equities prices they seem fine if i look at the 10-year yield for the us it's not crazy high should i just assume that these matters are more or less going to work out fine given those market prices or are those prices wrong no um i think you have to look at the dynamic behind those prices and i think i would look at them a bit differently regarding the dynamic behind those prices it is that we are spending more than we are earning by a lot individuals and the country as a whole and that that um needs we need money partially because of the political issues partially for all the reasons you that you know so a lot of debt and my debt is being created that is also producing the need for a lot of money and as a result of that we have very negative real interest rates real interest rates of short short-term interest rates are significantly negative and even bond yields real bond yields are over 100 basis points negative and so when one looks at the return of owning those bonds that is a a very bad return um it means that if you save in those assets and you put it away that you will lose buying power at probably a rate of three to five percent per year we can guess what inflation is and we could talk about that but you will lose that and that tax on your buying power makes one will not want to be saving in those assets that one it makes one want to borrow in those assets and the available of credit credit and the that set of circumstances drives money into other assets and into those assets are in um investment assets um as well as goods and services and so what we see now is that um stocks are not expensive um not very expensive maybe a little bit more so than normal relative to bonds which are very expensive but still not expensive in relation to cash and so they are all having unexpected returns that are comparatively low and we have an inflationary period so it's very important to understand the paradigm that we're in and how that dynamic works and so as the inflation pressures become an issue and we have relatively let's say stronger growth those things will start to change and so the big question that the markets look at is how will that change as a result and will the federal reserve and until central banks begin to tighten monetary policy because these things will change and what will tax policies be and the like and those things will affect market prices going forward it's unsustainable christina romer claims a lot of downturns are the result of fed contractions jim hamilton claims that some downturns are the result of high oil price shocks and you have a theory of debt cycles if you're just trying to portion out mentally how many of the cycles are fed contractionary shocks how many are oil shocks how many are dead cycles how do you see that landscape um i think that there is there's goods and services that exist in a certain quantity and then there's a certain amount of money and credit and they interact um and that throughout history if you have let's say an oil shock that is not accommodated by an easing of met um central bank policy in other words the production of more money and credit then if there was when i'm saying if there was the same money and credit and you had an oil shock then as oil goes up something else would have to go down and it would produce a set of circumstances one set of circumstances it wouldn't produce the same inflation it wouldn't produce um it would produce a consequence and it would produce a transfer of wealth from those who are selling the oil at a high price they get a they get gain wealth and it would produce a decrease in the wealth from those who are having to pay that higher price so for example it would make middle eastern countries richer and it would make american country companies and american entities poorer and that's what would happen in a world in which um we were to look at those items and that certainly can cause a downturn in the economy similarly now you can print money and credit you can create money and credit and it could have its effects but to answer your question about um do do oil shocks or fed policy have an effect the answer is both because for other reasons the tightening of money and credit reduces demand for things and as a result of the reducing the demand for things it weakens the economy so both an oil price shock or some other shock or a federal reserve tightening can cause the economy to weaken um but so that's sort of the answer to your question and then it would have different implications depending on whether the central banks provided more uh or less money and credit
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