저자: MikeJones · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 2022년 금리 인상·테이퍼링 예고 속에서 성장주는 밸류에이션 부담이 크며, 캐시 우드(ARK)는 유전체·헬스케어(텔레닥, 인텔리아, 크리스퍼)에 집중 투자 중이라는 영상. [연준·시장 환경] 파월 연준 의장이 테이퍼링 가속과 2022년 다회 금리 인상 가능성을 언급했다고 설명. 금리 인상과 유동성 축소로 고성장주 포트폴리오가 전반적으로 약세라고 진단. [캐시 우드 발언 요지] 혁신주 밸류에이션에는 이미 인플레이션 기대가 상당 부분 반영됐다고 주장. 2016년 말 금리 상승기에도 혁신주가 반드시 약세는 아니었다며 시장 확대 국면을 언급. 향후 주가 결정 요인은 금리·인플레이션보다 기업 펀더멘털이 될 것이라고 전망. [밸류에이션 관련] 우드는 목표 수익률 연 40%를 달성하더라도 멀티플이 FANG 수준으로 크게 압축되는 것을 가정. 시장이 고밸류 성장주에 대한 자금 조달 비용 상승을 어떻게 소화할지가 관건이라고 Mike Jones가 해석. [언급 종목 및 방향] 텔레닥(TDOC): 우드 보유 비중 높음, 5년 연복리 50% 이상 기대 언급(우드 발언 인용). 방향 긍정적. 인텔리아 테라퓨틱스(NTLA): 우드 대규모 보유, 유전체 성장 기대. 긍정적. 크리스퍼(CRISPR): 우드 보유, 유전체 시장 2025년까지 2배 성장 전망 인용. 긍정적. [리스크·조건] 유전체 산업은 미국 내 영리 의료 구조, 의료기기 업계 로비, 규제기관 인력 문제로 성장이 억제될 수 있다는 Mike Jones의 우려. 금리 인상으로 고성장 기업의 자금 조달 비용과 이익 실현 시점이 뒤로 밀릴 수 있음. [출연자 전망] 캐시 우드: 고성장 혁신주 장기 낙관, 단기 하락은 밸류에이션 압축을 수용하는 과정으로 봄. Mike Jones: 유전체 성장 잠재력은 인정하나 미국 규제·수익 구조상 장기간 억제될 수 있다고 회의적.
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hey guys mike here so jerome powell spoke today and yes the fed is going to go ahead and increase the rate of tapering and they can see multiple interest rates hikes in 2022 and this lines up perfectly with the videos putting out today for you because kathy wood at arc invest did her monthly update and she was very honest in addressing inflation what it's done to the arc and best etfs and you know it's something if you hold gross stocks you definitely want to hear what she has to say she's pretty dang honest about it and there's one sector in particular that she is just all in on and you know she's betting big on she has a lot of money piled into this i'm going to show you three of those stocks you know why she's into them you'll hear her own words and the very end you know she gives a very plain or honest answer to a question she got on a bloomberg interview a few days ago as well and i like the honesty and you know this is one of those uphill battles if you're in gross stocks you know you look at your portfolio it's pretty much red i'm talking high growth stocks and so with the interest rates hikes with you know less liquidity going to be in the market in 2022 it is interesting times okay and so first let's get into what kathy has to say you know about inflation and what she sees happening with growth stocks especially in her portfolio could you provide a few examples of stocks that would thrive uh in a inflationary environment so innovation-based stocks um that would thrive in an inflationary environment well uh given the valuations uh that that we are seeing right now in the innovation space the this is the space that probably has incorporated more inflation expectations than any other part of the market so if we're right on the kinds of revenue growth that we're going to see in our strategies i think that the the inflation risk has has pretty much played out and that uh we would probably be able to that that the revenue and earnings growth rates uh would be able to play out now just to give you play out in the stock prices themselves um but could you share some some additional thoughts on kind of outlook for growth stocks in a a rising interest rate environment if that that happens in in 2022 and beyond sure well um we we got a um an interesting preview of the answer to that question in late 2016 so if you'll remember back then uh the the fed basically had said we are going to start increasing interest rates or they had already started i can't remember the the market uh the market began to run with this thesis that uh growth uh and inflation were going to pick up and in that quarter which was a nice quarter for uh for the broad-based indices uh our strategies were down but i remember saying during that time and after that time that um we did not think that um that this was an indication that innovation stocks growth stocks generally uh would be on the outs uh in fact we were looking at uh what was happening as a broadening out of the bull market so i know there's a pavlovian response interest rates and inflation up uh growth stocks down and that's not always the case um especially if just like this time in fact this time in spades the market has already decided that uh inflation and interest rates um we're going to to knock our kind of strategies off and uh so we've already had that happen and now i think fundamentals of the companies are going to be more the order of the day in terms of determining uh stock stock price behavior that's like i said that was from yesterday so it's hot off the presses what she believes and two things stuck out for me at least and what she said i'm curious to get your thoughts in the comments was one the very end she talked about evaluation will uh drive stock price right and i thought wow she's talking about institutions and you know for example what does all the institutions complain about uh about tesla for right the valuation that's why you kept shorting it and shorten it and obviously it's broke a lot of short sellers okay and it's performed very well uh they're very dominant company but what does that mean for these other companies who aren't who are just getting their legs underneath them who aren't a tesla right and so you know that's going to be interesting how that plays out plus saying the inflation's pretty much kind of baked into the cake right there's so many stocks that's why i showed you all those charts that she was speaking was that you know someone beat down 20 30 40 50 some of them more than that and so you know how much is baked in how much is still left to be baked in because of those interest rates hikes that's the one that probably worth more than any of the rest of them not the them stop buying bonds or anything because for high growth stocks to continue to keep those multiples up and grow at the rate they need to grow they're usually borrowing a lot of money raising a lot of money through stock bonds things like that and so that that's going to go up now right it's going to cost them more it's going to push their profit horizon down the road even more so how much are the institutions willing to you know get into these stocks now and hold on for even longer and wait and wait and wait so that's what we got to look at on that that was the two things i kind of took away from that even though there's a lot of good stuff in there and so you know looking at the sector she's pretty much been into and she really talks about a lot whenever you see her get interviewed is the genomics and healthcare sector in general and three stocks she's big time into you know i'm going to show you right now and then i'll show you why and the first one is teledogs which should be no shock it's the second biggest holding she has number one in her genomics etf and you're gonna in rk alone showed 961 million dollars you look in the rw she has 192 million dollars rg 379 million dollars arc f another 79 million dollars and so she is loaded up on the stock and here's why the chief technology officer and data scientist at teledoc right now has united the ai expertise of both lavongo which they bought again focused more on chronic diseases diabetes mental health and the data scientists at teledoc which was much more focused on the acute space and physicians and he's originally from memorial sloan kettering he is doing a phenomenal job at creating a data platform here the likes of which no one will have in the healthcare space in the case of teledoc i believe that our compound annual rate of return expectation for the next five years is north of fifty percent so if we're right on this idea that teledoc is becoming uh that healthcare uh certainly healthcare information backbone but healthcare backbone of the united states this is a very big idea and the other two issues loaded up on is intellia therapeutics ntla is the ticker and we see here on lucid tracking right here in the arcade she has around 563 million dollars worth of this one and rg another 193 million and then she loves crispr right i mean you're looking at an rk 448 million and then rg around 150 million and the reason why she loves these kind of stocks guys is simply because of the huge growth rate they're expecting in 2020 it counted around 22.7 billion they're expecting that to double in four years from now to 54.4 billion compound annual growth rate of 19 and this is where i come to you guys right because i'm torn on genomics teledocs is one thing that's healthcare i get it but the genomic side thing which we all know eventually should be the future now and i'm talking about the united states right here is where i'm going to talk about this and for those of you in healthcare please let me know in the comments what you think or if you're a genomics expert but you know people are surprised that these stocks have just been beat down and just hammered and hadn't gotten more love and stuff like that and so the one thing about genomic sector which i question especially the growth rate of it is yes it's supposed to be the future but as we've seen evs evs excuse me we're supposed to be the future in 2013 like then right and so but you sent me years it took tesla to actually even gain traction as far as the stock price and a company and it's simple and in america it's not what's best for us okay you understand the the reason why genomics will always be held down in this country it's going to take i think a lot longer than most people think and this is just my opinion and like i said give me years in the comments but here's my argument to that there's a great documentary i believe it's called the bleeding edge on netflix go watch it i learned a lot from it and actually did factually check a lot of that stuff it's actually true and so understand in america at least remember healthcare in america is for-profit it's not like that in a lot of countries okay there's a reason why you hear athletes famous athletes going to europe right you get stem cells injecting other kind of medical um services done for them and not here okay because here it's all about surgery okay you understand the medical device uh industry is like i think it's like three or four times the size of the pharmaceutical industry and they're very quiet but we know what kind of hole the pharmaceutical industry has in our government how many checks they write and all that stuff to keep opioids and everything you know being subscribed to keep marijuana uh illegal on the same list as like crack cocaine and stuff okay there's a reason for that all right and so the medical device industry is much much much much bigger and they quietly write much bigger checks right we'll talk about i mean think about every time i'm going from a mri machine all the way down to a tongue depressor all that's medical equipment and then what they do to control it i found this out they take ex-ceos and board members and and they are put on these uh the government cdc and those kind of places to actually control it to make sure certain things don't get approved right because remember the old saying is the surgeon ain't cutting he making money okay and so for example that's why stem cells in this country have been so hard to get you know research and funding and try to break that through and other countries are way ahead of us light years ahead of us on that stuff because it don't make anyone near as much money right i mean they would rather you know instead why you think we can cure cancer or something you know because the treatments are so expensive they make so much profit off the treatments for get a cure right and that's not going to happen and so injecting stem cells in somebody's knee versus actually cutting them open and put a a knee replacement or hip replacement which is like 78 grand this country depending on what state you're in for hip replacement you know which one's gonna make more money it's gonna be the hit replacement okay and so that's my biggest question since we're the biggest you know market out there right biggest economy if ours is for profit and more profit will be made off of the surgeries and everything else the medical equipment everything else versus genomics and things like that where they can literally just give you a shot of something and say oh you're cured you know or we can cure like she's always said they can cure cancer cure all this stuff with it and i agree with her totally but are they factoring in the government part of this right have we learned from how long to the eb revolution to actually start to take place okay and that's no accident that's because ford and gm and all the rest of them decided to start going into evs right and so then they started getting the government change their mind and start putting out even more subsidies and things like that but they held tails down for a long time done a video on that showed you detailed video on that right there proved it to you and so that's just my question because that's my i guess my thesis and so i'm just curious to get your thoughts on that uh do you think it will suppress these companies how long do you think it will suppress these companies and you know in the stock price and all that good stuff so that that's what i'm uh that's where i'm coming from on that let me know what you think and the last thing i want to leave you with what kathy was said a few days ago which was when your etfs are down this much well when we go through a period like this of course we're going through soul searching saying are we missing something and we've doubled down on our research and we double down on our modeling what you should also know is to get to that 40 compound annual rate of return we assume massive multiple compression from today's levels if i can just finish one of the reasons our our multiples are so high right now is our companies are investing aggressively to capitalize on the five innovation platforms involving 14 technologies that we believe are going to scale exponentially during the next five years and so our we assume that the valuations are going to compress to fang like uh valuations so it's a serious compression of multiples assumed and we still get to that 40 compound annual rate of return and so you know let me know what you think guys i just want to put this out there again a lot of this came out yesterday around 2 30ish and so it's kind of hot off the presses but i wanted to combine it with what jerome powell was saying and everything and so let me know what you think in the comments all right and hit that like subscribe button if you did get anything out of this and i'll see you guys later you
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