저자: MikeJones · 외국인
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알리바바(BABA) 주가는 중국 규제 리스크로 1년여간 약 60% 하락해 130달러 선을 깨고 127달러까지 밀렸다. 발표자는 매수 찬반 두 진영을 비교 설명하며 자신은 중립 입장이다. [매수 측 근거] 브리지워터의 레이 달리오는 3분기 알리바바 보유를 131% 늘려 약 4억 8,700만 달러 규모로 만들었고, 찰리 멍거도 롱 포지션을 80% 이상 늘렸다. 밸류에이션은 PER 약 19배로 업종 평균 23배보다 낮고, PSR 약 3배로 업종 평균 4.5배보다 낮다. 월가 애널리스트 16명이 매수를 추천하며 목표가 평균은 현재가보다 약 70% 높은 수준(범위 170~275달러)으로 제시됐다. [매도 측 근거] 중국 당국의 규제 강화로 기술주가 대거 매도됐고, 알리바바는 벌금 28억 달러와 공동번영기금 155억 달러 등 약 183억 달러를 5년간 부담할 수 있다. 세율 우대 상실로 세 부담이 크게 늘어날 전망이다. 미국 SEC의 감사 기준 및 중국 정부 관여 여부 공시 요건을 맞추지 못하면 상장폐지 위험이 있다. 중국 GDP 둔화는 중국 내 매출 비중 높은 알리바바 실적을 직접 압박한다. [투자 전략] 발표자는 레벨 130 이탈 후 추가 하락 가능성을 언급하며, 지지선은 125달러와 115달러 부근으로 봤다. 바닥 확인 전 저점 매수는 피하고, 큰 비중이 아닌 도박성 자금으로 접근하라고 권했다. 1~2년 내 200달러 이상 회복 시 약 60% 수익을 기대할 수 있다고 봤다. 장기 전망은 중국 리스크 해소 여부에 달려 있다고 정리했다.
다듬은 글
hey guys mike here so today we're going to talk about alibaba stock or baba as you may know it and i never thought i'd do a video on this company but the truth is the stock has been beat down so much it has my attention and it's had it for a while it's been on the radar it's been waiting and waiting and it reached a key level today which is 130 hadn't reached that level since 2018 so now the risk reward gets so skewed in one you know area or one direction i should say that i have to pay attention to this okay and start you know i've already formed a plan of what i'm gonna do and so i want to at least bring to you you know and present you the two arguments right you got two camps one camp says stay away from alibaba stock don't buy it it's like a nuclear meltdown or something right and the other one is which is where ray dalio is and why he doubled his position in q3 which you'll see oh no this is why you want to buy the stock okay and there's multiple ways to play this i definitely get your insight for those who are in it for those who are thinking about getting into it and those who say no way no chance know how i would ever buy this stock okay and so if you're getting out of it please hit the like subscribe button for me guys i really appreciate that and let's go ahead and get into it by looking at the chart and this massive drop that continues for this company and start when alibaba's chart guys i mean you can see we're talking about a 60 percent drop in a little bit over a year's time which is pretty unbelievable and you know you see that key level at 130 right there well it breached it today into 127.
you haven't seen that since 2018 where it touched it twice and you have to go back to 2007 where it actually breached the 130 level so this has been was that four years and it's been published since 2014 you can see there's not a whole lot of support there you can make a case for 125 if you kind of spread that out a little bit from there you're looking around probably 115 ish somewhere in there and so this guy some people are holding the stock a little bit worried and for those of us who are looking to maybe even get into position whether it's a swing trade or whatever you know kind of licking our chops now and so the first argument i'm going to take you into is with the camp of the people who are pro alibaba and why they're getting in this stock and you know you want to talk about a big fall from grace it's probably been racking my brain trying to figure out a company that at this level that has fallen like this when it's not in a crash but actually in a bull market right and so amazon lost 90 percent back in the dot-com bubble but nowhere close to that ever since or anything to come out and think of so if you can think of one you know hidden description i just can't not think of one that's lost 60 of value in a bull market like this okay and so now let's get into the case of why these people love alibaba and why they really think they're gonna make a lot of money by owning this stock now now let's not forget guys i mean this company was the largest global ipo we've ever had okay and so that's where it started then you're looking at the top hundred digital companies and you might recognize some of these companies as we scroll down and they're number 11 right behind facebook for crying out loud right ahead of intel and then you're talking about when you look at the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds 2021 q2 rankings they rank number eight okay and there's a lot of stocks out there and they rank number eight guys and then of course the other big thing to look at is just the top analysts you still have even after this fall 16 buys one hold and zero sales you have an average of a 70 percent upward uh price target on this thing the low is 170 and then the high is 275.
you can see goldman just came out three days ago with a buy now you got another guy with two hundred dollars jp morgan 210 bank of america 209. you know and you just scroll down this list you can see everything is so much higher than what the stock is right now that's why a lot of people look in their chops thinking wow this thing can ever turn around start heading north they're going to make a substantial gain then of course there's ray dalia right bridgewater raises 1.25 billion before it's the largest china fund this just came out november 24th and what i mean when i say ray dalio basically goes all in on china and alibaba you know they raised 1.25 billion for its third investment fund in china okay not their first one and so they're looking at buying up chinese stocks especially alibaba but you'll see what they own there but first let's hear from the man himself and why he is making this bet i i just know china very well and i come as a perspective with a perspective as an investor i've been going there since 1984 i have i know um leaders and i know how they're thinking and i know the moves that they're making in a detailed way and i'm just trying to share what that perspective is in terms of the element of let's say a transfer of wealth or let's call it common prosperity yes there's a world in this world right now there is a much more there's a move to common prosperity not i think that um that that move what does it mean at a technical level that's not take your money away but here i i would say what are called progressives here are much more left than what we would call progressives or or whatever the chinese policies are doing um but yes worldwide there has to be common prosperity or let's call it broad prosperity and the question is whether this that's going to come about by productivity or not it doesn't mean that you're going to have like a communism that's going to take all of that there's going to be a lot of productivity in china and so again diversifying the portfolio and the man puts his money where his mouth is i should say your money where's where his mouth is because it's not his money it's everybody else's money but if you look at alibaba here he owns 487 million dollars worth just in the bridgewater hedge fund and you can see last quarter increased it by 131 percent an increase of shares by almost 2 million shares and he's not alone because charlie munger obviously has been you know beating the drum for alibaba for quite a while now and he boosted the long position ali by over 80 during q3 to over 302 000 shares and so of course a lot of people like to see you know guys like monger and ray dalio who have obviously well they're billionaires for a reason but they've been very successful in investment and everything and obviously they rode this thing all the way down dollar across the averaging in because i know i believe in the company the turnaround they also believe in what china's doing and the growth that's going to happen in china and so another reason people flock to it plus value investors you know they love those two guys and plus the valuation of bob has gotten almost absurd at this point in time i mean you're talking about a pde ratio of 19 when the industry averages what 23 i believe it is price of sales of around three and the industry average is around 4.5 and so it's just you know it really is almost absurd you don't think you can fall anymore it just keeps falling okay and the more it falls the and the more that valuation looks really good okay and especially with the success this company has had now of course that's the argument why people are really trying to get in this they're trying to hang on right and so what's the argument what's the camp that says stay away no matter how low it drops just stay away and as far as i'm concerned guys it all starts with the crackdown in china right i mean so far the crackdown basically has triggered this massive sell-off and all these tech companies and just a whole bunch of companies and erase about 1.5 trillion dollars from not only baba but the rest of the stocks in china and they hadn't spared any sectors you can see right here these are all the sectors they have started cracking down on since november of 2020 and you can see tech and the internet companies lead the way by a mile and of course just go ahead and focus on alibaba in itself and you're talking about a country a communist government that has fined alibaba 2.8 billion is started in april right so that's a huge fine then they said okay alibaba you got to pay us 15.5 billion over five years for our common prosperity fund or whatever it is they're doing there you know that was in september and so that's about 18.3 billion out of alibaba's pockets over the next five years and of course the chinese government done there because they're going to take more money from them in taxes because they're going to take the key software or have taken the key software enterprise destination away from them this gave them the ability to pay income taxes at a reduced rate of ten percent going four dollar bobby's effective tax rate would be around 25 and so it already had a negative income on its income statement this quarter but that's gonna be even greater and this is the difference is it paying like 300 million to the government versus around 900 million to the government so that's going to be a huge hit to their financials and of course they just recently fined them a half million dollars again them and other tech companies over there for cases they found going back all the way to 2012 either that they didn't like or something they were doing or something like this anti-trust cases or something so you know it seems like when they want to hit him with a fine they just hit him with a fine or hit him with something else so they're taking a lot of money from alibaba uh in itself and plus don't forget about what they've done with the labor over there so it's gonna be interesting to watch you know to see how much more labor they're paying now they've kind of changed how they're doing things over there in china with their labor force and so that's going to hurt alibaba most likely as well and then the other thing is that makes people really nervous to invest in this is if the company is going to be able to comply what the sec wants from them and what they want to do is they have to comply with the american auditing standards for three years in a row and then more importantly this is the big one the rules also require firms proved to the sec they are not owned or controlled by an entity of a foreign government and to name any board members who are chinese communist party officials and of course one thing you have to keep in mind with this is even if alibaba wants to agree to this will the chinese government let them as you can see what i mean here this happened on november 26th where beijing presses diddy to de-list from the u.s over data security fears and so of course to me it's a legitimate fear in the case that this is the first time we know that you know a country literally asks a company to enlist and by asking i mean tell them 2d list i mean they don't have any choice if they really want them to delist and so you know do i see them asking about that no but i wouldn't pass you know put anything past the government over there after seeing all the other stuff they've done to baba and these other companies and so that wouldn't surprise me a bit and you know to wake up one day and see your your company is going to be live so you can imagine what happened was going to happen to that stock you'll have a chance to get out all right but it's going to be a major discount on where you bought it most likely okay and so of course the last thing i think this one is really legitimate if you've been keeping up with numbers and i've been you know presenting this probably about four or five months ago is the growth factor in china and you can see what i mean here this is the gdp for china and the forecasts as well and you can see their gdp has been declining for years okay coming all the way down into the crash popped back up you can see even right here has been declining this year and project to continue to decline and why this is really important is because alibaba completely depends on china right i mean their chinese commerce retail made up 63 percent of the company's revenues china commerce wholesale makes it two percent and so they really like local consumer services make it five percent uh cloud computing so they really depend on china for this so if their growth does slow obviously that will hit alibaba's financials and their growth as well and i think this is why you see institutions obviously selling out you see new positions at 119 sold out positions at 452 and you can see the new position is around 4 million shares sold out positions 24 million shares but of course there's going to be plenty institutions that continue to increase their positions and hold their positions just like ray dalio and charlie munger are doing for their hedge fund there'll be plenty others especially as the price gets lower and lower okay because this is a dominant company in their space and so you know as far as what i'm doing i'm just looking at this thing and the risk reward has gotten so insane and the valuation is so crazy that you know i'm gonna take some gambling money i'll pick the level i'm gonna get in at i'm definitely not gonna try to catch a fall knife at this point in time because everybody every time somebody says can't go any lower than this it goes lower okay i've showed you the charts the support really in there below 130 125 you make an argument for if you really want to i think it held that for about 17 18 days way back in 2017 i think it was or something but you know when something breaks a key level it usually tends to fall faster because everybody starts to get a little nervous and some people are so far down this point in time they're like man i need to you know salvage what capital i can of course you know write it off on taxes and maybe look to get back in uh after you know the current after the correct amount of time maybe even started in january of next year and see if they can ride it back up and so you know this to me is gambling money for sure i would not do a big position or anything like that i'm not looking for a long position for me if this stock think about it where it's at now if it can get back up to you know 200 210 somewhere in there in a year year and a half maybe two years you're looking at a 60 percent gain even takes three years whatever it is you know i mean that is that's nice i know it's not 20 20 money we can double your folio in three months but you know that's just something to look at because i think that as i'm being de-listed at this point at least for the next two years or low because they still have time right they give them time for that unless something really bad happens between america and china or something you know because the fundamentals the company are pretty sound i mean they're it really depends on to me more than anything china that's the biggest risk as far as what they're going to continue to do as far as crackdowns and then will their gdp continue to slow the growth and everything because that would definitely affect all these companies and so that's the biggest one as i said it's gamma money it would be a small position and for me you know let me know which camp you're in i'm kind of middle what is it sweden or finland or whatever's you know always neutral you know it's kind of where i'm at i understand both sides of the argument i just made it for you and so you know i just want to kind of give you a different perspective or you can see it in one video what both camps are saying and uh you know just hit them in the comments where you're at what you're doing and stuff like that are you riding this thing down are you waiting for it to bottom out and show you an actual reversal to confirm that or not all right so if you're getting out of it please hit the like subscribe button for me guys i really appreciate that and never forget hit that link down there in the bottom sign up for a blockchain account to earn nine percent on your stable coins nine and a half percent on your tether and four to five percent on your other cryptocurrency as well as earn the 100 back on bitcoin for every purchase you make on that credit card guys i will see you later
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