저자: MikeJones · 외국인
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S&P500 신고가 경신 후 마지막 15분 상승으로 지수 녹색 마감. 트럼프 발언(캐나다 주 편입 언급, 사우디 1조달러 요구, AI·암호화폐 육성, 규제 축소 및 소형주 낙관지수 상승 언급)을 시장 배경으로 해석. SPY 6809 상단 저항, 6250~6300 지지 및 피보나치 구간 제시. 10년물 금리는 4.6% 저항 여부가 핵심이며 내일 경제지표에 따라 IWM 방향이 달라질 수 있다고 봄. QQQ는 상승 추세로 보며 메가캡 실적과 FOMC 변수 언급. 테슬라 400~414 박스권, 팔란티어 실적 전 강세 지속 기대, 데이터독은 50선 돌파 전 관망, 나이키·FXI는 매수 비추천(트레이딩 관점만).
다듬은 글
hey guys Mike here and I can't say old boy what a day in the market because it was a sleeper until the last 15 minutes but we did set a new alltime high on spy so we can check SPX spy and what are we waiting on next once again the cues God we've seen this movie before had we and so we'll get into those charts we also talk about some stocks to watch out for which maybe finally could be on the move as well and two they're just they're priced Perfection they got earnings coming up and they better hang the moon baby okay and so we'll talk about those we did have President Trump speak today at the world economic Forum I don't know about you but I was stunned that the market stayed as quiet as it did it moved up a little bit but the alos just were completely quiet why I guess we set a new alltime high yesterday on SPX and we had a huge move up over the last seven days and it kept rejecting off that dark pool level like crazy multiple times you know but once we got above it it set that as support which we'll look at but a couple things he said was one Canada can join as a state because that's the only way they're going to avoid tariffs he finds it very difficult to work with them so Canadians better buckle up probably G to be a rough times for you guys coming up here uh second of all he wants a trillion dollars out of the Saudis I believe it is he wants oil prices down that would be a good thing uh obviously AI is going to be a big thing big big investment a lot of Bankers there so big investment into that that's why you saw a lot of those stocks just mooning again anything to do uh with infrastructure when it comes to the data centers uh you know what nuclear is another one and so that was another thing he talked about really nothing out of the ordinary we hadn't heard before U you know want to be the AI and crypto uh Kings and stuff like that of the world so that was a big one and then of course trying to work with Mexico sign an executive order basically allowing no illegals in and so that's another thing and you know somebody asked me in the comments which I'm going to talk about in Saturday's video put your questions in there for Saturday the video that you got and saying like you know what are some sectors or stocks that you know the president Trump's Administration and policies can affect the most whether it be up or down and so you know we'll talk about in Satur video put in the comments which ones you think and put what you think it's going to be pushing them up or pushing them down uh be another thing to look at so we'll look at that as well we'll also talk about Market structure a little bit in s videos I was getting questions about that when I was saying need to see where we're going to set a high or low okay and so we'll talk I'll show you what I'm talking about and why I'm saying that because I'll say it again today but I will talk about this right here this is interesting before we get in the charts total cost of Regulation because he's going to he's going to cut I believe it's 10 regulations for every one regulation they pass okay and this just shows like the cost of it which with percentage of GP by year and it's quite a bit and we know one thing I we know we got way too many regulations on the book because they never take anything off the book right I mean I know in California I always hear the joke to put a solar panel on your house takes like six to 10 years some crazy mess and so you know just there is way too many regulations and I'm a Believer in good regulations just not over regulations okay and the other one was the US small business optimism index which he did mention at that speech and everything and you can see the biggest two- Monon increase on record as far as optimism so of course what index would this really push for the most would be iwm small caps right so that's another thing to look at on this one but optimism in there because of the deregulations and he also said we're getting the largest tax cuts and all that good stuff and if you build your stuff here you get I think it's either 10 or 15% tax rate but you got to build here that's the way it is so you know we we'll see what happens see what gets past and all that fun stuff now looking at spy here's the last 15 minutes this is what made everything green spy was punished green all day Q's wasn't and neither was iwm but then the last 15 minutes just shoved everything into the green the Dow was actually performing pry much better than anything this is that dark pool level we talked about got rejected multiple times yesterday multiple times the day but finally broke through and so now if we do come back down which we will at some point in time to set the higher low watch for this see if it becom support because we rejected off of it so many times and it was a dark pool level a big dark pool level uh from the previous time we set alltime high and started to sell off right there so you know looking at this pulling out on the daily chart right here obviously we'll pull up and see what levels we can go to because now you're in price Discovery okay we've been here before and so if we continue this push up up 6809 is going to be the first level to look at and so and that's not that that's I know it seems like a lot but that's not it's like 1.4% up and so it's not a big move up uh 625 and then around 629 right there closer to 630 so that's what you're looking on the upside uh to the downside I would just look and see if you know the 79 FIB is a good spot along uh with support right there to see if that's going to be where we stop for the higher low we do finally start I'm going to show you what happen last time we come to the higher high but you may think with this crazy move up we'd be over overbought nope not even close not even close remember this one when we came up like this looks pretty dang similar right but you see how we came back down we set a higher low and then continued to move on that's what I'm talking about okay and so that's how the market moves again I'll talk about this in way more detail on Saturday for you guys but this is the all-time high we came up couldn't make it through bust it through turned it into support right and then came back up touched again and then took off from there and so you know let's see if we see something like that or not again we got f1c coming up next week and we got Mega cap earnings and so I know everybody thinks like everybody's going to the moon and it definitely could do that but again a lot of gaps down below a lot of big earnings coming out and with fomc and so if they don't act doish and they act hawkish as can be well which I don't think they will be surprised they did but then that obvious could create issues now there's the cues last 15 minutes finally push it into the green it was red all day it was like half percent and all that good stuff it's behind right hadn't set a new all-time high so now we get to see what happened last time remember the Spy said it the SPX said it and then we were lagging because of who the mag seven mag 8 stocks right that was the problem and so in order for this to push up you're going to need those to start participating because they make up almost half the QQQ keep that in mind and when you look at this same thing it was the alltime high reject reject came above turned in support and took off right and so we'll see if that's going to be something very similar that we see or do we get to pull down fur maybe fill one of those gaps iwm did exactly what we talk about yesterday and I'm happy to see it hopefully we can hold came back down retested that 226 area right there held and bounced okay and so that was a big thing for this one CU remember right above what do we got we got the 50 moving average up here we got a trend line we got the rest of the daily fair value Gap to mitigate and so you know and again this is another one that's not over bought or anything and it's moved different than the Spy okay it's come up Consolidated sideways has come up and it's Consolidated since I believe Tuesday right here so it's Tuesday Wednesday Thursday and the reason why it's Consolidated and that's actually a lot more healthy than just you know going to the Moon is because of the 10-year yield what is happening here you can see it stair stepping up very quietly since the 20th just stair stepping and now it's at a level which you can see to the left was support for a minute but mostly has been resistance in the past and so this is a big one to watch is just turn this this into support again at 4.6 or do we break back down start heading back down okay that is key and again like I said I said this starts to rally iwm is going to stall that's what's happened okay because it's up at a very high level that's why 4.6 is is not nothing to sneeze that so again we'll see because the the unao pointment claims came in right as expected really about I think it was 4,000 less and so no big deal we just didn't had any major economic data today we do have some coming out tomorrow morning which could affect yield for sure and so we'll have to see uh what happens there and I think that's why we're sitting on that level and so if the news comes out super you know like way over super hot or whatever it is then yields are going to spite becomes in under then of course or better off then you see yields drop then iwm is going to go right and that's why it come down and tested that level right there but again to the upside you do have those fair value gaps it could absolutely be attractive but I think it's all going to depend on this data tomorrow which we'll talk about at the end now looking over here at Tesla real quick one thing you have going on with Tesla right now obviously here's your 21 EMA it is held like the last three times now5 F right below it those two major levels between 410 414 it keeps vacillating between them if it drops below that you got your golden pocket 50 moving average going to be great support for it I believe that's close like 400 405 again above that you go to this FIB right here 427 we start to move and then you go into that shade area right there around 438 is where that starts and that's just what's going on with Tesla cuz there was nothing going on in the options market for Tesla today and that's why I wasn't moving now so far one of the two stocks that is price for Perfection okay you can see right here it said a new 52 we high you can see on the hourly High overbought it got for it finally took some kind of breather now it's heading back up right there and so this one right here is reporting earnings on Monday and so you got one more day to see how this moves right here don't worry about that that is not bearish Divergence right there too small of the time frame as far as I'm concerned but again they report that's what I've been told again I don't have the calendar I'll put it out tomorrow for members and then uh for you guys on Sunday to the public but they should be report Monday and they just got to hang the moon that's the way it's got to be because this thing has such a big move up and if they do hang the moon again that's when you start putting the 20s uh the $20 $22 all that stuff into play okay and if not we'll see how the Market's going to react Pal's another one right they're going to report a couple weeks from now and when you look at it continue to move up today like I said my Trader F like nope not shorten that it's too strong and continues to grind up right there towards that 79 F around 8021 cuz I didn't see any news a day that would push it up and it was green all day long and we pull out on a daily you can see I mean this thing right here nowhere near overbought either not even closed you can see right there though when you look at these RSI you get overbought look how this thing just grinded up as the RSI sort of falling down it's really on the weekly when you get these kind of stocks are just going parab iic and again look how long it stayed overball in the weekly I mean for like six weeks right until you finally got a pull back and so again this is another one when it comes to earnings it's just it's price for Perfection so we'll see if that's going to push it to 100 if it don't get there before earnings or finally get a major pullback so that's what you're looking for on paler right here now when you look at data dog this is one to put on your watch list do not I wouldn't buy this thing until it gets above the 50 and the RSI gets above the 50 area right there and you get that full macd cross on the da right there okay it's starting to turn it's held the 50 Fibonacci it's held this area right here which has been resistance for quite a while that's where it bounced but you need to see because they don't have earnings I think it's for like a few weeks though and so you worried about just grinding sideways but again do what you want to do with the safer badge is see if this thing crosses above the 50 moving average right there yeah they don't report till February 13th and so keep an ey this is a cyber security stock cyber security stocks been doing pretty well software stocks all that fun stuff and we'll see if this one going to get some love again I'm I don't think I've ever played this one before I might have in the past I'm sure I have but uh again just looking at this one to see if it gets above 50 and gets the momentum going you can use stochastic as well and again you can see that momentum eh you look over in the past how it's looked that's what you want to see from the real momentum but again if that gets above 50 and starts grinding up that means we pass the 50 moving average but you can see on there we've rejected off that 50 moving average multiple times and that Fib so that's why I would say just put it on your watch list okay now look looking at nikee again we talked about this this one broke above the Year Day anchor VW then broke above that trend line rejected right there at that resistance came back down tested the year the anchor VW and held it okay and so this is another one I was sit and say if it gets above that it's going around 75 right there it loves to play around with these vws a lot of them from earnings and then the rest of them for Year Day in vwap you can see in the past when it's broke Above This level it'll come up and reject off that vwap right there and then if you go back you can see it I mean that's just the way it is and so that's what I said if you're going to touch Nike it's going to be above that year the anchor VW which it finally got above okay so it could get some movement this company has a lot of issues I would not do this as an investment do it if you want to but as far as like trading yes you know if it gets above there you can finally see some love but it's got a lot of problems as a company man now looking over here at China stocks why am I bringing them up see something that the green and again JD I said that day watch out for that one probably getting ready to sell down that's what it's doing but other are green but the one thing about this one is if if it can get moving the short interest is huge okay this is the fxi China ETF you see the short interest I mean that is like off the charts this thing goes back to 2008 and you can just see it and some shorts are starting to cover and as they start to cover this has been moving up normally in the past when you see like major covering like here here and here that's when you finally get these moves up doesn't mean they don't have problems and all that stuff remember as we say in America the economy is not the market market is not the economy well I guess the same thing can apply to China because you saw that huge rally that completely faded out but you saw a fast rally and that was shorts getting squeezed like crazy and so all it takes is them to come out and say we're going to do this that and the other and the shorts start covering and boom Market starts going okay so that's why again I don't believe in owning these at all trading them yes not owning them okay but do what you want to do my job is to bring it to you and inform you now looking over here earnings tomorrow you got Verizon American Express so again American Express going to tell us how the consumers are doing and then there's an energy stock because energy has been going off to the Moon right now but we do have some data tomorrow to watch out for in the morning you have flash manufacturing PMI flash Services PMI existing home sales Revis University Michigan consumer sentiment all this data comes out after the opening bail okay so be careful there so anyway put your questions at the bottom for Saturday's video hit that like And subscribe button if you don't mind I really appreciate that guys thank my Sig for membership Le the McDonald's combo and that's everything you get with it and I will see you guys tomorrow
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