저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee은 6월 말 S&P500 5500 상승, 연말 비트코인 15만달러를 전망하며 인플레이션 둔화와 기관 채택 확대를 근거로 듦. Jim Cramer는 인플레이션이 여전히 높고 경기 둔화 속 스태그플레이션 우려를 언급하며, 옵션 플로우(vanna·charm) 영향을 강조. 진행자 Mike Jones는 10년물 금리와 IWM(러셀2000)의 동조화를 경기침체 신호로 보며 주의를 당부. 소프트웨어 섹터 매도 후 반도체로 순환매 관찰, 엔비디아는 상승 채널 유지 관찰.
다듬은 글
hey guys Mike here so I got a loaded video for you and there's a lot including this and I'm just going to list out what is included you can pend you know decide if you want to watch or not but one you're going to see two different interviews in this video one from Tom Lea from this morning who made what might turn to be a crazy prediction for the end of June the month win right now right then we're going to have one from Jim camer on talking about the flows because remember they him and Tomley approach it in two different ways right and so he's all about the flows and what you can expect in June but also you get to see two guys who are professionals at this who have made some really good predictions but they have a totally different outlook on inflation okay totally different the other thing is you're going to get to see one what you know where the billions went to last week with the inflows and it was just in one spot that was all it was in so they were definitely selling a lot of other stuff and putting the money somewhere most you know hedge funds don't really just hold cash right they're going to put it somewhere and so and the other thing is we're going to go into what you're seeing with far as you hear people say you know the hedge funds big money selling at rapid pace and all that stuff but there's one sector in particular that they've been selling off for sure and piling the money into this other sector and so I'll show you what I'm talking about so when you hear that and everything you can see it but the other thing is I'm not calling a trend yet it's too early but iwm is following the 10 year yield you saw it again today we'll go over the data that came out the data that drove the 10e down and iwm went right with it again now you asked me some of you saw when I put in yesterday's video eventually they're going to sink up and they're just going to go in the same direction when that happens is usually bad news okay for the stock market but I'll show you what I'm talking about when I say they're going to sink up now what was the news that came out and it was the Joe's jobs of course but you can see the Jo's job openings right the job openings continue to decrease actually coming down almost near what was 2018 2019 level uh before that you can see way down here these levels I don't think we'll ever get back down there it took basically 2020 to get us down to those levels so we're getting close right to being at those levels as you can see right here and when you look at even the bottom the the US job openings versus US unemployed workers things of that nature that's coming back down into we reward 2018 2019 level so really kind of normalizing right there but the fact that's coming down means what you know not you may not call it great for the economy but that's is what the 10 year wants to see right so they end up dropping the 10e down again 2% if you count pre-market but when you pull up iwm I mean you can clearly see and I kind of sync these together they just went in Tandem and what's crazy when it dropped it dropped and then iwm went up when the 10 year went up and 10 year started to roll back over and then iwm went with it okay and you're you're sitting there going what do you mean these are going to sink up eventually and this is the way it's going to be if you look before any kind of recession you'll see it you'll sit there I mean 2020 is not much to see because obviously it was a 30-day drop in the bucket but it was trading sideways right but go back to8 in them what do you see right here they're completely in sync 10 years's going up iwm's going up 10e F rolls over iwm rolls over it goes right with it all right you go back to Doc you'll see the exact same thing they'll be synced up and that usually leads us right down into a recession so again it's not a trend you just got to pay attention to it and be aware of it okay that's why if you might notice I'm putting videos out trying to prepare to say look if the business cycle I know was broken but if it's coming to an end of a business cycle which we come in these Cycles right if that's what's happening you need to be prepared to know what to watch out for so you're not sitting there going why are my stocks down 50% what just happened you know what I'm saying so again that's exaggerating but that that's what I'm trying to do here just show you certain things now we're going to S out Tom Lee first who comes out with an exact number an exact date which is in June here for his prediction first and then he'll also talk about Bitcoin he gives a crazy prediction of Bitcoin I want to know if you guys agree with this I don't I person I hope he's right trust me I hope he's right but I don't I don't agree with it but yeah we'll see on that one and then I'll come back we'll go into Jim Camp wrong so 5500 on the S&P by the end of June it's hard not to not to talk about that immediately based on Tom lower inflation that's right I think there's a fundamental case Joe which is uh inflation is coming in softer than expected and I think the job market is sort of it's cooling but not weakening dramatically and I think that's a good situation for equities and I think that this this the selloff in April actually hasn't really been fully recovered and that's why we expect expected a rebound in May but I think that carries over into June and there's still 6 trillion in cash on the sidelines and margin debt still way below where it was in October 2021 so we know investors really aren't that long yet so I I think that comes together this month with a pretty surprisingly robust move higher and this is another like crazy call Tom 150,000 on bitcoin by the end of the year it's already June uh yes um we're still constructive on bitcoin there's uh the Tailwinds that are associated with the having that just took place uh we also know because of the Bitcoin ETF and there have been tremendous inflows but institutional sort of adoption and infrastructure being built around Bitcoin is only beginning and that makes you know crypto especially Bitcoin a Bonafide asset class and and I think that sort of uh widening ownership is going to be propelling Bitcoin to 150,000 and again surpris not maybe surprising or not surprising you know Bitcoin still follows math you know you know more than 87% of the moving Bitcoin still follows just the number of wallets and the activity per wallet and both are moving higher and so let me know if you agree with his S&P prediction or you know the the Bitcoin prediction the Bitcoin prediction was probably a little more to the extreme right but again I'm you know I don't going be a crypto expert maybe I'm missing something uh but that's what he thinks now here's Jim Camron talking about month end which I'm actually doing research on this right now for a members video looking at all the previous month ends and how how they react and everything and then the flows and he actually does give some answers because you guys are always asking what is he talking about with v and charm and all that stuff and he actually does he's asked and he gives a definition on it but let's do his answer on inflation this is a pretty easy read here okay here's our income data here's the four metrics for inflation embedded into the number if you just look at the top is it this is last month this is this month what conclusions can you draw stagnation inflation stagflation right I mean this is what we've been talking about on and on uh throughout people have called it a soft Landing it's not a soft Landing you're still getting a hot inflation number with a slowing economy yeah I mean there's very little doubt these numbers are smaller and the consumption went negative and it's been negative over the last 4 months and if you look at yesterday's GDP what did that tell us on consumption yeah same thing I same things are coming down and when everything has the consumer's ability to keep consuming is so integral these are big changes and once again just so people understand viewers listeners okay these are the metrics of inflation only the month-of Monon core was lower and if you really look it up this number was like.
248 okay okay if you look at the websites they put it out at 0.25 so they rounded but we're only what 3/10 away from making that equal the last month my point isn't to belittle the numbers my point is to pay attention to them that's absolutely right I mean there's structural inflationary forces and we can start to cyclically slow them down but at the end of the day that inflation is going to continue to be pretty high um I think that's the biggest Point people have what goes on at the end of the month when you're an options Trader well look at the end of the day this is the end of month and beginning of month coming when the month is up uh you know 6% for the month a decent run at the end of the month there is a reinvestment a Rel leveraging uh effect that happens in portfolio so we've been getting this this softness as we've broken down technically a bit but what do you get a big push back uh you know coming into the end of the month on top of that three holidays coming up you know two more holidays coming up that's really slow low liquidity and in in that context you're getting a lot of Von and charm flows with a big poly expiration coming as well real quickly okay vant and charm just real quickly tell our viewers what that means yeah what that means is uh you have uh the the whole world and the options world is is long put short call to hedge long exposure the the dealers are short those puts and short stock so every day that goes by when Vault comes down that means there's a buyback of Deltas every day a buyback underneath the market and big Explorations big exposure like a June Opex mean even more of those flows so these are the the market forces the structures at work underneath the market that pushed things higher even in the context of what might be weak news right tail wagging the dog that's exactly right nowadays it's flows flows flows first and foremost and so hopefully that makes sense and he's right it really is about the flows we we've seen it in multiple stocks look at Nvidia right I mean this thing is if anybody looked out two years ago oh my goodness look at this thing the flows the options Market everything it really means something it's not the crimin CRM of everything but it absolutely means something right and so it is part of the equation that goes in to how the market moves okay whether it's up or down that's that's just the way it is like when we go into negative gamma versus positive gam it's amazing how the market will flow and so just things to be aware of pay attention to and stuff but look at what happened last week with these flows these are weekly fun flows and you can see I'll show you to you whenever I get it look at this there's only one game in town last week it was large caps like they sold almost everything else and they just flowed into large caps why because large C especially the big mag 6 78 whatever it is they're the only ones that make money even off these high interest rates because they have such cash uh positions but they're also just safe havens they're so heavily held in these different uh portfolios and stuff and ETFs and everything now the area that's been getting sold off and getting rotated into one is the software stocks right I saw this right here I thought this is interesting you can see about mid July last year somewhere they started sell selling them down and rotating into semiconductors and anything to do with semiconductor stocks the equipment and everything else I thought let's let's see if it's true right let's see if it's true so let me just pull up a software ETF and there's ey shares right and so I pull them up and you look at their top 15 Holdings right here and I thought okay well let's just pull them up on the chart I'm pull all 15 up but quite a few of them here and we'll see and you can see I mean they were doing great coming up actually they didn't sell them off it says on that chart mid last year but they were still going up nicely I'm sure a lot of lot warrant but then you know when you come in to like the last three months you go oh yeah and we've seen software companies get absolutely obliterated especially on earnings right so you can see all of them coming down right there while semiconductors have been doing pretty much the opposite and especially right there in that area where a lot of them start reporting earnings you see some big drops happening and so will they continue to rotate out of these that's what we got to find out right I think Crow strike I think they reported today and did pretty well but we'll see if they hold on to the gains now real quickly iwm you can see right here still a hot mess and guess what it has to hold this level right here because if it breaks around 2050 whatever it is it's going down to 200 because look at that Gap it'll fill a gap right I mean this thing is a gap Fest look at all the gaps right but it'll fill a gap it'll have a very solid support level right there which it absolutely have to hold it breaks 200 oh boy I mean you better watch out right so again if it starts to move back up a lot of resistance Above So just pay attention to this one and just compare it see what's going on with the 10 yield see what's going on iwm it needs to start moving up if the 10e yields are dropping now when you look at SPX here the S&P 500 pretty plain to see I mean that's where we ended yesterday right there we come back up so we're kind of just in this sideways motion at this point in time now that we've cleared back above previous all-time high but when you pull up you know and look and see okay what's really happening here again Watch 5240 for a put wall if we do get down there so that was uh Friday's area right there you can clearly see there is a high right here's your low here's a lower high and this is a lower low right so now it's trying to see if it can push back up after retesting 5200 there's a still what is a lower high right so it's lower than one to the left okay and so we got to get to see if this thing is going to roll over to set of higher and lower not which is usually what you're going to put in first that's what we got to find out and so again it's in this shortterm Channel if you want go to an hourl you can see it trying to move up but you have to get above that level right there which is around 5316 okay before you start heading back up and so that's what you need to see on the S&P again Watch 5240 for a put wall again to see if that happens again uh and then when you look over here at Nvidia all-time high once again today continues to push up it was the most positive as far as flows were concerned a lot of call sweeps coming in on this one we're not surprised again you can see clearly this is what this is an uptrending Channel okay and you can see that plain as day so as long as it stays in that channel keeps going up still got what six days till we get the stock split and everything then if it it gets added to the Dow again you'll have profit taken most likely when it splits and remember what I showed you from that members video it's all about what's happening in the market okay that's key now Dale somebody asked me about this I'll tell you one big drop obviously on earnings it's bouncing on the 50 moving average right now also coming into what some confluency here which was resistance now it's trying to turn in support so that's a good bounce area to see so that's a big point of interest you got your 50 you got a point of Interest right there for it to bounce we'll see if that happens after what is it a 28% drop right there and some levels to watch if it does move up 140 145 get above 145 this thing is going to rock it probably up to fill the Gap to the left not the huge gap but the Gap To the Left Right There is a gap below that but you know when you're in that Gap usually you'll see about a 50 % retracement into the gap before you start getting pullback so again 140 then 145 then 50% of the Gap most likely just pay attention to it now pal and teer is the last one here again some Confluence in the way but it comes down that area where you got many bounces okay and it's held this bounce so far as it moved up again today even when the market was red paler was actually green there's a lot of stocks like that by the way and so but this one going to have it's got heavy resistances at right now it does move up 2317 is where a lot of people were shorten last time so that will be heavy resistance so it's it's got its work cut out that is for sure there's no ifs an or buts about that one so be careful here and when you come to earnings we do have a lot of retailers coming out with Dollar Tree allies which a lot of people like Lulu Lemon this one set up for a bounce or set up for a major drop okay it seems like more of a bounce but we'll see then when you talking about data 815 you'll have ADP nonfarm employment changes final Services PMI ISM Serv serves PMI remember services are 70% of the economy and crude oil inventories which I don't want pay attention to but we had a big drop on oil this morning we'll see if that affects oil at all pay attention to the tenear yield dollar as well which has been showing weakness and see if the iwm starts to act normal again and participating or continues to go down with a 10 year because a lot of Kathy Woods type stocks High beta stuff was actually up today right just iwm did not participate so we'll see what happens again tomorrow it's probably going to be some big swings some boring times of not moving at all which was the day for a long period of time and welcome to Summer got to love it so please hit that like And subscribe button on your way out feel free to hit the link down in the description sign up for the membership lesson the McDonald's combo if you like a daily news briefing like to be in the Discord a lot of good people and stuff and all that good stuff so anyway I'll see you guys tomorrow
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