저자: MikeJones · 외국인
요약 보기
개인 투자자 Mike가 실적 발표 후 급등락 사례(SMR, AAOI, Trade Desk 등)를 소개하며 손실 관리 원칙(30% 손절선)을 강조. 과거 폭락 종목들에서 매수세가 들어온 사례를 제시하고 '90% 하락 지점이 바닥일 수 있다'는 관찰을 공유. 마이클 버리의 신규 숏 포지션과 나스닥·S&P 기술적 지지/저항, 금·은 동조 흐름, MSFT의 OpenAI 매출 의존 우려와 500달러 저항을 언급. 엔비디아 223 부근 저항과 SMH/SOXX 지지 여부를 주목하며 내일 고용지표 대비를 권고.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, this is Mike. I hope you have a wonderful day today. In this video, we'll discuss the crazy price swings you're currently seeing during company reporting. I saw something last night that I've never seen before. I wonder if you've seen anything like this, but the stock reaction just blew me away.
And then I'll show you some other reactions compared to this one, and you'll say, " Yeah, that's a real mystery." That's why you shouldn't brag about your results during reporting, even if everything is going in your favor, because the situation can turn around in an instant. We'll also talk about one promotion that I get asked about, it seems, every three weeks for the Saturday video.
By the way, leave your tickers and questions for Saturday's video in the comments. I will definitely consider them. But I want to show you something, because today she has reached a certain level. So, we'll look at a few things. First, let's learn to accept losses, and I'll explain why. This is very important.
I'll tell you my personal story with this stock, because I definitely suffered a loss, and when it happened, I had to grit my teeth and just say, "Eh." But I'll also show you that when everyone thinks a stock is "dead" after reaching a certain percentage drop, there will always be a buyer, okay? And I will demonstrate it to you.
Then, of course, we'll talk about Michael Berry's new short positions, because every time he announces them, he suddenly gains such power. Boy, these stocks are going down like hotcakes. Today he opened two more short positions. If you own these stocks, you've felt it. And then we'll move on to what to look for in ES, NQ, QQQ, or SPY— depending on what you're tracking.
Maybe you saw it yesterday. I've never seen anything like this before, where a company didn't meet its revenue target by 99%. New Scale Power Corp (SMR) reported $75,000 in revenue, while around $ 8.9 million was expected. You see this income, it's just a disaster. It falls , falls and falls every quarter.
What was crazy was that the action barely budged. Today she was even in the "green zone" , which is simply incredible. At first it fell by 8%, but that's nothing. You saw how stocks fell by 20-30% last night on the back of the reports. And they weren't in such a terrible condition at all. And now, for some reason, it closed in the black today.
Although, mind you, take a look at a company like AAOI. Look at this. Look at the projected revenues, right? Sure, their revenues are falling quarter after quarter, but they had very good profits, right? I mean , they increased revenue, how much was it? That's 191 million, up from 103 million a year ago.
Net loss 22 million. The company returned to non- GAAP profitability with revenue of 5.5 million, blah blah blah. But this thing is actually in the red. There was a big jump, a big fall, all these interesting dynamics. My favorite is Oscar, and I'm even glad he fell, simply because he drives me crazy.
But again , they raised the annual forecast, revenue , net profit— everything looks good. The stock jumped. Boom . 18%. Everyone is beating their chests on social media. Look at this spread. A 29% drop, but these fluctuations are incredible . They really are like that. I see stocks fall 20%, turn around to 40%, and that's with good reports .
They didn't have bad profits or anything like that. So this is just amazing to watch. But look at this, man. Trade Desk. It seems like I'm constantly asked about her . Another 21% minus on the reporting. I mean, look at this. They failed everything. Oh. It's just terrible. Management said, "We just didn't do what we were supposed to do ." It's like, "Yeah, are you serious?" I mean, look at the revenue, guys.
Look at the EBITDA forecast. Oh, my God . Let me tell you, I once owned this stock. You know, all that, but understand. People, what are they doing? They are constantly averaging. Should I average? I hear questions about averaging all the time. So, what do you think? What do you think? Where is she going?
And I'll tell you, I know, it sucks, especially if you hate losing, taking losses, but look where she is now. She is now at a different level of support. I mean, look at that graph. Oho! So, it has returned to approximately 2018 levels. But understand this, here's the magic number. Are you ready for this?
Tomorrow, if it opens where it is now, it's a 90% drop for some reason. This is often the magic number when such stocks fall by 90%. And remember, there will always be a buyer somewhere . But I thought I was going to be a genius right here, on this reaction to the reports last August, I waited and followed my 3 -day rule and stuff.
I thought: cool . I think it was an overreaction, blah blah blah. I bought it, the price stood still for a month , then fell again, I averaged it out, we jumped up, and suddenly I was in the black, thinking: "Oh, I'm a genius. Now I'll jump into that gap." Boom, and the price went down. I weighed myself again and finally said: " We need to get out of this ." So I started going out in December 2025, finally got rid of the last part right then, and then of course the price bounced back and went down.
I lost 30%, but that 's a small portion of my portfolio, you know? It's a very small position, but if I had held it any longer, I would have lost another 68%. Do you understand me? This is not good at all. So when the stock drops that much , you have to get your finances in order and do what you want, but you have to say to yourself, "Where is my pain threshold?" Mine was at 30.
I said, "I'm out. I'm out. I've had enough. I've done everything I could. This is complete nonsense." And this was before the " software apocalypse," okay? Can you imagine? And again, there will always be a buyer for every stock. Sooner or later it becomes so painful that the stock is overvalued, and everything else is different.
I'll show you what I'm talking about. Look at these promotions. All of these shares were once considered written off. Here's Roku, remember that one? The promotion cost over $500. So what ? Boom, minus 91.86%, and someone said, " I'll take it for $39." Yes ? Here it is, Elf. Look how low she has fallen.
Someone intervened, someone is still buying at this level. Unity, guys, take a look at this one. Once worth $207, it has fallen by 93%. Boom. And you know what? Higher lows are forming there , and it is a very volatile asset. Again , I'm not saying it 's a great company or anything like that, I'm just saying: when it comes down to it, you start getting close to the 90% mark, buyers usually want to look for the bottom, right?
In phase, 92%. What happened? Boom, it fell 92%, and from there it jumped almost 100%. Look at this, sorry, at 165%, I apologize. You know, and then it fell again. And remember, you don't have to be a hero. Although you don't have to be a hero. This is the most important thing. It's like , you know, a structure.
Check this out, 80% off at Lululemon. Apparently no one wants to buy those leggings or whatever anymore. Someone starts to interfere. Is this the bottom? We'll find out, right? Does he need to drop to 90? Does he need to go down to that white line? That's what we learn in this case. Look at Doki. Remember Doki?
Look at this. 312 dollars. It fell to $39. Someone intervened there. Someone intervened there. Then it fell again, and someone intervened again. So what does this level tell you ? Buyers are ready to intervene at this rate. They say, "Yeah, okay. I'll chime in here. The risk-reward ratio, man, is pretty good." CMG, remember this thing?
This is Chipotle. You know, 60% down, buyers stepped in, right? 43% move up to resistance. Will it fall even lower? We will find out. This is Dollar General. Minus 74. I'll show you the king of this in a minute. Look at this. Boom, 131%. People were ready to intervene. That's what they did. Good. Big move up from there.
And the main example has to be Zoom . Look at this. 91% down. A stock once cost $500, $75, drops to $60. Falls to $54. Boom. And recently, since August 2024, buyers have stepped in, and guess what? If you pull, I mean , this is the upper channel. Yes? I mean, I'm telling you. That's the lesson. First, reach your thresholds.
Say: "I can't, that's it. I'm quitting. 30% is the maximum loss I'm willing to take." Again, I have to survive, do what you want. But it will save you a lot because I was able to save this capital immediately to invest in something else. And if you can make it profitable, you'll easily recoup that money.
Yes? Instead of just watching them disappear. Just money disappearing. That's all that would happen in that case. Perhaps that would be all it would be . The other option is if you, you know, look at it and say, " Okay, I actually believe this or not, and now I will." I'll add this to my watchlist again to see if any buyers show up.
Was there enough pain? Now it has fallen by 90% and started to form a structure, right? That's all. That would be ...That would be normal. By the way, I would stop right here. Never...it would be like... I mean, it's just a waste, right? So, if it works , it works. If not, then no, right? I would n't even buy the stock.
I don't know. I would probably buy when the structure starts to form , maybe a long option or something, but you know, again , every stock eventually has a buyer, unless it goes bankrupt, of course . But I showed you these examples. Some of them were simply stillborn. And in the end, someday they will move anyway.
So, a few things I took away from this, again , I learned a lesson. You must do this . And this again takes time. I don't like losing. And so, it was a loss for me, okay? Now let's move on to the shares. Looking at NQ right now, you can see that this trend line is still pushing the price away. Unable to gain a foothold above this level.
Did it bounce off this level right here ? Of course, I would like to see the 821 level hold after the “ golden cross” on the daily chart. Here is ES, that is a level to watch, the previous high right there. There is also an 8-day exponential moving average there, if we go below that, we will see if there is a rebound.
So this must be support. Again , looking at NQ, it's clear that we're just going here, to the gap. Yes, right here. We will mark this in case the price goes down. There is also a 21-day exponential moving average. Also, the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382, which we should not break, is that clear?
Because this could be a signal for a downward reversal. So we don't expect that. Let's look at silver, pay attention to it. You see, it's in a huge falling wedge. But if you think gold is going to break out, as we all know it did the other day, right here. If it starts to rise, silver could follow. As you can see , they usually move together, not always, not 24/7.
And if silver accelerates, it can sometimes outperform GLD. So be sure to keep an eye on him, because they can move together. MicroStrategy opened short positions in MBIA and Oracle. I thought Oracle was pretty good. He was approaching a resistance level. I don't know about MBIA , but you see, they took a hit.
I mean, instant boom, minus 12%. See you later. And this led to others. However, it is worth paying attention to one thing: if it wants to go up again, there are equal highs there. This will be your target for promotion, whether it bounces or not. Looking at Microsoft, as a shareholder, I don't like it at all.
Today we reached an important level, but the only thing I don't like—I'm not a fan of OpenAI, you may be and I'm not, but I hate to see the disclosure that OpenAI accounted for over half and probably about 70% of Microsoft's actual AI sales. I don't like it at all. If it were Anthropic, I would probably be satisfied.
There is no doubt, but not OpenAI. They're trying to get away from it, of course, but yeah, I don't like it . Microsoft reached 500, a huge psychological level . This, I mean, the growth has been incredible, right? Just absolutely incredible. That's what ...especially with Microsoft, the way it moves, you see it grinding, but not like this.
Those price gaps upwards are simply incredible. So, this is a psychological level , right? This is a serious resistance level where you can finally see what happened with Amazon when a nice pullback occurs, which is healthy for setting a higher low. Okay, it'll happen someday. Or will we break through it and turn it back into support?
I mean, this will be a key point, but this is the level that needs to be monitored, of course, of course. There is no doubt about it. And when you, I mean, look at the RSI, especially when you go to the weekly charts and the MACD, you see at the bottom that the MACD hasn't even crossed zero. Even after this crazy move, we didn't even cross zero on the weekly chart, right?
And besides, we are still not in the overbought zone. Even after the move we had, it did n't even reach overbought territory on the weekly chart. Things are definitely getting heated on the daily chart. It definitely goes higher, okay? So as a shareholder, I'm never bothered when I see higher lows forming and all that.
So I'm going to go beyond these short-term moving averages. So, let's see if the 500 mark becomes a brick wall or not. Looking at SMH, we see that it is clearly trying to hold on and consolidate here. When Nvidia hit 223, it seemed like that was it, and it rolled back. Here are the SOXX shares, you can see, the same thing.
They broke out, testing this trend line. So let's see if they continue to hold as many large memory stocks have sold out. As for tomorrow's earnings reports, there will be Oak Street in the morning. Vistra Energy will be a big player. Wendy's, Under Armour, ACM, Canopy Growth. And of course, pay attention to the morning, we have here the change in nonfarm payrolls .
This is usually an important event. Unemployment rate, average hourly earnings . So be sure to prepare for this. Please leave your questions in the comments to Saturday's video. Please like and subscribe before leaving. Consider signing up for a membership, where I make more detailed videos for members.
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