저자: MikeJones · 외국인
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팔란티어는 실적 발표 후 급락했으나 과거 대비 재무구조가 양호하고 기관 보유가 늘어 장기 투자 관점이며, 주식기반보상(SBC)이 수익성 악화 요인이라 지적. 지지선 근처에서 반등을 예상. 소파이(SoFi)는 은행 인가가 성장 핵심이나 규제 당국 절차가 지연될 수 있고, 경기장 네이밍 마케팅이 브랜드 인지도와 가입자 증가에 기여한다고 설명. 두 종목 모두 단기 반등 기대를 제시.
다듬은 글
hey guys mike here so today we're going to talk about palantir stock and sofa stock moves on our weekly sunday update i'm going to go through the charts to see if they're going to continue to sell off or start to turn up this week and we're going to go over the news for both companies especially in so far because the ceo did an interview this week it was a really good detailed interview and i picked out some for some things for you you definitely want to hear especially dealing with the bank charter which is the big name for that company as well as one thing that is absolutely really hurting palantir stock and i'm gonna go into detail on that so you kind of get the numbers and stuff understand why that is happening and so if you're getting out of it please down there hit that like subscribe button share the video really appreciate it and it really helps the channel out and without further ado let's go ahead and get right into it starting with pound tier stock first and so going into pounds here stock chart first you can see we've had this major sell off since the iron is called almost 20 right now good thing is is a nice support level at 21 it's been there for a while and so we'll see what happens there but you know if we pull out and kind of look at what's happened here and i had gone over this multiple times you know when you look at earnings it always run up after earnings and i said you know this was uncharted territory we did this run up for almost a month before earnings and it was the definition of selling the news for sure because i showed you the numbers the numbers were not that bad at all not to have a selloff like this occurring and so you know something we expected the good thing is i mean according to the stochastic rsi you know it's oversold this point in time so coming in this week i expect they move back up and so of course you know the one issue i'll go over here and the negative part is that you know one thing that's been an anchor around the stocks net basically is the stock based compensation okay and you know this is going to continue to be the anger for quite a while no matter how good those numbers are because you know they've been around a long time since 2000 i believe it is and so they awarded a lot of stock based compensation employees to keep them on board and stuff like that because they wanted to retain them and so now of course they became public that's come due a lot of people are cashing out all that good stuff and and so you know it's just one of those things that it weighs down on the stock price heavily and i'm going to kind of give you an example what i'm talking about here and so you can see quarter by quarter q1 through q3 obviously you got the share count of 1.821 billion in q1 now it's up to 1.964 billion you can see the quarter over quarter growth three point three four percent to four percent three point seven percent and then financials you know you can take a look at this this is the gap net loss versus stock based compensation this is in millions by the way and you can see right there there's the gap nest loss in q3 of 2020 and then you got the stock based compensation which is huge right beside it obviously as we move forward you know you can see what they did was they took the gap net loss minus stock based compensation which would give you the net loss obviously and so you can see without all that stock based conversation it would actually be you know in the green right now not the red and to show you how big a deal this really is as the share count goes up and dilute shareholders even more for example one share you bought a year ago now controls 11 less of the company than you did a year ago okay so that's how this affects you how it affects the share price and you know for example the operating margin is 30 but when you bring in a factor in the stock based compensation it drops to a negative 17 loss and so it is decreasing over time but this is something that's going to take a lot of time to work its way out and you know there are plenty of positives though i mean let's be real i went through the numbers the numbers are good the growth is good and all that stuff you know but one good thing is is you got institutions still buying this stock up as you can see you got instant ownership around 33 total shares outstanding 1.907 billion total value of holdings a lot then you got you know increased positions 491 decreased position 244 held positions 133 and total institutions around 868 the whole boatload of them holding around 635 million shares and then you got new positions around 129 while sold out positions are 72.
and then if you compare that to other companies this right here is the software infrastructure industry institutions buying and selling as a percentage of shares outstanding you'll see pallentiers number four on the list here and you've got some pretty big companies if you scroll across you'll see square and some others on here and so they're high up on the list as far as what institutions are doing with them and the reason why these institutions are buying into this because big data is going to be huge from here on out and this tells us right here the global big data market from 2021 to 2025 is going to have a compound annual growth rate of around 18 percent from north america the growth rate's going to be around 48 incremental growth and billions around 247 billion dollars and then growth for 2021 is going to be a little over 15 for this market here another real positive point out for palantir is how well they've done with their adjusted free cash flow and how much they've improved it as you can see q3 adjust free cash flow 119 million an improvement of 172 million year over year and representing a martin 30 percent you see to the right right there they were in the negative last year now they're in the positive and just looking at their balance sheet i mean you got 2.3 billion sitting on hand in cash you're sitting here with total assets of around 3.2 billion dollars and only have total liabilities of 976 million so a three to one ratio which is fantastic and so obviously solid balance sheet they've done a good job improving their free cash flow they're building out their sales team they're improving their commercial contracts and that's going to take time it's something you got to be patient so i always say this is a long-term investment not a short-term investment and the one thing that's going to work its way out and then continue to decrease is the stock based compensation as they go along you know you can see it decreasing on the chart i showed you and so you know that's going to take time but it will weigh down with all their shares outstanding you know that's what's my ask me the other day you think they'll get 200 in five years or something i said it's gonna take a while because they have a lot of outstanding shares you know and what is market cap outstanding shares time the stock price okay and so you know yeah they could but it's going to be it's going to be taking a long time it's going to be tough all right and so you got to think about that and so i try you know again we don't sell stock in this channel so i want to bring that to your attention if you're ever wondering but the good thing is we're approaching a support level as held for a while i expect it to turn back up as usual and so you know just something to keep an eye on if you believe in the stock you're going to stay in it if you don't believe in the company then you're not and so you know you just got to make up your own mind on that i'm just trying to bring the information that's available that i can find for you and so you know let me know what you think in the comments down below and so next let's go ahead and go into sofi and we'll go over the charts some other things about them and then you get to hear from the ceo and some very important topics and obviously so far stocks kind of strange had the big pop on earnings had a very good earnings then you had this massive sell-off of 16 which really made no sense to me whatsoever because there's never really any negative news out there to really justify this you know once again though got the support level 1952 so it's bouncing back and forth between 19 1952 and 24.50 which i think is what's gonna do uh over the next week or two and again you're looking at the daily uh stochastic rsi it's oversold right now so it should start to move up and so the big sell-off after the earnings really didn't make a whole lot of sense after the big pop and all that because there was really no news out there there was the warrants but i already put that news out there when they first you know announced that was it november 8th or something like that and so that wasn't really it there was no other negative news and so i don't know if it has to do they didn't announce the bank charter you know the day of earnings or the day after whatever people feel you know they're not getting it or whatever i'm not sure about that or people just lock in profits because then it's done a big run-up over the last month and a half and so that could be the case but anyway i still i still expect this stock to start moving back up and heading north and you know it does respect the resistance levels we've had on there that we talked about for weeks now and so i expected to float between those resistance level once again i think until you actually hear something about this bank charter which we're going to get into but you know the one thing that's happening is the institutions are buying this stock as well as you can see right here you got 41 institutional ownership in you see the big pop september end october and one thing i think that people aren't giving enough credit and i've covered this one but is there partnership with pagaya you know this is the ai company that's going to help them actually let their members and stuff get the correct or the right kind of loan things like that for personal auto credit cards real estate that kind of stuff and the one thing i want to go ahead and tell you right now which i find impressive is i found this for you guys you can look at this the reason why this is a big partnership and beca according to this you're looking at the partners that this company has they recognize a 3x increase in volume on their network in the first six months and then a 6x increase and the volume on their network after 12 months i mean that is huge and so if that is true i think that's going to be just enormous for sofa on growing their members which they have shown to be doing every single quarter and so i think that's going to be a good one and something to watch out for and so now you know everybody asks about the bank charter that's the big one the bank charter when's it coming was it coming well the ceo gave a very candid answer right here so make sure you pay close attention and also pay close attention to why he calls us a game changer and why i truly believe it is a game changer for the company and they really do need this uh to move forward so from a standpoint of what sofi can do you know we've provided all the information we've gone through all the processes um the you know the ball is really in the regulator's courts in terms of the last uh steps that are in the process and you know it shouldn't be missed by anybody that there is leadership changes and that could impact timing um and so we're uh we're working with the regulators in a really constructive way and encouraged by the process up until this point thanks and when you get the bank charter how do you envision growing the deposit base yeah so we already have a pretty significant amount of deposits through sofi money we can't use those for lending because we are not a bank um we do have fdic insurance through our suite program on those banks so the first thing i'd say is we actually have a pretty substantial amount of deposits that can help fund our loans and we also have a lot of our own equity capital that we're currently using and so having the access to deposits will reduce even further our warehouse facility usage um relative to it already being pretty low now given the amount of capital that we have um you know we are going to have a value proposition and so five money um that that drives to primary accounts we want to have our account be their primary account because the information that we get on a daily basis helps us better recommend and personalize offers for our members and how they make their lives better financially in order to get there we think the formula is pretty straightforward we think absolutely we have to have early paycheck today we offer two day early paycheck i'd like to do even sooner uh second free overdraft uh no minimum balance no no minimum spending requirement um roundups um in addition to that in interest rate and i think there's an opportunity for us to do all the things that i mentioned which we're doing today and be more aggressive on the interest rate the second thing we can do uh because we'll have a lower cost of funds is that we can lower the interest rates that we charge on our loans which has a productivity loop to it because the lower your rates are the better the credit you are that you get and then there's more products and services that person needs so we could also use our loans as a way to drive direct deposit so for example right now on personal loans as i mentioned we give you a rate without direct deposit and then an interest rate on that personal loan with direct deposit every one of our offers across the company should should include a standalone price or standalone offering and then a better offering if you do direct deposit with us and so that should answer all your questions about the bank charter hopefully and why it's so important and you know they've done everything they've checked the boxes they're waiting on the government which moves like molasses and there are leadership changes going on that might affect that and delay it as well so keep that in mind and so you know the last thing is the stadium right everybody talks about you know the stadium i've talked about it and what's great to hear from the ceo is the effect it's had on the growth of sofi um in terms of the stadium um you know a lot of people ask the question last year wasn't a great year for the stadium there weren't people on the stands there wasn't a ton of media coverage we didn't get a lot of free impressions this year's been incredible um we've learned a lot from last year and we've implemented this year and it's had a compounding impact on everything else we do there's nothing better than like on a wednesday or thursday after the second game at the stadium but someone walks into like man my numbers are going up well our referrals are going up are new adoptionist areas going up and everyone's looking around saying well did you do the causal analysis and everyone comes back so we didn't analysis we can't type anything i'm like brand awareness is going higher when brand awareness goes higher you get more clicks on the ads that you send you get more um people exploring the opportunity when they see it on television and it just it's the tide that lifts all bullets so i couldn't be happier with the decision and it's having that type of impact of making its footprint bigger than its foot and the great news about that is guys got the super bowl coming up which is the most watched event in america every single year that'll be coming up uh this year actually in january and then you still got the olympics coming up i hadn't heard anything whether or not they're even in the running for whatever the soccer term it's called the big one i don't wanna watch soccer i don't know what it's called but they're in the world cup i'm sorry i think it's called the world cup that right there forgive me soccer fans but i don't watch soccer but yeah i mean that would be huge to get there and then of course all the other stuff and so it's good to see you know that the 10 of their marketing budget they spent uh to have the naming rights for the next 20 years uh is going to pay off big for them and i kind of i knew it would just been them being a fintech company and i'm a football watcher and i see their commercials all the time and the two teams that play there are pretty dang good so they're usually being put on the national stage all the time and that's what marketing is all about right i mean if you're taking marketing class you know that's why they didn't just go out to spend the money to spend the money okay i mean crypto.com just didn't go out and you know get the name rights to the lakers stadium uh for nothing which it's been called the stake staples center as long as i think i've been alive but you know they didn't do that for nothing it tends to work so for some reason it tends to work and so you know that's a good thing you know i just want to bring all that to you give me your thoughts in the bottom to think about pound tears think about sofa right now where we're going next week uh and i'll end up seeing you guys probably monday or tuesday and so don't forget to hit that link down there in the bottom sign up for a blockchain account to earn nine percent on your stable coins nine and a half percent on your tether and four to five percent on your other crypto currency as well as earn the one half back on bitcoin for every purchase you make on that credit card guys i will see you later
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