저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주식분할 가능성을 다룬 영상. 과거 분할 때 주가가 급등했다고 설명하며, 머스크의 10B51 매도 계획, 숫자 풀이(12/09 등)를 근거로 분할 발표 가능성과 기대감에 따른 상승을 주장. 다만 분할 자체는 기업 가치를 바꾸지 않는다고 언급. 영상 후반은 유료 강의 홍보 위주.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, this is Kevin. In this video, we'll talk about a potential Tesla stock split. We'll look at some of the rumors and talk about what happened during Tesla's latest stock split. This is going to be quite interesting because strange things are happening, and at the end of the video I'll offer a strategy on how to play around with this.
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There are five different programs, also consider the package purchase option. So, take a look at this. The first thing we'll do is look at what happened last time Tesla's stock split happened. The Tesla stock split was announced on August 11, when Tesla shares closed at $277 apiece. The crushing finally took place on August 31.
And you will notice that the stock has literally skyrocketed. We went from $277 per share to an intraday high of $520. maximum. Consider that $520 divided by 277—the new number divided by the old. Boom. This is an 87% increase in shares after the split announcement. And then after the split, something very interesting happened, because Apple also had a split around this time.
Technology companies have suffered a massive sell-off. Tesla also announced in early September 2020 that it was going to raise funds. They held a share placement. It was about $5 billion . And this again led to a drop in the company's value. The price fell back to $346 and then only slowly began to recover after remaining at the same level for another two and a half months, before rising towards the end of the year.
So, it's clear that stock splits are a catalyst for excitement, hype, news, momentum, social media trends, and simply for our markets. A stock split literally does absolutely nothing fundamental to a company. All it does is make it look like the stock price is lower, but you don't get more ownership in the company.
You don't get any less of a share in the company. In fact, nothing changes. You just have five times the number of shares that exist, and you have, uh, five times the number of shares, but your percentage of ownership of the company has remained literally the same, because all they've done is essentially multiplied everything by five.
This doesn't change anything. It's like everyone's health has increased fivefold . So, it seems silly, but that's how it works. You get a lot of momentum going into the stock split. So, there's been talk lately and questions to Elon Musk about, hey, are we going to have another stock split? Well, Elon Musk responded about a month ago.
Not yet, but a month ago we were somewhere around $850–900 per share. But lately we've been seeing a bit more euphoria. We rose to $1,243 per share. We really rolled back after Elon announced he would start selling. But now that Elon has suspended the sale, and we're about to see a potential reason why Elon has suspended the sale, we could see some movement here as the stock price goes back up.
It's quite interesting because again you don't have this pressure of Elon selling and a lot of excitement, but a specific date for the stock split. So what we're going to do now is go to Twitter. We're going to check out Rob Graves' comment thread here where I've consolidated a lot of these rumors, but honestly, no one has put together a single consolidated thread of theories from a single source anywhere on Twitter except Rob Graves.
So, thank you for that. The information was scattered all over the place, but Rob put together one really good, uh, thread here. So be sure to subscribe to Rob Grave and, uh, Graves, but the "e" there is a three. Okay, okay. So, look at this. The first thing we need to know is this. This is when Elon Musk sent his first tweet about Tesla's stock price being too high, in my opinion.
This caused the stock price to drop by about 70 bucks after this tweet appeared. But what's really interesting is that Elon Musk sent this tweet on May 1st, which is 5/1, at 8:11 p.m. Well, the stock split was literally announced as a 5-1 split on August 11th. Well, it's like, oh, come on. This is just a complete coincidence.
Yes, it is possible. But that's literally what happened. This was announced on August 11th. It's a 5 to 1 split. Then we get to some interesting stuff that definitely creates some speculation about the potential 1/29 split date. For example, Elon Musk was referring to a tweet about 129 orbital flights .
Hmm. Is it something like December 9th or are people just making it up? It's entirely possible that people are making things up. Here is another example. Elon Musk tweeted that these rockets use 12 million pounds of thrust, and Gary Black, a great legendary investor in Tesla, has some very good insights.
Be sure to follow Gary Black on Twitter, Gary Black00. By the way, I interviewed him on the channel. Very good interview. You should watch it too. He's also in Rivian Bold. But whatever it was, he stated or noticed that in that image when Elon Musk wrote about 12 million pounds of thrust, there were nine engines in the center.
So another potential reference to this 129. Interestingly, 129 appears here again, and Elon's tweet was sent at 10:20 PM Pacific Time . Some people continue to think, like, wait a minute, 102 boils down to 51, maybe another 5 to 1 split, who knows? This could all just be speculation, right? But then an interesting thing happens.
Look at this. Elon recently stopped selling stocks, except for these stocks. You see, on Monday and Tuesday of this week, he sold shares, but he sold 934,091 shares. This is part of plan 10B51. A 10B51 plan is essentially a plan that you initiate and say, "I will automatically sell X number of shares every few weeks or days, or a certain number of days after a certain event," and so on .
If you have determined in advance how you want to sell the shares, you are allowed to sell them at the market price that day. Executives do this because there are blackout periods, a certain amount of time before earnings reports or before public information is released that becomes known to the CEO.
In such situations, they are not allowed to sell the shares, or the lawyers advise: " Please do not sell the shares now, because it will look very bad if we make an announcement, the shares would fall, and you sold them right before that." Like, they're going to sue us. We don't want to do this. That's why you often see executives selling stock only through 10B51 plans.
But Elon Musk promised to sell 17 million Tesla shares, but stopped. He sold only about half the number of shares he planned to sell. It was as if he was gradually selling them off. Why did n't he sell any shares personally this week? Why were there only 10 B51 plans? Well, some suggest that there is hidden meaning in the precise and rather strange number of shares being sold here.
934,091. There is speculation that Elon's sale of 934,091 shares means something. Let's take it. This is where we really go down the rabbit hole, but it's quite interesting. Anyway, take a look at this. The date 09/12/2021 can obviously be written in numbers as 129. 2021. If you literally take that number and divide it , so we'll take that number here and put it into this little calculator.
We'll remove the decimals and divide that by 934,091. We get 12.9 and a bunch of decimals like 4 52 and so on, right? So 129 again, again it's the number 129, but you get a bunch of decimal places, a lot of decimal places , and the full number that you see if you do these calculations on the iPhone is 12.945228.
If you take the rest of the numbers here and add four, five, 22, 28, you get 21. And now it looks like, look at this. 12 9 21 . Really strange, right? But the full result, if you turn the iPhone around and see the full result, or do it like we just did, the full result. In fact, it even cuts off a few digits here.
the full result of the division looks like this long string of numbers. And it's interesting that if you add up all the numbers after 129, you can get some insight. But wait a minute, there is some confusion. Is this number here 80, or is it 8 plus 0? And this is where things get a little weird, because while the Tesla community was arguing about whether zero was something to add or whether it was 80, Elon Musk out of nowhere tweeted that zero was a cool concept.
And he not only tweets that zero is a cool concept, he tweets that zero matters. Look at this. He says nothing matters. You see, Lex tweets that zero is the most important number ever invented. mathematics, whatever. Okay, philosophical argument here. And Elon writes: "Nothing matters." In other words, zero matters.
Because he even clarifies that zero is a cool concept. Responding to my own tweet about nothing mattering. It's not that nothing in the world matters. The point is that zero does matter. So now people are literally thinking, wait, what if we add this up as 80. Look at this. Add all these numbers together.
4 plus 5 plus 2 plus 2 plus 80 plus 3 plus 4 plus 5 plus 2 plus 2 plus 7 plus 6 plus 9 equals 129. Well , folks. It's so bizarre, strange and unusual. Now look at this sequel from Gary Black. Elon Musk has not sold any shares at his own discretion since last Friday, November 12. Well, today is November 21st, right?
It's Sunday, of course. His sales on Monday and Tuesday were made under the 10B51 plan. We have already talked about them. Now, if the lack of discretionary sales yesterday or today could mean, or rather, if there were no discretionary sales yesterday or today, then that could mean that Elon gained access to non-public information, material non-public information.
And look how Gary defines it. He says: material non-public information. When a manager of a public company wants to buy or sell shares of the company, he must confirm that he does not possess material non-public information. If it occurs during an open period, the request is usually granted a few weeks before the earnings report.
But look at this. If you scroll down a bit, if Elon had access to material non-public information, his discretionary agreements involving existing shares with a low basis would have been stopped by his lawyers. We've already discussed this. What could be such material non-public information? Well, maybe it's knowing when the Berlin and Austin factories are opening, or Tesla's fourth-quarter volumes compared to forecast.
This may be essential information. Credit rating upgrade, takeover or stock split. Folks , there is a lot of hype and speculation around this. And here's what I'll tell you. People know that before Tesla's last split, its stock skyrocketed. We are currently unsure whether Tesla will announce a stock split on December 9th or whether it will be announced prior to that for the December 9th split.
Last time we had to wait about 20 days. Well, 20 days minus today. Let's actually do this. There's a cool website you can go to. This is timeanddate.com and they allow you to subtract here or subtract dates from the calendar, which I really like. So if we subtract 20 days, you can just count it by the calendar, but if we subtract 20 days from 129, it's already past.
This means that if we had to wait 20 days for the stock split, perhaps this announcement would have already been made on Friday. This doesn't necessarily mean they can't announce later, but there's a good chance they 'll want to announce and then wait two or three weeks to benefit from the media coverage.
Keep in mind, company executives ultimately want stocks to go up. This makes it easier to raise funds, right? You raise the stock price through splits and then raise funds. This is a great strategy. But , whatever it is, this potentially means that 12.09 could be the date of the stock split announcement.
If people believe these rumors, and Elon Musk doesn't sell the shares by September 12, then everything may go according to plan; If he starts selling shares early, everything could go awry. But if he doesn't sell the shares by September 12, perhaps we will continue to ride the wave of hype, and the value of the shares will grow, grow, and soar all the way to September 12.
12.09 right here in Weeble, on this line. So, we still have a long way to go. Interestingly, I expect that as long as we remain in this EVU4ex cycle, the stock market may try to price in the probability of a 12.09 stock split. If there is no announcement on 12.09, in my opinion, the share price will most likely fall, because it would mean that the speculation and rumors were false, which is of course quite possible.
Elon has given us hints in the past , and he's giving them now. This is a bit suspicious. This makes many think that something will definitely happen on January 12th or September 12th. But there are two strategies you can use here. You can try to calculate the time. In my opinion, timing would mean trading on the entry and then exiting somewhere around the 7th or 8th.
I think many traders will exit positions on the morning of the 9th, or more likely the 8th . So, there will be many who want to play ahead, exiting the market and taking profits if we continue to grow until around 12.05, 12.06 or 12.07. That's when I think people will start to take profits, or they will look for a turning point and get out when it comes.
If there is no news on September 12 , the stock may well fall. If we do get a news announcement on the 29th, the question will be how much of the hype has already been factored into Tesla's stock price and will it be able to continue to rise? Most likely yes, because I think we will once again draw national media attention to Tesla stock due to the split announcement.
And now the people who are really following Tesla shares are not ordinary citizens. No, I'm not trying to say you're crazy if you follow Tesla, but not everyone is paying attention to these stocks right now. Tesla is currently followed mostly by its loyal fans. By the way, I consider myself one of them.
But it's very interesting, and yes, if another split is announced, especially if we see a rise before the 29th, that could be very bullish for the stock. It is also possible that if the shares start to fall due to the end of the electric car cycle and we do not reach the $1,400-$1,500 level, Elon may not announce a split, because last time the shares were worth $277, and after multiplying by 5, they are about $1,385.
So I think if we grow on expectations and hype by then, it's entirely possible that growth itself could trigger a split. This is pretty crazy. Anyway, that's a quick summary of the rumors circulating around Tesla. I hope you found this interesting. Well, friends, see you in the next video. Check out the programs at the links below, and see you there. Use this code on Black Friday. Thank you. See you later.
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