저자: Kevin · 외국인
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인플레이션 논쟁을 다룸. 캐시 우드가 통화속도(velocity of money) 하락으로 인플레이션이 없을 것이라 주장한 것을 검증. 1970s·1990s·2010s 차트상 통화속도와 인플레이션 간 상관이 없고 GDP와도 상관이 없다고 설명. 인플레이션은 수요·공급에 달렸다고 봄. 인플레이션 장기 지속 여부에 따라 세 진영(인플레, 디플레 호황, 레이 달리오식 디플레 악순환)을 제시하고 시청자 입장을 묻는 것으로 마무리. 자산 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
everyone meet kevin here is kathy wood wrong about inflation in this video we'll discuss and we'll talk about the three types of inflation camps that exist now you might think wait a minute i thought there were only two i thought there was either the inflation camp or the non-inflation camp well it goes a little bit more deep by the end of the video i want to know which camp you're in because there are three and you gotta know what they are and it's helpful to know is kathy right about what she says but first i want to just quickly mention that this video is brought to you by masterworks dot io they've got a special link in the description below that lets you skip a wait list that they have so check that out we'll talk more about them in a bit and check out the black friday sale okay let's get right into kathy wood without any other delay check this out kathy wood responds to jack dorsey from twitter and square when jack dorsey says hyperinflation is going to change everything is happening now in this video we're going to really pick apart kathy wood's argument here she says that hey look in 2008 and 2009 when the federal reserve started printing money she thought that inflation was going to take off but she said she was wrong because the velocity of money or the rate at which money turns over declined taking away that inflationary sting and intuitively that seems right it would seem that if i had five dollars and i spent it on a hot dog and that hot dog vendor spent it and then whoever received that money spent in and so on and so forth and that chain happened 10 times then we would create 50 of value but if that chain only happened five times we would create 25 of value and it would make sense that the 10 times version would create more inflation right so it kind of makes sense when kathy wood says oh well yeah the velocity of money is down there's not going to be inflation we're good but wait a minute is that historically accurate and is that actually how the velocity of money is calculated well let's answer exactly that right now so the easiest way to understand the velocity of money is not trying to over complicate it i think most of the time when we hear this phrase we're like this is ridiculous i cannot pay attention to this i do not want to pay attention to this this is insanity but it's really not that difficult because take a look at this there are three things that you got to know and they're really really easy number one let's throw down the size of the economy measured in how much money we spend okay about 21 trillion dollars per year roughly we're going to do rough estimates to show you an example here okay this is known as the gdp the gross domestic product you don't even really have to know that all you have to know is okay size of the economy measured by the sum of all the things that are spent 21 trillion dollars got it sounds good okay cool now let's divide that by how much money exists well we could use something complicated like the m2 money supply or different measures of money supply like how much money is in savings account checkings accounts retirement blah blah blah blah or you could just go with the example and go there's probably somewhere around seven trillion dollars floating around out there okay cool got it got it all right well now if i divide these two the size of the economy by roughly how much money is floating around out there which again could be approximated by m2 or m3 it doesn't matter we're keeping this simple here then you're going to get a velocity of money of three this means a 21 trillion dollar economy was created by seven trillion dollars circulating three times each now that doesn't actually mean that every dollar i spent circulated in the economy three times like you could have spent a dollar and it could have circulated 30 times and i could have spent a dollar and it could have circulated one time it's just a big fat boring average and so when you look at the velocity of money chart and going down and when the velocity of money goes down that means we're probably not going to have inflation right as much as i'd like to agree with that simplistic argument it might be historically wrong we're going to talk about that history in a moment and here's where you could start getting a little sussed out by kathy's argument you ready to get sussed out let's go back to this math for a moment let's say i print three trillion dollars tomorrow like i'm jay pow and i just got this magic money printer and i print three trillion more dollars and we've got a similarly sized economy is that me or does that all of a sudden mean there's no inflation well let's do the math take a look at this okay we are now going to say that there are 10 trillion dollars of money supply which 21 the size of the economy divided by 10 means money supply is actually two point where money velocity is actually 2.1 wait a minute the more money was printed the more the velocity of money went down instantly it's kind of like jerome powell came in with a big punch bowl and it's like hey you were using a small punch bowl earlier which meant when you took punch out of it you were taking a bigger percentage of it now you got a big punch bowl and you're taking out less of a percentage we we need your money to circulate less in other words right we need your juice to affect less of the big pie because we just just got you a bigger punch bowl and everybody likes the party so we got to keep the party going more punch okay don't worry so much about that the point is wait a minute if we print money automatically the velocity of money goes down all right well now take a look at this here's the united states outstanding debt look at it last 20 years from 2020 right here straight up and the velocity of money the last 20 years straight down oh my gosh it literally makes sense you print more money the velocity of money goes down it's that freaking simple but wait a minute what does that tell us about inflation well inflation's nowhere in this equation bingo inflation is actually not in the equation of the velocity of money inflation might literally have nothing to do with the velocity of money but wait a minute we should fact check this because intuitively if my money circulates less that would imply less inflation remember that hot dog example we did yeah well what does history tell us and if the velocity of money doesn't affect inflation then what actually does is kathy right is she wrong what's going on well i'm going to answer that right after i quickly shout out masterworks.io special link down below that lets you skip the waitlist and masterworks wants you to know folks look they let you access an asset class that has low correlation to the market but has technically outpaced the s p 500 by 174 from 1995 to 2020 has seen almost double the appreciation rate of real estate gold and 90 of cryptocurrencies during the same period and according to citibank 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below skip that wait list use that link it down below and check out masterworks thanks for sponsoring this video okay now what does history tell us about the velocity of money because right now you know this so far it's kind of like wait a minute wait a minute kathy woods says velocity is going down but when we do the math velocity doesn't seem to have anything to do with inflation but we should fact check this we should see if there's a pattern in history okay we can do that let's go to history so let's start with the 1970s we had extremely high inflation in the 1970s go to cpi look at this 1970 starting in 1973 massive peaks of inflation 10 11 very very volatile here you go down to six percent then you go all the way up to 14 15 and you come crashing back down so look for between 1973 and about 1983 this was cpi what did it what did the velocity of money do between 1973 and 1983 right here in this period very little very very very little movement so you had mega high inflation the highest inflation that you've ever seen and the velocity of money didn't skyrocket which if kathy wood is right that we're not going to see inflation because the velocity money is going down then then it would make sense that if we're seeing hyperinflation the velocity money would be going up but we didn't see that here we did see the velocity of money have like this giant tumor of an explosion over here in the 90s but what did inflation do in the 90s if kathy wood is right then as the velocity of money goes up we should see more inflation right well what happened in the 90s ah crap inflation went down literally wrong like wrong no correlation in the 70s between the velocity of money inflation no correlation in the 90s between the velocity of money and inflation and what about the next period of 2010 to 2020 well the velocity of money was kind of stable i i'd say relatively flat you could probably draw a pretty relatively flat line through here with the exception of maybe 2015 here so pretty flat and what happened to the velocity of money was the velocity of money flat no the velocity of money plummeted which if the velocity of money plummeted we should have seen inflation uh plummet but it really didn't it kind of stayed consistent and consistently low like probably somewhere around 1.75 percent so you've kind of seen it all here you've seen that the math doesn't agree with kathy wood that the velocity of money that we look at the charts of velocity of money don't seem to have anything to do with inflation the 1970s the 1990s and the 2010s indicate the velocity money has nothing to do with inflation so using the charts for a law the velocity of money to try to understand like are we going to see inflation probably a really bad idea because they're broken that doesn't work now again intuitively it makes sense if i have more money and my money is going to circulate in the economy more then it would make sense that prices would go up right because i could i could create more demand but that would be measured in gdp growth see remember when we were selling hot dogs if the hot dog market it creates 25 dollars of power that goes into the gdp equation which means we have a bigger numerator in that gdp equation which take a look at how that could potentially work you jump back over here and let's say the velocity of money which really we're let's just get rid of that because velocity money doesn't seem to have anything to do with inflation let's go back to the numbers that we originally had which was 7 billion or 7 trillion circulating velocity of money of 3 and a 21 trillion dollar economy well let's say my money went a lot further and instead all of a sudden there were 20 we had a 28 trillion dollar economy okay well the economy grew and in this case the velocity of money went up yeah that's true but did that mean we had inflation or did that just mean the economy grew well in this case we could just compare the united states gdp to what inflation has done and if we look at the gross domestic product for the united states we get this chart right here this is the gdp which you really only see falls during a recession which makes sense people are spending less money during a recession imagine that otherwise it's like straight up and inflation is literally anything but correlated to gdp like it don't care so so far every possible way i can look at measures of how gdp or the velocity of money is related to gdp kathy wood's argument fails it fails every single time and again intuitively it seems like it should make sense but maybe when people spend more money gdp just goes up which kathy wood is expecting gdp to go up but that doesn't necessarily mean we're gonna have a lot of inflation or no inflation or deflation there's no correlation that i can find so instead it seems like inflation is a little bit harder to predict inflation really comes down to supply and demand and that's why we have such crazy debates in fact right now there are a lot of fears that a coveted resurgence in europe could spill over to america during the winter leading to new lockdowns and new restrictions potentially on manufacturing which means we might worsen supply chain constraints and even if demand is constant supply goes down well if supply goes down because of manufacturing constraints or shipping constraints again well then simple econ 101 says supply goes down demand stays constant then price has to go up price goes up if supply goes down but demand is constant the only way price would stay stable is if supply fell but then demand also fell but we've seen that's not how it works so bottom line and then we're going to talk about the three different paths we could actually see with inflation inflation seems to have nothing to do with the velocity of money at least from the research that we could do here using the charts so if you're trying to track what inflation is doing ignore the velocity of money instead focus on what's creating prices to go up and do you think that the reason prices are going to up is going to be a consistent or sort of persistent reason that inflation goes up that's really really important because look prices remember this always always remember this prices of this monster energy drink right here could go from one dollar to two dollars and then we had 100 inflation oh my gosh clickbait 100 inflation prices doubled it's insane okay what then happened the next year it went to 1.99 minus 1 oh my gosh deflation right like you would have to have prices go up every year to have persistent inflation and so you got to ask yourself do you think that prices are going to go up year after year after year after year that could be for rents that could be for food that could be for cars that could be for chips that could be for computers you might say yes and that's fine if that's what you believe then you are going to be in camp inflation which basically says that unless the federal reserve raises rates to stop people from spending cheap easy money then we're going to keep inflating because people are just going to keep buying buying buying buying and if anything they're going to keep buying more on purpose until rates go up because money's just so cheap possible that's camp one camp inflation camp two is the deflationary boom camp and this is where kathy goes see kathy believes that no no no it's gonna be easier to put this monster together and ship it to you in the future we're gonna have robots delivering this to your door in the future is going to be cheaper it's kind of like a 48 inch hdtv hd tv in hg tv too much real estate it's like a 48 inch tv in 2008 costing 2000 and today you buy it on amazon for 300 right that's deflation that's 15 of the cost of what it used to be the other thing kathy wood says is that companies that don't learn how to adopt are probably going to fail become obsolete and to service their debt they're going to have to cut prices and she thinks when this happens we're going to have productivity go up at the surviving companies and we're going to actually see gdp go up during a deflationary time so camp one is we're gonna have lots of inflation and we're screwed unless the fed raises rates kathy says inflation's going to go down we're going to see deflation over time thanks to innovation and older companies going away but we're going to boom because of that we're going to have an economic mega rally because we're going to have the most efficient companies in the world potentially we're going to be spending money without concerns about inflation we could have easy money policies without being concerned about inflation and we're going to boom or you could be in camp ray dalio and this is camp number three and this is inflation's not going to last forever it's going to go down but when inflation goes down and turns into deflation people are going to be motivated not to spend their money which is going to shrink gdp lead to fear and people hoarding money waiting for lower prices creating a deflationary spiral it's kind of like hey if the car is fifteen thousand dollars today and next year it's twelve thousand five hundred dollars and the year after that it's eight thousand dollars i'll just wait to buy a car unless obviously you have a necessity a necessity but if you have the choice if it's discretionary you have the choice which for a lot of people buying a new car is discretionary you just buy a new car because you freaking want one uh that's the american way right then then uh but you might put that off for deflationary purposes well there you go now you might be in a situation where we have a deflationary bust because our economy starts shrinking when our economy our gdp shrinks we fall into recession when we fall into recession the stock market sells off and you got problems so what did we learn in this video well i think we learned a few things number one the velocity of money is not as easy as we think it is we can't just look at the chart of the velocity of money and go that's it velocity money's going down we're good you also can't look at the chart of the velocity of money and go as soon as this goes up we're screwed we're going to go into hyperinflation honestly the hype the velocity of money should just not come up in discussions anymore when we talk about inflation i'm gonna make that a rule for myself no more discussions about the velocity of money because it's a too difficult to measure b if the velocity money goes up gdp goes up which doesn't necessarily mean we're inflating gdp is supposed to go up over time uh we're supposed to be more productive with our resources right uh and and be able to have a larger expanding economy and be able to make more money and spend more money that's the point over time uh if you believe in the growth of america right but we also learned that there are three inflationary camps that one is we're gonna have an uh an inflationary nightmare and unless the fed raises rates we're gonna have hyperinflation we're gonna have problems or maybe we won't go to the extent of hyperinflation but we'll have inflation for a while the other camp is a deflationary boom don't worry about inflation prices are gonna come down and we're just gonna keep booming or we're gonna have a crash because we're gonna have deflation i wanna know from you which camp are you in and what do you think masterworks a link down below and until next time you
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