저자: Kevin · 외국인
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암호화폐 급락 흐름과 기술적 지지선(58k·54k·47k)을 분석. 비트코인 현물 ETF 승인 기대와 SEC 입장, 음바 거래 한도 불만 등을 다룸. 사회자 본인 포트폴리오는 단기 매매 위주.
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hey everyone me kevin here well well well bitcoin is facing a big test and so are a lot of cryptocurrencies this week let's talk about that but also go through some other updates that are going on then we'll look at some ta and see what's going on with price action first a new study done by the civic science foundation found that four percent of respondents to their survey quit their job because of gains in cryptocurrencies which is really really incredible of that four percent they were primarily lower income individuals 27 percent of them made less than twenty five thousand dollars thirty seven percent made between twenty five and fifty k that means sixty four percent of people who quit their jobs because of crypto were making under fifty thousand dollars a year and hopefully have been able to change their lives because of this this is so really cool this is uh and congratulations to those individuals uh this uh this was also uh talked about under a headline one in 25 americans quit their jobs due to gains in cryptocurrencies uh that sounds a lot bigger than four percent but we'll go with it anyway the survey was conducted in the month of october had approximately 1200 respondents pretty respectable sample size for this type of survey remember sample sizes and statistics are all about trying to find a representative random population 1200 is not bad for for this but either way four percent uh of quite frankly if if we could extrapolate this to represent america if this was truly a random survey and if we were able to determine that four percent of the labor force is broadly quitting the workforce because of cryptocurrency it's worth noting that's about six million workers or about five hundred thousand workers not going back to work uh or potentially quitting every single month for a year so in other words one of the reasons maybe we're seeing bad unemployment numbers is because crypto has been doing so well now obviously we're in a little bit of a red moment here with crypto coming off some of the all-time highs that we've recently hit which we're going to talk about in just a moment but really incredible survey younger investors worth noting also much more bullish on crypto than older investors when asked do you expect it to be wealthier than your parents as a result of your cryptocurrency investments 18 to 24 year olds uh 37 uh well actually uh 21 of them said yes and only uh 10 percent of 35 to 54 year olds said yes that means you have twice as much enthusiasm amongst 18 to 24 year olds than you do between 35 to 54 year olds a lot of maybes and uh actually quite a lot of no i don't hear do you expect to be wealthier than your parents as a result of your cryptocurrency investments no i don't i wonder if the no i don't somewhat represents a little bit of a disappointment and how difficult it has been to buy uh larger assets uh for for people's household portfolios usually like real estate because real estate prices have moved uh so substantially but uh more more on uh or more on real estate in a different video uh also by now i'm sure you've heard that the stable center is rebranding to crypto.com it is a 20-year deal it is effective christmas day the staples center has been called the staples center since its inception in 1999 it'll be the first time it's changed its name also we just had regulatory approval for the selling of 56 million dollars in illegal cryptocurrency from a 44 year old promoter of bit connect remember that one bit connect oh man uh we've also got chinese authorities again this week uh doubling down on their quote full scale crackdown on cryptocurrency mining this is potentially leading crypto uh specifically bitcoin to fall under its 60 000 dollar support line uh let's now talk some technical so if we look at some technicals for bitcoin here and then we'll look at some price action on some other coins we we definitely have seen bitcoin now fall under its 60 000 support and it really slow bled out to get under 60 000.
now let's go out to 30 minutes just to compress this a little bit more you kind of see this over here this is uh this is your 60 000 uh i'm sorry this is your 63 000 level here this is 60 000 right here so we had a quick drop from about 63 8 to 60. we rubber banded here but we really had this sort of slow bleed out that stretched out over the last few days here and then all of a sudden we got a sharper sell-off right around 59 000 and that brings us to where we are now which is actually under our 58 000 support line this is a pretty important support line we've been bouncing off of this quite a bit here if we look at the one minute chart we fell below it we dropped down an oversold to about 56.6 now we're bouncing off that 58 line we're dropping again at the moment at the time of this recording this 58 line is very very important because if what we see happen here uh is the same thing that ended up happening at the 60 000 line which is we rubber banded around it for a couple days let's go ahead and look at this here let's zoom out a little bit let's go to 30 men here there we go okay so we see this rubber band around here it lasted from november 15th at about 8 p.m november 15th 8 p.m lasted until about 8 p.m on the 17th that's about two days of rubber banding mostly below the support line creating obviously resistance now we are beginning a potential rubber band under the 58 level if we end up sitting here for a couple days and we can't keep it up over 58 personally i believe that we are heading to 54 000.
now the 54 000 support line is not a very strong support line we have a much stronger support line at 47 000 with uh 4 seven thousand one hundred and another one at forty six thousand eight hundred which really gives you a strong region of support right around the forty seven thousand level this is a strong support line uh i'm not thinking that we're going to be able to see a dip to 37 000 unless we saw some substantial liquidations which is possible the liquidations could go up if if we did uh run to about 47 000 but i do believe that there is a good chance that there is a next stop for bitcoin at about 54 000 i'm not sure if we're going to push down past that support line but we'll see how price action is here but right now the fact that we can't get back over 58 uh over the last uh sort of uh you know two three hours here is something to pay attention to from a technical point of view now uh if you look at bollinger bands right now we are obviously we're at a relative low in terms of bollinger bands i like to use trading view to look at bollinger bands but uh it's worth noting that these will stretch with price action so as with all technical analysis there's always a downside to some ta and we did see right here historically bollinger bands always work better as almost all ta does but anyway we did see a bounce off of the bollinger over here at about that 56 six level although we do and we're starting to see these compress a little bit here which could be a good sign that we're going to kind of stay at 58 hopefully break out over 58 and push back over 60.
that would be best case scenario but if we do continue to get some negativity and some fun whether that's out of china or it's because of bloomberg's notification on their expectations that a bitcoin spot etf is nowhere near close then we could potentially go down to that 54 000 level and then these bollinger bands will obviously stretch down uh so when i when i hear folks talk about bollinger remember it's it's all part of of much more ta and the news cycle the big news piece though is in my opinion what bloomberg announced this morning we covered this live uh when the alert came through the bloomberg terminal uh the uh the notification had to do with uh the bitcoin spot etf would which would be a way for potentially trillions of dollars to flow into the cryptocurrency markets for people to in a low fee lower risk method be able to buy cryptocurrency now the uh of course most cryptocurrency hodlers are much more interested in holding their own coins themselves which i am as well in fact i generally like to buy my coins on coinbase pro because it has the lowest fees and then i could transfer those to areas with higher fees however i have to say i'm very frustrated recently with voyager digital because i transferred about a million dollars i was more like eight nine hundred thousand nine hundred thousand to a million dollars over in cryptocurrency to voyager digital and uh then i wanted to send my cryptocurrency from voyager digital back to coinbase pro to do some trading but i couldn't because i was limited to a 25 000 per transaction limit so kind of frustrated by that i'm sorry per transaction is 250 000 you could trade 250 000 within voyager but if you want to withdraw from voyager to trade because they make their fees on their massive spreads at voyager you can only withdraw 25 000 at a time so it's very very disappointed about that uh not happy i feel like i kind of got chinese handcuffed where it was easy to go in hard to go out right i don't like that but anyway obviously a spot etf would make a lot of cryptocurrency trading and speculating a lot easier we would expect massive inflows into the market and the market has recently been pushing cryptocurrencies to new highs in anticipation of an etf getting approved but the sec has essentially thrown up its hands suggesting that they don't believe that a regulatory agency or or a self-regulating agency like uh exchanges or whatever will be able to prove that a spot etf will not be manipulated or used for fraudulent purposes until there's some form of new law or legal framework and the sec can't create that new law or new framework congress has to do it so we might actually be waiting for congress to act on a bitcoin etf and quite frankly i think before congress reacts on a bitcoin etf we're probably going to end up seeing cryptocurrency regulation on stable coins which could potentially be short-term fud uh followed by then hopefully uh regulatory action on an actual etf a spot etf remember a spot etf would track pricing for bitcoin much more closely compared to a futures etf which we have now which came out with a lot of fanfare uh you know over we've got billions of dollars in assets under management and some of these futures etfs but these are these are dangerous these are expensive you're probably bloomberg's estimating you're probably looking at 10 in annual fees uh just because of backwardation and contango uh and and the way uh futures contracts roll uh and uh you're pretty much getting a bad shake a bad deal if you're buying the bitcoin futures etf to buy and huddle it of course if you're interested in buying and hodling in my opinion the best thing to do is just buy coin and huddle it i am a cryptocurrency trader i very i'm very very passionate about trading and when i see momentum going in a certain direction i like to trade anytime i do trade i send alerts whether it's in stocks uh it's in options or it's in cryptocurrency i anytime i trade i send notifications in my stocks and psychology money group which remember you could use the black friday coupon code link down below for that uh and generally i am looking for trades on a day to a week basis for my trades so somewhere in that range where i'm looking to do trades between i would say 1 to 14 days is usually where i like to trade i'm not much of a day trader so intraday i generally don't trade so i'm not spending too much time on the one or five minute candlesticks i'm generally looking at longer trends and trying to capitalize on those and longer support trends uh so it just kind of gives you a little bit about my personality uh for trading now also bear in mind i only trade with about uh the latter five percent of my portfolio i like to keep a lot of my portfolio in long high conviction plays that i have very long high conviction plays that i have are going to be things like enphase etsy tesla affirm whatever these are very long high conviction plays uh it's soon to be nvidia when i can buy that darn thing on a dip we've only got a small portion of my portfolio in nvidia and i wish i had more but i'm going to wait for a dip to buy uh with cryptocurrency cryptocurrency is a pure trading tool for me i love it i believe in blockchain long run uh substantially but uh but i do regularly trade crypto so i enjoy that but anyway uh this uh this gives you a little bit of insight into uh what's going on i do believe that uh it is very possible that we're we're going to see this 54 000 number if i had to put odds on it you know if i looked into my crystal ball and i had to put odds on this i would probably say that uh we have a good chance of hanging out at 58 for uh for for some period of time before breaking down to 54.
odds of breaking down to 54 i would say probably somewhere around 70 percent so that's kind of looking at my crystal ball and roulette table probably about 70 that we're gonna go to 54. i would probably only estimate that we're around 20 chance of actually falling down to 47 though that's possible depending on how we how we end up trading over here at 54.
uh and and probably only about a five percent chance that we revisit the 30s within the next probably within this year so i would say within the next six weeks a substantial chance of revisiting 54 much smaller chance of revisiting uh some of the the lower numbers here that's just my belief i do think that there is though out of that you know if 70 chance of going to 54 i do think there's probably a 20 chance uh that we that we end up back over 60 000 and stabilizing over there maybe five percent chance that we just end up channeling somewhere in between here those are just sort of my beliefs i do think we'll end up going in one of these directions we'll either get back to 60 and above that uh or or we'll go to 54k so there if you believe that we're going to go down to 54k there could be an opportunity to sell your cryptocurrency investments and rebuy them though remember this does carry significant risk that you could end up missing a sudden breakout so uh that that is something you have to be aware of when you're a trader you can miss breakouts that is the nature of trading so uh these are some of my thoughts uh i will say uh voyager digital has uh ran substantially i am completely out of voyager digital it's worth noting that uh again anytime i send a buy sell alerts i send them in the stocks in psychology when any group like down below but uh i do believe that one of the reasons voyager ran substantially was on shiba inu momentum because you could buy sheep on voyager when you couldn't buy it anywhere else uh i am still very optimistic about voyager's uh coinify partnership i i still haven't made a video diving into directly why i'm bullish on that but i am still frustrated by some elements of voyager that i've been experiencing over the last couple days specifically limits on being able to transfer out and and relatively slow customer service to potentially extending my limits as well as very high spreads when you're buying and selling so if you all of a sudden want to pop into voyager and you're like oh i want to sell because you're you want to trade your stock because you you you're paying large fees if you want to get back to coinbase po pro you've got a problem so if you are a trader you're probably best hanging out uh on coinbase pro or uh and i know this pisses a lot of people off and they roll their eyes at this but honestly if you're a trader and you want literally the best fees and you do not care about staking or actually having your keys uh and you're just speculating robin hood i know that sounds nuts and i'll probably get chastised in the comments for that but they beat everyone's fees and i'm not trying to shell robin hood uh i'm not very happy with robin hood i have a lot of disappointments for robin hood if i were robin hood i would be doing things very very differently uh but again i do think there is a very short term a trading opportunity here in crypto i'm bullish on crypto for the first part of 2020.
uh i will be tracking inflation expectations though and inflation results because i do think that once inflation expectations wane uh there is going to be some selling pressure on crypto however we may have rallied substantially before we ever even get to that point so anyway these are some of my thoughts on crypto the market ] you
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