저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시장이 과열 상태라 고점 매수를 경계하며, 포트폴리오 일부 헤지를 시행했다고 밝힘. 세금 부담을 피하면서 하락장 대비 현금을 확보하려고 리비안(150 풋 100계약)과 매터포트(30 풋 250계약, 약 $650K 규모 헤지)를 매수. 장기적으로는 원자재 가격 하락과 기업 효율화로 인플레이션이 낮아질 것으로 보지만, 만약을 대비해 멀티패밀리 등 부동산 매수를 인플레이션 헤지로 제시. 단기 부동산은 금리 상승에 취약하다고 언급. 시장 전체에 대해서는 여전히 강세.
다듬은 글
hey everyone we kevin here so the market has been very euphoric lately there is no questioning that a lot of stocks have had some very incredible gains certainly if you're invested in the ev sector if you're invested in a lot of tech sectors whether that's uh chips like nvidia or amd or enphase or etsy you have absolutely been killing it the last month and a half even look at end phase we went from 145 to over 250 you've got roblox that went from the high 70s you know where it's kind of been bouncing around and rubber banding back to now over 120 on metaverse talk especially metaverse education oh it's so exciting so juicy so fun but folks markets don't only go up and remember when markets get stretchy with valuations but people tend to get more excited about investing at highs i don't like investing at highs i don't like investing when things are going up it makes me nervous because i know that the more things go up very quickly the more kinetic energy we have which turns to potential for a fall right without getting into science which i love science i'm not very good at it but i love it um i i want to essentially say that the last few days i've been really thinking about what to do with my portfolio i've been thinking about uh selling some stocks to take some profits and uh the reason i thought about that was uh i really i'd rather have a little bit more cash potentially on the side in the event that there is some form of a market dip i'd be able to uh have more cash on the side that i'd be able to go use to buy other things because i like doing that i like buying the dip and so i've been evaluating different ways to potentially build cash to buy the dip and today i decided to do one and i'm going to talk about that stock strategy in terms of hedging but i'm also going to talk about a strategy that i'm taking for hedging potential inflation risks so we're going to talk about both of those in this video so you want to stay for the stocks part watch this first part and then we're going to talk about hedging against inflation so first let's just finish the thought on on hedging the market the way things are right now so the first thing that i'm doing is i'm looking at my portfolio and i'm saying what are my some of my stocks that that i think have moved a little bit more on momentum and hype than potentially fundamentals when i look at a company like enface i believe that enphase was fundamentally oversold because of supply chain fears batteries are very heavy to ship end phase inverters take a lot of microchips and we've had a lot of a supply crisis and problem with this this is one of the reasons i was buying end face like crazy and remember every single time i buy or sell something whether it's a stupid idea or a good idea and obviously i try to be right more than i'm wrong that's obviously every investor's goal and this year has been wonderful so far killing the s p but here's the thing every time i send something again whether i end up being right or wrong the moment i do it i send out an aler and if you're not part of it you may as well join it if you watch the channel you may as well get those alerts as well pay once take some of the great attendees that hopefully you've had over the last few months join use that black friday code this is the best code we're going to have through black friday price goes up black friday night or check out the other programs as well you can bundle most popular bundle is real estate uh with stocks and psychology of money zero to a millionaire for real estate but anyway i just sent out an alert that i'm issuing two hedges and these could end up going very poorly but i see them as an insurance policy because they could also end up going very well see i have two choices for for really hedging well i've actually i mean there are many choices for hedging but there there are two primary choices that i've been considering right now and the first is just straight up selling some shares if i straight up sell some shares like matterport at a you know uh 60 70 gain or whatever uh then actually yeah somewhere around there uh then i would end up paying a substantial amount of taxes so for example if i have two million dollars in matterport and let's say i have gains of uh oh i don't know 700 thousand dollars let's just make a quick example okay i know the percentages don't line up perfectly here i'm just gonna go with seven hundred dollars say there's seven hundred thousand dollars in gains uh if i take uh profits i'm gonna pay probably 55 in taxes so uh simplifying the math again every 100 000 of profits i take out of matterport i'm only going to be putting in my pocket about 45 000 and i've done that a lot this year with option trades where i've done very very well on many different option trades as well as long hold stocks i try to keep my long hold stocks so that way i can get to long-term capital gains or just never pay taxes and i have been trading a lot with my options so i thought to myself well the last thing i want to do right now is really collect more short-term profits uh and pay more taxes because we're getting to the end of the year and this is where it kind of makes sense to start being a little bit strategic again about taxes which really you should be strategic about taxes all year long but there's a little more more of an emphasis that we usually have it towards the end of the year because we're like oh it's the end of the year we gotta think about taxes again and so i thought well if i sell calls against my position then i might re realize premium but if i end up getting called out of those shares i'll pay gains on the shares because the shares are going to be way up even if i get called out i'll pay gains on the premium so i'm paying double taxes here either way which is not so ideal if the market zooms i'd rather not pay any taxes and the way to not pay any taxes is just not to sell your shares just hold on to your shares right and if i sell puts then again i'm taking a premium which is something that is going to lead me to pay taxes right so i thought okay what can i do that doesn't involve selling shares to pay taxes selling calls to potentially pay taxes on the premium or uh if i get called out the shares and the premium right what can i do that might be beneficial for tax purposes while at the same time hedging my portfolio and giving me the opportunity to have cash if there's a dip see this is a very very interesting kind of niche scenario where it's like i only want extra cash if there's a dip i don't want extra cash if there's no dip i just want to be fully invested so i don't really want to sell and sit around with cash twiddling my thumbs because i think we're in the end of the year rally this is this is boom time but i also think things are very frothy and some things have ran up substantially so i thought to myself well what can i do that worst case scenario is a tax write-off doesn't incur me taxes and if the market falls gives me lots of cash potentially and the answer to that was actually buying puts now usually i don't short the market but think about this when you buy puts which is a version of shorting the market when you buy puts you're paying for an insurance contract worst case scenario you lose your premium essentially that insurance contract for you shorting the market right you are forcing somebody else into a contract to promise you to buy shares at a certain price and in return for somebody agreeing to buy shares from you at a certain price you are paying them a premium so i am paying money i'm paying money out this is a tax write-off to consult your cpa okay i'm not a tax professional talk to your cpa i'm a dude on youtube who drinks coffee sometimes out of a level 99 fire making cup which uh that should raise some questions as well and then of course also has a blue grass glass straw to go with this diamond hands coffee mug and sells with prices that go up because of inflation while also suggesting that in the long run there probably won't be inflation we'll see deflation it's just what you're stuck with on the channel here okay like i i'm self-aware okay so i bought some points this is method one of my hedging because there's another strategy for hedging that we're also going to talk about in the second half of this video so what did i buy puts on well first i want to buy puts ideally on something that when it falls is going to maintain high volatility because there are usually you don't want to buy contracts like option contracts when volatility is high unless you expect that volatility is going to remain high as prices potentially u-turn that would be the only excuse for paying a high premium during a high volatility environment uh and there are two stocks particularly one that i own and one that i don't own that i think are really good opportunities to where if the market crashes these two stocks are going to absolutely crash and burn and get obliterated if the market does not crash these two stocks also have the chance of crashing and burning as momentum evaporates see what i'm doing here like i'm trying to put all of the odds in my favor not paying taxes but still want more money if the market crashes if the market crashes i'm gonna pick two stocks that are going to do horribly in a market crash even if it's like a five percent correction for the s p 500 these two stocks will do horrible they'll be down like 50 60 percent if the market does not crash these two stocks still have the potential of being down 30 40 50 percent because they're kind of momentum movers one of them i really love long term the other one i don't so a little bit of mixed bag here on both let's talk about both of these here what contracts i just uh fulfilled or purchased and then let's talk about uh my second method of hedging in the event that we end up having very high inflation now i'm kind of excited to talk about this uh but uh here's the thing i just wanna know that this video or i just want to preface that this video will either age very well or very poorly and i'm okay with that because when you buy puts you're buying an insurance contract let's say these stocks and ma the market overall continue to skyrocket well if they continue to skyrocket that's okay then in this case i'll have paid 350 000 for a hedge on about a 2.1 million dollar portion of my portfolio and i'll have lost that about 16 percent but that's okay because if the market continues to zoom then i'm probably making 16 percent on two mil uh which which would more than off offset these puts even if they went entirely to zero which i might trade out of them before they ever got to that point so this is an insurance policy if this play does very poorly it's a tax write-off it was an insurance policy that i didn't need and it means that my other positions are doing very very well probably if this video ages very well and these positions do very well well then it's because of one of the two things i said either the broader market pulled back or these two stocks or one of the stocks lost momentum we'll see and i don't have to hold these to expiration as well but uh before i begin i want to just quickly show you this screenshot from my course member live stream this morning november 17th lex here mentioned bought your course as an early christmas present to myself and it has already paid for itself a few times over couldn't recommend it more thank you lex for mentioning that during the course member live stream this morning uh thank you thank you very much here's somebody else shout out who just bought your course yesterday talks with psychology money looking forward to getting rich now with the little tongue emoji awesome but uh always really really happy to chat with y'all in the course member live streams that we do every day the market is open check those programs out down below okay now for the contracts the first one folks i bought um 250 puts on rivian uh yeah okay rivian is down 17 today i believe that a 17 decline on rivien today has the potential of starting the trader exodus okay this this to me is like if this went down to a hundred dollars i'd probably get rid of my contract because i think i'll all have succeeded and i i think it would be fair if this sat around like okay there's there's what i think would be fair for it to sit around and then what i would actually pay for it i would pay 50 for the stock which i understand is very low it's below ipo price i i wouldn't be surprised if it sat around a hundred dollars uh as as uh an overvalued ev play that's fine 142 nuts so what i did is i bought some uh some puts uh and i bought the december puts i bought them uh for 150 which means they are in the money puts in the money puts means that i'm already in a position where i could execute essentially and be profitable on them right uh i bought them for 150 i paid uh i don't remember exactly what i paid for them i want to say i paid like 23 for them or something like that right now they're at about 27 it doesn't matter so much but anyway the reason i picked these 150s and this is the kind of stuff by the way that i also teach in the stocks and psychology of money group uh we had a little more open interest here so the spread was more narrow you'll notice there's about between the bid and ask there's about a 40 cent spread right here right here you've got an 80 cent spread here you've got a 30 cent spread but i went for the 150s because i was really only paying three dollars more for having five dollars of protection so i was i was okay with that uh in addition to obviously looking at the historic volatility charts and all the other good stuff this to me was an ideal contract my breakeven's about 123 330 something if i end up holding these to expiration i believe that rivian has a good chance of falling substantially if the market slows down like if we start having two or three red days because jerome powell ends up getting the boot or whatever rivien's gonna get obliterated and if we end up having green days in the stock market i still think rivien has a good chance of falling so that's why i bought 250 put contracts would basically enable me to force somebody to uh buy let me make sure was it was it 250 maybe that was the other one that was 250 hold on whatever it was i paid about hold on i'll i'll just tell you exactly what it was really quick because i think maybe it was the other one that did i did 250 on so um which we'll talk about the other stock as well in a moment the other stock by the way is one that i own okay so i did here we go rivian okay so rivien 150 puts and then we'll go through the other one in just a second ah here it is okay rivian i did a hundred i'm sorry 100 on this and 250 on the other sorry so a hundred puts on this one so a hundred puts means at 150 times 100 shares i could essentially force somebody to buy 1.5 million dollars of rivian at 150 a share and i paid about what like twenty three dollars i'm sorry i paid 26.39 for that right i should have looked at that first but anyway i paid 26.39 for that right uh which is you know about a buck off from where it is now uh so it's already a little profitable but big deal little day swing like this i'm not so worried about i'm looking for more of a larger move over the next couple weeks now the next one that i hedged with was actually one i love and i have about two million dollars in this stock and i bought 250 250 contracts of 30 dollar strike puts in matterport and the reason i chose 30 puts is again they're in the money puts because we're sitting at about 29.69 i do think there is a chance that a momentum will start fading a little bit from matterport and as traders potentially exit once we you know maybe stop talking about the metaverse as much if it zooms that's okay i've got three times as many long shares than i do hedged positions basically via these these put contracts uh and uh for me the thirty dollar put was the cheapest it was one that had a very very tight spread you could see the spreads about 10 cents which is very very good uh you know sometimes you go over here and you're like that's there's a yeah actually you've got actually pretty good spreads here on on matterport for here's a 40 cent spread here's a 30 cent spread so 10 cents pretty good here's a 15 cent spread this one's only at a five cent spread the 22.5 but anyway uh so i went for the 30 to get in the money put i did 250 of these which protects me of about let's do the math here i think it's 650 thousand dollars 250 times 100 shares times 30 is uh 750 000.
that's 650. so uh but anyway that is my second hedge and it is a put on matterport again this is one that i think if the market crashes it'll fall hard if the market doesn't crash it could still fall but if it doesn't i'll make money on the long position now i don't have a long position on rivian but i think if rivian keeps zooming and it goes to like 170 180 again and then zooms over 200 i think at the same time we'll probably also see tesla which is my primary ev play skyrocket because if or vice versa maybe tesla will go to 14 1500 and rivien goes to 250 in which case that put contract will get utterly burned but i'll be making money on the ev sector having euphoria so really again the whole purpose of these puts is to create money when and if momentum fades in companies or sectors that i'm invested in or the market has some sort of substantial pullback and sudden pullback now my second hedge and this is this is a very different style this is a little bit of a longer run hedge and this is in the event i am wrong about inflation which i believe that at some point within the next year or two before we start substantially raising rates i believe that inflation will inflict down that doesn't mean i'm a chill for the fed that doesn't mean i believe everything the fed says i don't i just believe that uh commodity prices are in a 200 year down cycle that down cycle will continue lumber prices will come down input costs will come down i believe as a business owner that when businesses go through stress and issues they become very innovative at making sure that in the future they never have those problems again because companies don't like stress or problems they like efficiency and so i think we are going to be greasing the wheels of corporate america so strongly through this this test through this disaster through the supply and labor and shipping crisis that we will end up having extremely well greased and well-oiled corporations come 2022 holiday season and i do believe that inflation has a very high likelihood of falling however i'm not stupid and i know that i don't have a crystal ball and that i could be wrong and so i am hedging myself by making sure that i maintain a very strong interest in buying real estate now i know that doesn't sound very sexy to everyone but i am open to multi-family apartments probably multi-family apartments i would follow what i talk about in my i'd be looking for ideally below market rent but newer units alternatively i will look for fixer-upper single families i generally don't want fixer-upper multi-family they're very different market inefficiencies and you're dealing with very different classes of investors and so you have to understand the opportunities in different real estate markets and they're very different between single-family multi-family this is why single-family multifamily investors don't tend to get along because they have totally different mindsets and that's okay i just realized they're different forms of investing which by the way if you ever potentially want to invest with me go to medkevin.com cash flow and fill in your info medkevin.com cashflow and invest with me so anyway uh real estate uh ideally if you can buy multi-family or some sort of investment property before the end of the year talk to your tax professional but you might be able to take advantage of some special cost segregation benefits to reduce some of your tax exposure as well prior to the end of the year now how is real estate a hedge well consider this let's say you have a million dollars in real estate and eight hundred thousand dollars of debt and the rent that you're getting is six thousand dollars per month or about seventy two thousand dollars seventy two thousand dollars divided by eight hundred thousand dollars is about nine percent so you're getting about uh nine percent in rent every single year gross numbers here versus the debt that you have right well if we have inflation first of all we expect that interest rates are going to go up that is going to hurt resale values quickly so you cannot short term use real estate to hedge against inflation you'll get screwed short term do not use real estate as an inflation hedge because if rates go up prices will fall quickly but i invest in real estate for the very long term like i do not trade real estate because real estate is very expensive to trade and because it's so expensive to trade and so hard to trade i don't really trade real estate i keep my real estate so i don't really care what happens with values but i still want to use it as an inflation hedge tool which i can because here's what happens let's say we have substantial inflation and i'm wrong about inflation we get substantial inflation now all of a sudden that 72 000 of rent goes up by let's say uh 30 over the next three years or 10 percent a year-ish should be a little more because of compounding or whatever well now my expected uh rent for the property would probably be somewhere around at least 20 000 more so somewhere around uh 92 93 000 93 000 versus the 800 000 i have means i'm now getting about 11.6 percent of my total debt and gross rent which i just boosted how much money i'm now able to use every single year to pay my debt off and because my expenses are mostly fixed because principal and interest stay constant and property taxes move very slowly and so does insurance they move very very slowly i'm going to be able to use that extra money and pay that debt off much much faster so i basically inflated away the debt and the tenants who are getting screwed by inflation are now paying that property off for me faster so this is how inflation can actually help you pay off your real estate debt as a real estate investor faster now if you're a tenant you want to become a real estate investor or your real estate investor and you want to expand real estate programs link down below don't be a tenant forever keep in mind i do have about 42 of my total around 50 million portfolio invested in real estate these are my two large hedges for the next really 30 45 days of the year that we have left uh this is uh this is my thought i'm still very bullish on the market so i don't want anybody to just well i mean it's going to happen people read the title and they're like yeah like i missed your fud it's like i'm pretty sure i'm pretty bullish on this market uh you know we're just talking about like the fringe here but whatever uh sucks for them they never gain insights when they just jump around videos it's their loss so anyway thank you for making it to the end of and goodbye you
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