저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 현 하락장에서 장기 투자자에게는 매력적인 가격대가 많지만, 단기 방향은 연준 긴축과 고용 둔화 여부에 달려 있다. 투자 기회 관점: 최근 8주간 주가가 크게 하락해 많은 종목이 매력적인 위험보상 구간에 들어왔다고 봄. 매출 성장률이 높은 기업이 역성장 기업보다 할인 거래되는 등 가격보다 포지션 청산 위주의 매도가 나타나는 중이라고 설명. 경기침체·스태그플레이션 관점: 연준은 소프트랜딩을 목표로 긴축을 이어가되, 실제로는 고용 감소나 GDP 수축 같은 수요 파괴를 원하는 것으로 해석. 노동시장 완화, 재고 과잉에 따른 상품가격 하락, 공급망 정상화, 전쟁 종료 등 시장이 충분히 반영하지 않은 긍정적 경로가 여럿 있다고 주장. 고용 데이터 관점: JOLTS는 약 6주 지연된 데이터라 Indeed 등 일별 데이터를 사용. 3월 31일 이후 소매·레저·헬스케어·건설 등 4개 업종 구인이 크게 둔화했으며, 헬스케어 감소는 코로나 인력 수요 축소 때문이라고 설명. 노동시장이 연준 인식보다 훨씬 약할 수 있다고 봄. 리스크 관점: 소비 강세와 임금 강세가 상승 논리의 핵심인데, 공식 통계에 잡히지 않은 노동시장 약화가 확인되면 조정이 필요할 수 있음을 인정. 통화정책 관점: 이번 긴축은 신용 축소보다 자산효과(부의 효과) 채널로 수요를 누르려는 첫 사례이며, 고용 약화는 이 압력을 완화해 주식이 상당히 반등할 수 있는 계기가 된다고 봄. 다만 중심 시나리오는 크래시가 날 때까지 긴축이 이어지는 것이라고 봄. 출연자 전망: 긍정적 경로가 많다며 주식 반등 가능성을 열어 두지만, 조건부 낙관론.
다듬은 글
you know i i would say for anyone who's an investor there's a lot of bargains out there i mean there's so many stocks that have been obliterated in the last eight weeks uh we've been highlighting how companies with faster revenue growth now traded at discount to companies that actually have negative revenue growth so there's been more of a investors getting out of positions not really looking at price and so i think a lot of stocks are pretty attractive risk reward i like how you qualify that if you're an investor meaning that's a longer term horizon in the near term tom i'm wondering how you think the markets start digesting this idea of a potential recession and now now creeping to the conversation there's a talk of stagflation out there whether or not you think it's true and i believe that you're in the boat she thinks that it's not true it's out there and it's a concern so how does the market process that we've seen what's happened in the past seven weeks for the dow in the past eight weeks for the s p and nasdaq uh yes i mean the you know it's clear that the central case for investors is the fed's gonna tighten until they achieve what they want which is you know engineering a soft landing but really what they'd like to see is a demand destruction by either jobs falling or uh you know gdp contracting and i i think the thing that is not really priced and very difficult to price is a lot of things could go right i mean something as simple as uh labor market could start to ease because you get rebounders people coming back to the workforce or the job market weakens or we could have a real decline in goods prices now that we've seen it from these retailers they have too much inventory that's actually deflationary you know some supply chains could come back online better than expected and and possibly the war could end i mean so i think if you think the cumulative probability of many of these things is much greater than the market's discounting that means stocks and the fed could actually be much further along than people realize you've been taking a look at the data tom data from indeed for instance and i'm wondering what you see and how you interpret that there's been some pullback in hiring in certain sectors which would seem to me like on the surface that's bad news um but that's actually what the fed wants to happen yeah i actually think um the job market's really important to watch and and i think i think the market and investors and your audience has to be aware the fed really has to work with some lag data the jolts report that they cite from their may fomc meeting was from was with data from march 31 it's always six weeks lagged and that's why our team's been looking at the nd data which was actually updated daily there's four industries that have accounted for the majority of the rise in job postings that's retail leisure health care and then construction and as we highlight in our note if you look at the data since march 31 all four have actually seen a pretty big downturn in health care it's not because people aren't going to see the doctor it's just that the staffing required for covet has drastically declined so i think the job market could be a lot softer than the fed has in mind when they say that the jolts data shows us the tightest job market in history i mean everything since march 31 shows it's weakened a lot why doesn't that give you a pause for concern tom if the job market is softer than we think i mean the whole the whole bolt you know one major pillar of the bull case is that the consumer remains strong that wages remain strong the consumer can handle inflationary spikes and periods of inflation because they have better jobs etcetera but if we are seeing softness in the job market that perhaps the official data isn't showing then shouldn't we really be worried it seems to beg for some sort of adjustment in the market well it's a good question it's like a is it a heads i win tails i lose or whatever um i think it's what the market's going to care about is monetary policy because this is really the first time the fed's using the channel of wealth effect to try to slow the economy not through tightening credit as much as trying to really hit demand if the job market weakens that's going to alleviate the biggest pressure point which as paul said many times it's the tightest job market in history so i think if that pressure valve eases it starts to take a lot of pressure especially from the market's perspective about what the fed has to do and that's why i think stocks could actually rally pretty substantially again there's many paths for for positive outcomes and i think the central case of this is a tightening until we have a crash you know even jamie dimon's comments today really address the fact that maybe the market central case is too hawkish all right tom we'll see we'll leave it there thank you tom lee always good to see you
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