Why YOU MUST Buy Stocks in 2022 [Tom Lee]

요약 보기

결론: 톰 리는 2021년 12월 기준 S&P500이 연말까지 4,800, 2022년 초 5,000까지 갈 수 있다는 기존 입장을 유지한다. [시장 전망] S&P500 연말 4,800 이상, 2022년 초 5,000 목표를 고수하며, 계절성(강한 연말 랠리)을 근거로 든다. [연준 해석] 전날 연준의 테이퍼링 가속 및 금리 인상 로드맵 발표 후 시장이 상승한 이유는, 경제가 정상화되는 과정이라는 연준의 프레임을 시장이 수용했기 때문이라고 분석한다. 연준이 델타·오미크론 등 변이 리스크를 언급한 점도 긴축 속도를 늦출 여지로 본다. [유동성] 테이퍼링은 긴축(tightening)이 아니라 완화 축소(accommodation 미추가)이며, 유동성은 여전히 충분하다고 본다. [변이·코로나 리스크] 남아프리카 확진 양성률이 지난주 꺾이기 시작했고 입원율은 아직 크게 오르지 않았다. 일부 도시 하수 데이터에서 오미크론이 많은 지역을 이미 통과했을 가능성의 근거가 있다고 언급한다. [리스크] 2022년 2월 파월 재임명 전후로 연준의 성향이 바뀔 가능성을 언급하며 불확실성을 지적한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. you're sticking with your call i mean that's the bottom line 4 800 end of this year if not even stronger and 5 000 into the beginning of next year yes uh i mean i know uh the time window is really shrunk because we're essentially only two weeks left of the year but we know it's a strong seasonal uh we're watching south africa closely but as you know last week positivity started to roll over and we're going to check the regional cases but as you know hospitalization's barely picked up and then if you look at some of the sewage data in some cities uh there's some evidence that potentially where you know omicron's run burn through a lot of areas so omicron's very contagious but then it burns through it people forget there's another side of omicron which is when it peaks my committee members call the move yesterday post-fed nonsensical um do you want to take issue with that uh well you know one day moves and markets are hard to explain um so uh so i i don't blame jim for describing it that way but to me the reason i thought the market rallied yesterday is that the rationale the fed gave for why they sort of changed their view on on tapering plus the road map for for potential rate hikes uh is an economy that's normalizing uh with both you know demand shocks fading and the supply shocks fading but at the same time that framework included the risk that variants like the delta variants slow the economy and if omicron has an impact that they could walk back uh this framework and and that's very you know that's a template that the market understands and agrees with and doesn't think there's policy error so to me uh i think it's actually a risk on road map that he provided because it's sort of saying look unless delta and omnicron and omicron and other variants you know don't sort of change trajectory the fed could be tightening but that's sort of what the market wants is that a fed that sort of still has the markets back now you're not trying to describe a goldilocks environment are you where even though we're having fed tightening it's what the market wants it's what the economy can withstand and yet it's going to be flexible enough in that environment and by the way we still have a lot of liquidity even though they're doubling the pace of the taper let's not think that because they're doing that all of a sudden the rain stops falling from the sky right there's they're still doing that that's exactly right he he said it several times that tapering is not tightening it's just not adding accommodation which is different than removing accommodation which is what rate hikes are and i do think the market wants the fed to be a bit of an inflation watcher and that's very clearly stated so if inflation is not going to track worse than expected then the fed doesn't have to act faster and then if we have sort of you know as you know this looming uncertainty because of these variants and and the transmissibility that's gonna you know that's gonna create the uncertainty that keeps the fed a little more delvish and i think post confirmation which is in february you know we could also have a change in the character the fed but at the moment it's important for for powell to be reconfirmed so you're sticking with your call i mean that's the bottom line 4 800 end of this year if not even stronger and 5 000 into the beginning of next year yes uh i mean i know uh the time window is really shrunk because we're essentially only two weeks left of the year but we know it's a strong seasonal uh we're watching south africa closely but as you know last week positivity started to roll over and we're gonna check the the regional cases but as you know hospitalization's barely picked up and then if you look at some of the sewage data in some cities uh there's some evidence that potentially where you know omicron's run burn through a lot of areas so omicron's very contagious but then it burns through it people forget there's another side of omicron which is when it peaks