저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2022년 전망과 2021년 시장 회고. 2021년 S&P500 목표치 4600은 현재 수준(약 4600대)과 일치하며 적중했다고 봄. 2022년 기본 시나리오는 S&P500 약 24% 상승. 변동성(VIX) 하락이 핵심 근거. 2020년 VIX 평균 27 이상 → 2021년 16~18 수준, 변동성 안정이 주식 재평가로 이어짐. 과거 VIX 하락기 평균 수익률 약 25%를 근거로 제시. 가계 자산 중 주식 비중이 역사적 고점(약 25%대, 1999년 약 21%)에 근접. 다만 자동 누적 효과 때문에 과열 신호로 단정하기 어렵다고 봄. 하락 시 저가매수 자금 유입이 지속되는 현상을 언급. 소수 대형주(애플·마이크로소프트·대형 금융주)가 지수를 좌우하며 시장 폭은 악화 중이라는 점을 짚음. 2021년 IPO 399건, 약 1420억 달러 조달로 역대 최대 규모. 기업공개 붐은 성장 섹터 자본조달로 해석. 2021년 S&P500 및 동일가중 S&P 모두 약 26% 상승, 강세장 지속 언급. 2022년에도 강세 기조를 유지할 것으로 봄.
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i think that for the last 20 years stocks were considered a suckers game yeah right because people invested in alternatives bonds and thought great blue chip companies were just a suckers game well whenever they went up they were riskier yeah right and that they'd crash any time um but i think kovitch showed the these companies aren't killable they we might be in a period where pes go up a lot in the next decade tom we're gonna start with what you thought was the biggest surprise of 2021 and by the way not that you were very surprised by this year because you seem to have gotten this year mostly right from the outset which we're going to get into in a second but what would you say was the thing that was most surprising to you uh i would say if i went to the highest level and was trying to look down at the market i think the resilience of the stock market is the biggest surprise but was it where was your target in january uh might have been to like 46 hundred and where are where are we today 46.
so that wasn't a surprise to you at all you're like a wizard yeah but you know that's a double that's a 20 like we're of 20 kind of year okay so was that like a stretch was that like a stretch target for you or you felt like you felt really good about it uh so i was look i'm working on my 2022 outlook so i'm been we're looking at what we said in for 2021 no we're all gonna spoil that uh but it turns out that the base case is 24 percent year okay uh because the biggest reason is that we expected volatility to collapse and and that was the case for most of this year we got two vic spikes but they were both kind of baby spikes yeah so the vix averaged in 2020 at over 27.
mostly that's from q1 correct and stayed elevated though the whole didn't write it yeah it didn't drop it was the third highest ever for delivered ball and so in the two prior instances when vol drops you were you had a 25 average game okay so that was our base case this year okay so so you were looking at it like look we know we're not done with covid we know we're not done with a lot of the the the problems of reopening but it's unlikely to have an average vix as high as the one from 2020 correct yes so you'd have to really keep the level of anxiety high enough to keep average fixed 27 and you know this year we're probably averaging 16 or 18 and and that drop is a re-rating of the stock market so volatility plays a big role in your forward-looking analysis uh in certain moments like now where we are here for next year volatility is not central to our thinking now to what how markets can perform okay so how do you know when when to take that into account or not uh it's like it's a sort of a signal from noise okay thing which means it's same thing with like aai sentiment it doesn't mean anything until it gets to an extreme one way or the other yeah okay um we're gonna talk about sentiment a little bit later what's your what's your big surprise for this year i've got a few i don't want to hijack too much of this but i'm i'm surprised at how quickly everybody was right on the ark story arc had all of the attention in 2020 outside of the of covid like just on the stock market side uh i sucked all the oxygen out of the room and i'm surprised at how quickly it gave a lot of it back and that everybody all of the people that have been on wall street for more than two years we're waiting for the young people to either come up and it happened so quickly and so and so obviously it's like indisputable at this point like what what are the stats on ark how much is it down from its peak a lot 40 i think and there are some individual stocks in there that are down like six i mean sixty so so one other thing surprised me uh and maybe they shouldn't but carl quintanilla tweeted this the other day the percentage of total household assets and equities is like so far above what it's ever been and given where we came from last year this this this is an interesting chart and that's with housing prices way higher too that's true that's a good point so for context for context this peaked in 99 at around 21 and i don't know exactly how this is measured but we're bumping up against 25 indisputably and this chart goes back a long time indisputably uh it's not it's not bullish when stock when households are this aggressive i do think you could easily make the case that it's different this time well yeah and i i would say that my only issue with charts like this is it's based on assuming you have to do a forced ranking like a forced allocation um like no like what do you mean by that that means when you do percentage to 100 right this is percentage in equities then households don't necessarily make a conscious asset allocation decision right so equities can become a large percentage because they never sell and they've gone up a lot yeah but but they don't have to say allocate more equities can just compound okay and so so if your equity is compounding faster than your net worth it's going to actually rise so this what this is not showing is like flows for example this is this doesn't necessarily show people getting all built up yeah so they're not necessarily forced to rebalance like nobody every year says my household net worth i need to reallocate out of stock yeah i'm going to trim some of my house and buy some more stocks yeah that's a good point people don't write people don't look at their their household net worth their household total assets whatever this is showing and say like i'm underweight stocks relative to where i wanted to be yeah i mean relative to my primary mortgage nobody says that and then if you throw crypto in there like then you're going to automatically say well crypto has already broken the tape the scale because it's never been this high well so the other thing is the other thing is isn't this just a concurrent indicator it's like margin debt yeah like like yeah of course stocks are a higher percentage not because people got more bullish but because they went up them correct that's successful what's your biggest surprise do you have one uh my biggest surprise is that we got through that delta variant without having to like do the whole great depression conversation all over again i really did not think we would be able to shake that off to the degree that we did and none of the work from home stocks worked during delta like they started to crash when was delta is that spring was that july it peaked like it peaked in september but it started in july you look at the chart you don't even see it like if you if you were like everybody's selling off these work from home stocks they're gonna be wrong kovid's about to make a comeback or a new wave so that did happen and those stocks just continued to get killed yeah i i think one difference is uh with each variant there's an expiration date like the delta burned out yeah and omicron will burn out i mean delta did a lot of damage more people died in 21 than 20 from the pandemic in america and i'm not sure if that's true globally i know that's true here so it yes it burns out but like yeah not before it takes a lot of people with it yeah here's another chart i want to talk about throw this one up from katie greyfield uh this is a quote from jp morgan's clinton warren we have clients calling in historically when the market pulled back ten percent and then those clients calling to buy in at five percent and now it's two percent any two percent move or so clients are getting in just who's katie uh griffin she works for bloomberg so just the relentless nature of clients waiting to buy the dip it seems like again to this point it was ten percent we'll get in now it's fine i mean they are just the the dip buyers are relentlessly showing up that that's been surprising to me as well yeah i mean that's a 1990s uh phenomenon because i was at smith barney in the 90s and smith barney is wirehouse plus institutional and quinton stevens who was head of equity capital markets you know we'd have like a weekly huddle and every time the market was down a little bit he'd just tell us how much money came in from retail and yeah josh a week a week or two ago we were like joking like is this it like did the stock market just them and the s p was off five percent the nasdaq was off seven now of course a lot of the high flyers were down 70 percent so and but but but that was the bottom and the market just made a new high interest yeah two questions did the stock market bottom or did apple and microsoft bottom it's two entirely different questions so and and one of them has more of one of them has more importance to the s p 500 than the other so we've had this phenomenon now i think for six months with deteriorating breadth um there is a rotation there is a new group of stocks that have led in the last six months but they're not that important or big the only thing that really matters if you're talking about quote unquote the market is apple and microsoft for how much longer and the giant financials like that's a big piece of the market too those and those are working what's the biggest financial berkshire 600 billion okay goldman is 150 billion you're going to tell me that matters jp morgan berkshire bank of america they do matter okay combined right fair uh all right so do you do you think that people are do you think that this is just a learned behavior this automatic buying of the dip after two percent because it's worked for so long people don't know anything else i i think that for the last 20 years stocks were considered a suckers game right because people invested in alternatives bonds and thought great blue chip companies were just a suckers game well whenever they went up they were riskier yeah right and that they'd crash any time um but i think kovitch showed the these companies aren't killable they we might be in a period where pes go up a lot in the next decade so so here's another that was kind of the thesis behind the dow 36 000 book which i think came out in 97 or 98 where they basically said no it's not it's not that uh stocks can just become overvalued forever it's that they've been undervalued for too long and not that they were proven right or anything but that was that same idea which is that we have systematically been pricing blue chip us companies at too low of a multiple for the history of the stock market given how much return we've gotten from them and that was their big idea so my my big surprise i wanted to just throw out quickly was the ipo market uh 399 ipos in 2021 raised a combined 142 and a half billion worth now a combined 90 billion well we'll get to that in a sec uh the busiest year by deal count since 2000 even though a lot of those are stacks they're still deals yeah um the biggest year for proceeds of all time 27 of those deals were billion dollar plus um the biggest one being rivien which raised 12 billion which is the largest since alibaba's what else was big this year i can't really remember that many uh i think coinbase robin hood uh oh those are twenty one twenty twenty one vintage yeah i mean rivien is so enormous but were you surprised at all by the strength in demand for new issues or does that just go hand in hand with an up market is it just as simple as that uh well the the companies you described are actually in growth areas so i think it would be appropriate that you know like there's gonna be big deals because these are like you know if you remember like the philip morris like the deals in the 90s which is big conglomerations yeah that's a different kind of capital raise than growth companies right i i don't know if the ev space is over capitalized now but there were a ton there you know crypto i think is still early so i i don't think you can over capitalize crypto at the moment do you notice that the same people who were ringing their hands about too much private equity take privates like they're taking all the stocks off the market this is terrible that's too many then you flip the switch you get 400 ipos in a year and i don't know what last year was probably 250 or 300.
it's like oh no there's too much deals well goldilocks uh when would you how many deals would you like what would be the optimal amount i'm sure you hear a lot of that chatter or get asked questions about that kind of thing yeah i uh you know so here's the thing i am struggling with some of these high-level math numbers because the numbers are just so big now you know like household net worth is 600 percent of gdp yeah but it's not as if household net worth is over capitalized it's just that's how rich americans are yeah that it's it the 600 gb is so big you could you don't actually need capitalism wait household net worth to gdp so deduct mortgages deduct credit card debt just the assets themselves yeah so if you took a whatever that's instead of yes the u.s economy is let's say 25 trillion household net worth is 143 trillion how is that possible so that do it say it crypt is like two trillion of that okay but a bit but that number is like a real like that's heart that's actual residual book value what was that number in the 60s or the 80s or something it's never been this high well this is i don't know if this is exactly right this is household and nonprofit organizations net worth divided by gdp is that sort of the chart you're talking about uh no because if it's updated it is all-time high i i'll pull it up on my phone i can ask mike yeah while he's doing that this surprised the hell out of me as well the the smp5 finder was up 18 last year yeah i think it was up 30 the year before that yeah it's up 26 this year does it not not only does it feel good not feel like that guess what the equal weight version of the s p is up the exact same amount it's not just mega cap stocks they're each up 26.4 as of today i would not have guessed that that's that's a big 2021 surprise 26 that's a raging raging bull market yeah i mean they're very few years way better than this yeah right 2019 was an amazing year this this is coming pretty close
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