저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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한줄결론: 빌 애크먼은 2022년 연준이 즉시 테이퍼링을 시작하고 금리를 올려야 한다고 주장했으며, 이는 과거 팬데믹 때와 유사한 시장 경고 패턴으로 보인다. [2020년 팬데믹 당시 발언] - 2020년 3월 CNBC에서 미국 전체 30일 셧다운을 주장하며 호텔·항공·보잉 등의 붕괴를 경고함 - 근거: 힐튼 주가 약 120→50 하락 예시, 파크호텔 33→4, 보잉 70% 이상 하락 언급 - 언급 종목: 힐튼(하락 전망), 파크호텔&리조트(하락), 보잉(하락, 정부 구제 없으면 생존 불가) [영상 측 주장: 당시 숨은 포트폴리오] - 영상은 애크먼이 CDS(신용부도스와프) 포지션을 몰래 구축해 약 2,700만 달러를 투입, 한 달 뒤 26억 달러로 회수했다고 주장 - 이 내용은 영상 제작자의 주장이며 본 요약에서는 사실 확인되지 않은 내용으로 간주 [2022년 연준 관련 발언] - 뉴욕 연은 프레젠테이션에서 연준은 즉시 테이퍼링을 시작하고 금리를 빠르게 인상해야 한다고 주장 - 인플레이션이 높고 경제가 강한데 제로금리 유지는 부적절하다고 평가 - 델타·오미크론 변이를 금리 동결 근거로 삼는 것은 설득력 없다고 반박 - 영국은행 금리 인상, IMF의 연준 비판 등을 근거로 제시 - 본인 운용 펀드는 금리 상승 헤지 포지션을 취하고 있다고 공개 [조건/리스크] - 금리 인상이 실현되면 애크먼은 수익을 얻고, 인플레이션 완화·공급망 정상화 기대 - 발언 의도(시장 조작 여부)에 대한 비판 존재, 영상은 사익 추구 가능성을 지적하되 논리 자체는 타당하다고 평가 [출연자/영상 관점] - 영상 진행자는 애크먼의 2020년 행위를 시장 조작으로 비판하나, 2022년 금리 주장 자체는 데이터에 기반해 타당하다고 판단 - 연준 금리 인상 압력이 실제로 작용하고 있으며 연준 정책 변화에 영향력이 있었다는 추정 제시 - 영상 내 '지옥이 다시 온다'는 경고는 애크먼 특유의 시장 경고 패턴으로 해석 [예측 발언 정리] - 연준 금리 인상 및 테이퍼링 필요 주장 (인플레이션 기준) - 금리 상승 시 장기 주식 포트폴리오에 부정적 영향 우려 (본인 헤지 포지션 보유)
다듬은 글
almost two years ago to the day we started to hear about the coronavirus pandemic a new virus eerily similar to sars that was starting to worry a fair few people over in china now at this point it was very early days the chinese communist party was suppressing any and all free press regarding the virus determined to protect the country's pride and ensure that no one ever found out what was really going on of course that never ended up working the virus broke free it spread to every corner of the world and within just a couple of months the world started to panic it pretty quickly became clear that things were going to change that businesses were going to be shut down schools would be closed and people confined to their homes in an attempt to curb the spread of this virus go back to march of 2020 and this was all coming to fruition governments were starting to react and marcus was starting to panic here enters a man a hedge fund manager a billionaire and someone with more money than morals bill ackman who was determined to ensure that no crisis should occur with at least one person getting filthy rich he went on cnbc and he screamed at us all he told us that the world was ending that hell was coming and that everything was about to change in that now infamous speech he outlined his beliefs his views and thoughts on the pandemic that was quickly evolving but what he didn't reveal was his secret portfolio that was perfectly poised to drastically increase in value as he spread fear amongst the markets the really worrying thing is though that he might be doing this again or at least that's what some people have been claiming bilakman recently went on another run screaming this time at the fed claiming that once again hell is coming and that we must act now today we're going to look back at what he has to say right now what his fears are and how this situation which is still evolving as we speak is similar to the one at the start of the pandemic but first leave a like and a comment to bless the youtube algorithm if you want more content like this then check out our patreon and join our community of investors you get access to our discord loads of exclusive content like private live streams extra videos and buying sell alerts for my own personal portfolio so what exactly happened back on the 18th of march 2020 well bill ackman went on cnbc and he said this a number of ideas you put forth i'm going to read one of them for our viewers to start mr president the only answer is to shut down the country for the next 30 days and close the borders you say tell all americans that you are putting us on an extended spring break at home with family keeping only essential services open the government pays wages until we reopen i know from our conversations that you have been worried for some time how did it manifest today with these tweets and going public maybe just a little bit of context you know i'm an optimist um but beginning in i don't know late january i was getting increasingly bearish and i woke up with a nightmare my nightmare was you have this virus that replicates uh and infects incredibly rapidly you know each person infects two and a half people each of whom affect two and half people you know one becomes two two becomes four four becomes sixteen sixteen two fifty six sixty five thousand you get to just massive massive numbers i'm watching this thing roll out uh in china okay and the same thing's happening right now in our country right it starts with the guy who owns a uh embassy suites hotel okay he's wiped out right you've got you know when you go from 80 occupied to zero okay your toast you gotta go down 50 your toast but you're certainly toast when you go to zero so he defaults but now you know take a look at hilton stock we're a major shareholder of hilton hilton is the canary in the coal mine this is an incredibly well capitalized amazing dominant global company that actually doesn't know many hotels it just collects royalties down from like 120 to 50.
okay it's going to zero okay along with every other hotel company in the world you know park hotels and resorts you know stocks down from 33 to 4. this is a spin-off from hilton why is it down from 33 to 4 because every hotel is going to be shut down in the country everyone hang on hang on just one second um you say hilton is going to zero i mean again i'm a major shareholder what i'm saying is if we allow this to continue the way we allow it to continue okay every hotel company in the world okay is done okay because no business can survive a period of 18 months without revenue okay and that's sick with me and that's what happens okay when if you operate the way we're operating now you know the hotel industry and the restaurant industry will go bankrupt first boeing is you know on the brink okay boeing will not survive without a government bailout okay so look at airline industry auto industry restaurant industry hotel industry um you know capitalism does not work in an 18-month shutdown capitalism can work in a 30-day shutdown and we got to do the 30-day shutdown and if the president has to bring out the national guard to keep people in their homes which i don't think he will need to do you should do it in short he spread fear he screamed bloody murder and warned us all of our impending doom and in doing so he helped to trigger a crash of a bunch of different companies all of whom were likely to suffer under the circumstances that he described hilton hotel's stock fell over 50 over the course of about a month park hotels and resorts lost almost 70 percent across that same month and boeing fell over 70 as well now what bill had failed to mention was that he knew this was going to happen he knew his voice was loud enough and well known enough to cause this crash and he made sure that he was ready to profit from that knowledge behind closed doors he built a portfolio up of credit default swaps based on companies that he knew were going to crash in a move eerily similar to that of michael bowie's big short all in he put around 27 million dollars into this hedge into this trade but by the end of the month when he cashed it all out he had 2.6 billion dollars sitting in his bank account this trade that was put together over the course of a few weeks that only took a month or so to come to fruition and that was fueled by a manic rant on a tv news station became one of the most profitable single trades of all time now bill understandably got a lot of flack for this move once it emerged that he had essentially manipulated the entire market and made over two billion dollars off of the back of panicking investors it was a shady move no doubt and if i told you about it without going into detail you'd probably think that this all happened long before the scc even existed back in the roaring 20s when market manipulation was all too common the reality behind the situation here really is that this should have been a crime and not a small one either but the nature of the financial system in the us means that this sort of stuff goes unpunished constantly now that story is full of facts we know for a fact that bill built up his short position in secret we know for a fact that he spread fear and panic throughout the markets and we know for a fact that he profited to the tune of 2.6 billion dollars as a result with this next story though we aren't so sure we know things have been said and actions have been taken but this situation is still evolving and there are a few key differences as well nonetheless this could turn out to be bilakman's second big show his second run at market manipulation and so it is without a doubt worth talking about now if you're like me you probably have some concerns about the state of our economies with inflation at seven percent lots of investors are looking for non-market correlated assets and that's where this video sponsor masterworks dot io and fine art comes in fine art has proven to be a far better investment than you probably realize returning 14 a year compared to the s p 500 9 a year since 1995.
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portfolio is important to you then make sure to check out masterworks.io there's a link down below in the description for you to check out so what exactly is going on well a couple of months ago he came out with these tweets i gave a presentation to the federal reserve bank of new york last week to share our views on inflation and fed policy the bottom line we think the fed should taper immediately and begin raising rates as soon as possible we are continuing to dance while the music is playing and it is time to turn down the music and settle down as we have previously disclosed we have put our money where our mouth is in hedging our exposure to an upward move in rates as we believe that a rise in rates could negatively impact our long-only equity portfolio he explained that he gave a presentation to the new york fed and that the overarching thesis of his talk was that the markets are fought with risk and that the fed needs to end their asset purchases immediately and raise rates as well in order to preserve financial stability he also said that he is positioning his fund to do well as interest rates rise in a preemptive attempt to stop people from claiming that he's just trying to manipulate the market of course just because he's clear about where his money lies that doesn't necessarily mean that his intentions are pure but let's assume that they are even if we don't necessarily believe it what were his arguments what did he say in this presentation and most importantly is he right now the first thing bill talks about and establishes is that tighter monetary policy is necessary when inflation is high and the economy is strong he looked at points in the past when the economy was strong inflation was high and titan monetary policy was adopted and he compared those times to today what did he find well he found that at almost every point in history when interest rates have been raised in the u.s inflation was not as bad as it is today and the economy was stronger basically what he did here is perfectly and succinctly explain why under any other federal reserve chairman dating back a hundred years it wouldn't be a question of when will the fed raise rates it would have been a question of how long ago did the fed raise rates on this front it really is incredible to argue against what bill is saying he's right the federal reserve is too dovish and inflation is ridiculously high and yet still interest rates are at zero and this is just utter insanity next bill went on to explain that one of the reasons one of the justifications that the fed have given for not raising rates at this point in time has been fears from the delta variant and the omicron variant that were going to disrupt the economy caused people to cower in their homes in fear of these variants and the economy would suffer as a result now this narrative is actually still present even today in many mainstream media outlets but the evidence to support this idea simply doesn't exist businesses are getting back on with their operations people are getting back on with their lives and the delta variant and the omicron variant as well do not pose a threat to our economies and according to bill this means that the fed should not be able to use the existence of those variants as an excuse to keep the money printer churning and interest rates at zero once again i'm afraid it just isn't really possible to argue against bill here his points are backed by real intrinsic data and it's as clear as it can be i will actually link to the entire presentation in the comments down below for anyone who wants to see all this data first hand because there is just so much of it and it all supports bill's arguments now finally bill pointed to the actions and the statements of countless other incredible investors economists and even financial institutions and the fact that they all recognize that inflation is a serious threat and a hawkish monetary policy is essential to ensuring that inflation doesn't spiral out of control bill pointed out that the bank of england has already started raising interest rates and that the international monetary fund is chastising the fed for refusing to take action once again bill's points are real and irrefutable now i'm not going to sit here and tell you that bill akman is not sitting here once more telling us that hell is coming by all accounts that is exactly what he is doing and he has also positioned himself to profit from the chaos that is surely going to follow but none of this means that he's actually wrong i know it's easy to get wound up frustrated and angry with how he behaved with the pandemic at the fact that he manipulated the media for his own gain i know that it's tempting to just write everything that he says off as some kind of ploy to enrich himself and maybe that's even fair but the points that he's made stand on their own it doesn't matter who makes them it doesn't matter who came up with them or who spreads awareness of them they are backed by data and empirical truths to ignore what is being said simply because of who is saying them is in my opinion foolish to say the least applying pressure onto the fed to act responsibly and in the interest of the people they are meant to serve is a good thing and there have been recent developments to suggest that this sort of pressure applied by people like bill akman is working just a few days ago brainard the federal reserve governor came out and made her position clear that come march interest rates should rise and it's time for the fed to act we saw similar statements coming from the presidents of the fed in philadelphia chicago and richmond jamie dimon the ceo of jpmorgan chase has come out and said that seven rate hikes are going to be necessary in 2022 in order to curb inflation the tide has turned the federal reserve and jerome powell in particular have destroyed their reputation with their hubris their inability to even consider the idea that they might be wrong and they've already brought suffering onto millions of already struggling americans the pressure is here it's arrived and like him or not bill akman is a man that the world listens to when he speaks this is now all conjecture but i believe there's a strong chance that bill has been a very influential person when it comes to federal reserve policy and in this instance i think he's done everyone a favor does this mean that this isn't another hellas coming moment no not at all the similarities are just too similar to write this off as a purely philanthropic venture but make no mistake if bill is right if interest rates do rise then he will make lots of money he will get richer but inflation will also fall pressure on the supply chains around the world will reduce shortages will get fulfilled and life should start heading back to normal once more that's it for the day i'm afraid i'll see you all again tomorrow if you enjoyed this video then leave a like and a comment to bless the youtube algorithm if you want more content like this then check out our patreon and join our community of investors you get access to our discord loads of exclusive content like insight into my portfolio and buying sell alerts for all my own investments there's also a link in the description to masterworks.io a site that allows you to buy fractional shares of art from world famous artists like banksy which can be a great way to diversify your portfolio with non-market correlated assets it's completely free to sign up you don't have to buy anything you don't have to hand over any card information so if that sounds interesting then make sure to check it out there's also a link in the description to block five which will give you up to 250 dollars in free bitcoin when you use it you can also get nine percent interest on stable coins like usdc which is a far higher rate than you'll get from any savings account these days just make sure not to use tether thank you all for watching thanks for the support stay stoic until next time you
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