저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜덤은 Shiller PE와 실질 인플레이션 기반 모델로 볼 때 현재 시장이 대형 버블 구간이며, 기존 버블 사례처럼 고베타 주도주 급락 후 블루칩이 버티는 패턴이 나타날 수 있다고 주장. 인플레이션 재발, 이익률 하락, 실질 기준 미조정 수익률 착시를 근거로 들었음. 부동산(특히 호주·중국 등)도 버블이라 가격 하락 가능성을 언급. 단기 타이밍은 명시하지 않았고 장기적으로 저평가 구간 진입 여지를 시사함.
다듬은 글
if the world were to behave like it has behaved in every other major bubble that's all it would take if you look at uh a 10year smooth DAV PE and a shil you find that uh there's a pretty decent spike in 1929 a much higher Spike than that in 200 and a slightly lower Spike than that now this is the approx approximately the second highest point higher than 2020 and in each case they they back and fill and they go back to to more average level even if you allow for a moderate increase in the normal Schiller Ben inker and I 30 years ago um he he was my assistant time a very good assistant I've always enjoyed having smart people do the heavy lifting and and the project was we know the market doesn't like inflation let's find other things that the market likes or doesn't and let's explain on a coincident basis why the market sells high and low okay and I went on a trip and when I can't came back he tried you know 27 variables etc etc and had a model with a very high correlation and it's stayed that way ever since it turns out the market is a coincident indic of comt what makes the typical portfolio manager feel comfor number one it loves low inflation it hates High inflation it likes 2% stable inflation it does not like to see it bouncing around it doesn't like to see it spike in the worst way and it does not like to see it hanging around for multiple years that's the most important secondly it loves High profit margin what a surprise now what's in third way way down in third place is the stability of growth the growth rate does not have a positive correlation with PE the market is nervous about births of high growth it doesn't like + 9 minus 2 it would rather have plus three + three plus 3 than + 9us 2 it likees certainty stability Comfort Comfort is the best description okay so you look at this model and it says 1929 should not have been a surprise it had low inflation High profit margins wonderful profit margins incidentally and the growth rate was ticking along at a pretty high rate and it was St so Heaven it it the market called the Great Depression everything was bad it got the nifty50 right on the nose it got the idea in the 70s that you'd be seven times earnings because terrible inflation persistent terrible inflation low margins wild economic growth so it 6.8 times earnings was the trough and the model called for almost exact you think we'll ever see that again 6.8 times earnings I don't know but let me just finish this first so then it makes what you might call a major error for the first time in 2000 it says in 2000 wonderful profit margin no inflation you'll have the highest PE that you have ever seen yeah not bad directionally instead of 21 times in 1929 a new peak of 25 times would be and it goes to 35 and that was not explained by anything we could see in history or then it just happened you could argue that that is the only really crazy psychological event up until then in American his okay in in the history of America we got it 18 months later it's back on Trend we got the setback we got the housing bubble right we got the wipe out right and then it brings us to the second major Devi second major deviation starts in the second half of 21 second half of 21 we have a inflation Spike every time we've had an inflation spike in history years have gone down sometimes rapidly this one not this time was a strong inflation Spike bloody PS went up creating a a major Gap where the model goes down and the market goes up and suddenly we've got a big gap then the market says after all I'm not sure I believe the fed and and the beginning of 22 is the worst 6 months since 1939 but the model is still going down because PE inflation is hanging around and uh the model declined so fast forward what does it say today it doesn't like the pattern of stickiness in the inflation it doesn't like the profit margins which in real terms have been coming down quite steadily now for over a year they're down over 15% adjusted for inflation and uh the model calls for 16.8 which in the longterm still pretty high but the actual Market is 29 and on ailla it's 29 this is a pretty handsome Gap and what this says is that is if the market responds to the same forces that it responded to over an entire 100e periods interesting thing is it wasn't different in 2007 in the housing bu it wasn't different in 2009 it's only been different for a couple of years since inflation spiked do we really feel the market is cool about inflation that it will not get a moment of second second thoughts like it had at the beginning of 2022 maybe this is not going to be as neat just back up a few weeks and we reached this kind of honeymoon period once again where every everyone was confident we were going to have a soft Landing now 1929 2000 1974 the nifty50 every one of these we were going to have a soft Landing trust me check the data we were everything was going to work out fine always starts soft it never does if you want to look at the great Bubbles and nothing but what you find is the most interesting distinction is one that is unique to them and nothing else it never happened anywhere any other time and that is the leadership of the Market going up you know 70 80% in a year starts to go down as the Blue Chips continue up now they had the ones going down have a beter of 1.5 they're meant to go up 50% more than the market they can't even get the sign right so in 1929 the S&P was kind enough to have a low priced index was pure junk pure junk had been up 80% Plus in 1928 and it's dropping all the way through 1929 the day before the crash it's down almost 40% before the crash it is the great I like to say Primal screen from the stock market ever up until then nothing like that happens again till 1972 in 1972 the S&P is up 70 the average Big Board stock is down 70 that's not bad I can't tell you the low pric index cuz rats discontinu okay then nothing like that happens again until 2000 in 2000 we know what happened they take out the grow stocks and they go down basically 50% before rally and the rest of the S&P goes up yeah so in September on or around the 30th the p is the same as it was at the peak in March of 2000 in the meantime the gross stocks have gone down nasda gone down huge so the rest of the S&P X the super grow stock has gone up about we calculate 13 14 so they same thing has happened High beta stocks have gone down Blue Chips continue up and it happened this time too only the fourth time in history where going back to 2021 they take out my poor Quantum scape the biggest spec of the entire cycle which we can discuss you you had a private investment and that and you couldn't believe the let's come back to that but in any case starting with quantumscape and quickly going through Kathy Woods portfolio and on through the meme stocks and everything uh there is an ugly an ugly year following my waiting for the last D and and lasted right through the end of December right but that is exactly what it did in the other three bubble in other words if you're predicting a bubble you should be saying and the characteristic of this decline will be this unique odd event where the super Leaders with the highest baers go down as the last gasp of the Blue Chip up they follow you're saying down they come yeah and then the bubble will break and the bubble broke for a while the biggest Speck of the cycle is quantumscape I I invested in Quantum skate nine years we were kind of lured into it by very good advisers who specialize in in green investing and I was so inspired by them that I wanted to make the biggest investment I'd ever made it was so big we decided better not put it in the foundation because it looked imprudent so it was the only thing that was in my name anyway fast forward quite a few years and it comes as a spa which is most unfortunate since I've then gone on record of saying they are so disgusting they should be illegal they are licenses to steal for the organizers who really even to get involved in that have to be marginally ethical shall we say so then I find myself in the uncomfortable position that it supect secondly it's on the market thirdly it is having no trouble explaining that it's still 4 years away from having any sale years from it's a brilliant research lab that finds itself in the market as a spa four years before having a product so what happens it's 10 four times my investment yeah better than a kick in the pan 2 months later it's 131 at 131 it is bigger than the market cap of General Motors it is bigger than Samsung the battery at that point you were richer than Bill Gates and no but I that holding was worth 625 million oh my God I wasn't allowed to get out for 6 months that's right and I was cross my heart and hope to die saying to my troop if I am right about what this Market will turn out to be VC will be a disaster and this is the kind of stock that will sell between $5 and $10 a share 5.1 last December down from 131 and it's so unique that the usual way of trying to hedge would end in tears I got to tell you how it finishes though 6 months later it's 25 it's 25 we sold practically all of it 10 times our money would be worked out okay uh Ramsey Ravenel who runs our foundation we had spent a few sexy hours spending the 500 million that slipped through up I I think the temptation to manipulate these major variables is is overwhelming uh particularly done in the interest of saying the market can go up a l i I have a a long history of of of dealing with this tendency over a few decades and um I get it it's nice to be optimistic and U given half a chance the investment business of course has a commercial imperative absolutely has bullish it doesn't make any sense to be anything else maximizes their return over the full cycle and that's how they do it every time they bullish so you never expect a major investment House Bar I've been here done that terminal paralysis we used to call it everything looks ugly I know how you feel you feel paralyzed it's not that you are deciding to do anything you can't make decisions and what you have to do is overcome that you have to get a battle plan together even a Half Baked one is a lot better than nothing these are cheap prices you haven't seen anything this cheap for 22 years that's a long time yeah it will more or less guarantee that you do pretty well for the next seven years on our data we had double digit on the S&P for seven years this was a far cry from 2 years earlier so put together a plan take it to your committee if you're an institution and and start investing your money and actually however fast you invest it you can't you can't be too aggressive in those situations because even if the market goes down another 25% in the next month it doesn't matter if you've been out of the market you don't need the bottom we're already a hero how do you maintain your hero ship is getting in with a lot just the data the data was obvious we just did what was obvious and just for the record the first time we ever got any publicity was the summer of 1982 which is the only other low that matters that that was the the cycle low for 20 years and the Wall Street letter it was called now defunct but of course I have a copy and early July it it quotes me for the first time and it says uh we're close to an unprecedented rally in both the stock and the bond market and we are 100% invested it it says 80% in equities 20% in longterm 30-year bonds we had specialized products that you know lost money didn't lose money but the asset allocation Group which was half our business we lost half our business Half of Half in a in a real hurry two years and one quarter much faster than I would have guessed and and we lost it in a very ugly way the clients hated it it some of them treated us as if we were trying to lose the money and the and and the reason is there is nothing more irritating than you know you're playing golf with your fellow pension fund guys and they're up 60% and you're up 21 who needs that you know that is pure pain and people think you get sold you get fired if you do bad in a bare Market that is nonsense in a bare Market all the clients freeze and then eventually pick their way through the rubble you get fired in bullmer if you lag a bull market they are active if you lag a bare Market they are paralyzed Envy of the guys who are kicking there yeah is is a big big driver and we lost money so fast that was the the constant chat around town oh GMO have lost their way they're not with the with the new Kool-Aid order of business and uh and no one came back as in nobody so we made the right bets for the right reason and we won and we made a ton of money on a relative basis on the round trip in real life what happened is that I argued for this time is different the four five most danger time is never different and I got into a lot of trouble from Jim Grant who you know no doubt he said I was uh um I had given up my religion an apost right to value and so I wrote in mnti no's letter and we compromised by he invited me to his conference at the end of 2017 and I took the side this time is different leading with basically dude find me something that is not profit margins are different pees are 60% higher than they be for 100 interest rates are lower than we've ever seen they've been going down for 35 years when did that ever happen never basically everything was different what he said I can't remember because it is different and it was different in late 2018 I wrote a paper saying brace yourself for a probable near-term melter I was thinking you know we haven't seen really crazy behavior and it was a head fake but the really crazy behavior was only a little bit further up the road so I was deep into thinking despite what I'm accused of and you can see it in my ctly letters including in their title I was arguing it's different it's more it isn't a bubble yet I debated the topic of we are in a bubble in 2016 I took the no it's not a bubble and uh the other side was yes it was a bubble um so I I I was not looking I was into this time is different The Surge that took place in late 202020 um finally had the characteristics that have been missing for the 10 years this epic 10 years the Mania came out as I have said many times written many times bubbles it's not just about price if you get price and it's boring that is not a peak you've got to see higher prices plus crazy behavior which is unique that you have never seen anything quite that nfts qualify absolutely mem stocks qualify Quantum scape is the biggest scale of any bubble in history there was nothing that scale any individual stock Japan real estate is the mother and father of all bubbles much bigger than their stock market mother and father of all stock bubble their real estate was over 10 times downtown Manhattan and downtown Manhattan was very high priced downtown Tokyo was over 10 times now that's that's the biggest bubble I think in history including the south sea bubble the stock market in Japan went to 65 times state of earning there was some cross owner complexity but it looked like an amazing amazing bubble I think everybody else is guilty of the usual crime of expecting a soft Landing when it never comes but it's always claim believing the FED who has never gotten one of these bubbles right regardless of the fact they have involve several different feds underestimating the time that it takes for some of these things to work through particular ularly real and I'm sympathetic on that one because real estate is a global bubble it has driven house prices provably to multiples of family income all over the world China you know Beijing Shanghai you tell me 15 times 20 times family income Sydney Adelaide Etc Canada the UK London London is now 10 Toronto's worth etc etc no one can afford to buy a house no no young kids coming out can buy a house this is not a stable equ equilibrium furthermore the mortgages have gone from three which explains everything seven which explains nothing and eventually the seven will start to explain quite a bit but how long does it take I mean just think the first reflex is I can't move for God's sake I can't afford to go from 3 to seven so I am going to stay which means no houses are on the market which means for the handful of people who have to move they're actually in a bidding war so real estate has never been about 3mon prediction it works slowly but surely in the end you pay more because you could afford in the end you will pay less because you can't afford house prices will come down in everywhere from Australia mentioned that in Australia it's World War III instantly they are more optimistic than Americans and they hate any idea that they're real are they going to come down down by 10% down by 30 or 30 would be a pretty good guess now let me get on to a quick subdivision that everyone has forgot in the' 70s ' 8s '90s we always stated everything inflation adjust nobody is stating anything inflation adjust for example what earnings anything okay I am short the Russell too right in in in the foundation the foundation is 75% early stage Venture cap and 25% hedging it as best we can credit default swaps in in case this thing really becomes nasty etc etc which we can discuss but a lot of short Russell 2000 what has Russell 2000 done one year it is down 2 years it is down 5 years it is down adjusted for inflation nobody is injust adjusting for inflation the S&P is 15% off its peak at least maybe 16 or 17 because people are not adjusting for inflation we've had quite reasonable inflation in the 20 months since the so they can say oh it's only down 5 or 6% BS and real dollars are the dollars that count
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