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um as we look forward to 2025 I think that the fundamental visibility is much better than it was at the start of 2024 meaning we have a fed that's doish and I'd consider that you know a fed put we have the election behind us which was really a source of angst in 2024 and the incoming president is very Pro equities so I'd call that a trump put that that's a Tailwind we know businesses have been cautious for the last two and a half years because of the combination of the pandemic and the repercussions on the labor force plus the inflation wave plus a Fed that was trying to quash inflation so I think Animal Spirits return so these are the Tailwinds that I are positive for equities in 2025 but the the drawback in our view or the tail the headwinds that emerge is one there's a lot of Promise about potential initiatives in 2025 that I think become uh markets have to reckon with it I think that comes in the second half there is also valuation you know the stock market is more expensive than it was two years ago so uh the markets may be a little less patient if there are any stumbling blocks and the third risk you know in the second half that emerges is that there are things that markets will start to worry about like deficit and the potential ending of the business cycle in 2026 so I think that those are the things that weigh a markets in the second half it's almost like there's all this optimism happening and then it sounds like at some point next year reality is going to set in and the thing that you mentioned there is um you know a lot of optimism around initiatives what kinds of initiatives are you describing there I assume these are Trump policies that the market is expecting will boost the economy in some way yes I think some of the initiatives um have a lot of positive potential others carry with it risk um you know on the things that carry risk is how the economy will be affected by mass deportations if that happens um yeah the notion of tariffs you know tariffs can be an important tool but um tariffs can be very dis disruptive to a global economy um and then there's also Doge the department of government efficiency that I think if if we were in a crisis moment Doge could be extremely effective but at the same time uh you know tackling government spending is something that I think is extremely difficult and fraught with uh visibility risk and I think it poses risks for companies that are big government contractors so that's what we have to watch and then of the the other thing I think that really Bears watching is is Bitcoin because I think there is a lot of policy that's being built around Bitcoin finally being more accepted you know the sandbox changing for Bitcoin to be something that the US government potentially Embraces today the spotlight focuses on Nvidia a behemoth in the technology industry that has once more magnetize the Market's gaze surprisingly this attention isn't due to a groundbreaking gaming console or an announcement about a cuttingedge sci-fi film instead the excitement is rooted in something considerably more exhilarating the delayed release of nvidia's Highs such developments send ripples through the corridors of investor networks weaving a complex tapestry of both eagerness and unease industry observers including Piper Sanders harsh Kumar and Barkley's venu Krishna are zeroed in on this unfolding narrative as Nvidia ostensibly steps into the so-called Tech Penalty Box but true to nvidia's unpredictable nature the company's technical charts could easily View off the expected path thrilling both Skeptics envisioning sharp declines and optimists for seeeing meteoric asense join us as we delve into this gripping stock market narrative that promises both Intrigue and drama welcome back everyone to investra Let's welcome in Tom Lee now fun strats head of research and a CNBC contributor with us as you see at Post 9 welcome it's good to see you great to see let's hit Tech first um should we be surprised at this resurgence um this melt up and it's um maybe caught some people by surprise um I I think investors should realize 2024 has been a year of uh surprising strength the market has avoided so many opportunities for weakness and now we're entering the final weeks of the Year where quite good visibility next year so I I think stocks should finish very strong why do you think money is going to the mega caps now in the manner that it is up 1 and 3/4% today the NASDAQ up almost 4% over a month and able to achieve this Milestone one reason is Mega caps have been leading um so it's sort of what people reach into the Shelf when they risk on but second we know that when interest rates fall uh the mega caps actually are very sensitive to that and I think today was a day where the odds of a December cut increased you know the probabilities are are now solidified and that's actually bullish for Tech because the CPI was you know some would say sticky but it was largely in line is that how you read it the yeah that's right and I think it's allowing the CPI print today allows people to imagine a path to 2% because shelter now is cooling to a level that's in line auto insurance which was at 25% earlier this year year-over year is now down to 13 so the two biggest contributors CPI are in a downshift I don't think the fact that used cars are going up is going to reverse the fed's view I don't think the fed's going to tighten because used car prices are up all right so fed's cutting next week that's your base case yes and then what happens after that all bets are off wait and see what do you think uh I think the fed put remains in Play Because neutral is let's say 2 and a half to 3% we're at 4 five after the December cut so we know the fed's in a cutting cycle I actually think the best case is for the FED to do the fewest number of cuts next year step into the vibrant ever Dynamic Arena of the stock market where nvidia's ongoing saga is the centerpiece of lively discussions during Wall Street Coffee power Wows Nvidia finds itself entangled in the complicated dynamics of its postponed Blackwell AI chips a saga that's captured the imagination and anxiety of the market witness the passionate duel between two entrenched camps the bullish proponents confident and brimming with optimism and their counterparts the bearish critics stewing and apprehension Savvy investors need only cast a glance toward the 20-day and 50-day moving averages to appreciate the unfolding drama nvidia's recent dip benath these pivotal technical thresholds has sparked a whirlwind of speculation and debate visualize the scenario with a dash of humor why did the trader bring a bar of soap to the bank to cleanse his stock options yet in all seriousness while short-term fluctuations May invite correction soon nvidia's enduring upward momentum remains solid supported by its position well above the stalwart 200-day moving averagat means the economy is pretty strong that's right it's strong they don't they're not harming the economy by keeping rates here and the labor market is is holding up and now we have a lot of Firepower for future cuts which support stocks okay you talk about a fed put you also talk about another put and that's a trump put yes he's going to be here tomorrow by the way ringing the opening bell people are excited about that uh down here for sure um but you say that that is a substantial part of your outlook for the new year the Trump put explain uh the Trump put is on the simplest level it is the a white house that is going to measure its success by how the stock market performs but it's also a president that's coming in into a second term but with a lot of EX previous experience so this is a cabinet that has good private sector acceptance and I think very markets friendly overall I I think investors who might have been cautious for the last few years now want to be risk on next year all right so your outlook to me is interesting the way you sort of game out where the S&P he can go because you say we're going to 7,000 by mid year which sounds amazing cuz most targets that I've seen are 7,000 at the top end for the entire year your full year forecast though is 6600 why uh part of it cyclical we're coming off two backtack 20% years and there are five precedents to look at five of the five precedents since 1880 had a weaker second half so I'd say that's the basee case the reason I think markets do better in the first half is that there is going to be a lot of enthusiasm about a new White House some of the headlines that come whether it's uh deregulation Etc and we know there's still a ton of cash and a lot of low leverage on the sidelines that's why stocks can rally and by the way 11% in in a few months we've seen that routinely the last couple of years but in the second half I think markets start to worry about the larger macro rate like the Middle East the potential risks of tariff and executing that and potentially the fact that Doge could be so successful that it could slow the economy you're you're worried about too being too efficient cutting too much and what the impact is going to be refocusing on the weekly Candlestick chart reveals an entirely different narrative contrary to the Daily es and flows the prolonged perspective points towards a decidedly optimistic Outlook ironically the hobbling 20-day average often serves as a Clarion call for Vigilant investors looking for a dip buying window even as the much anticipated Blackwell chips remain on the horizon Nvidia might find itself momentarily tripped up yet far from out of the running the so-called Penalty Box a term coined by Krishna is not so much a confining cage but rather a sanctuary for strategic recalibration before a potentially forceful comeback supporting this forecast are the comforting affirmations of analysts who confidently maintain that demand for VI's technological solutions will not wne in fact they predict a fervent future even with Blackwell's delay prognostications extend nvidia's Revenue enhancing Tailwinds well into 2025 this timeline rather than provoking Panic calls for strategic patience which seasoned investors may find rewarding do think there's still a lot of upside I mean small caps trade at 10 times median forward earnings I mean that's a so you what do you think that should be 12 times what kind what's the what's the opportunity set in your mind well since 1987 small caps traded on a medium PE basis at a premium to the S&P the S&P is at 17 times so I think small caps could in the next couple years outperform by you know more than 100% And what do you think about some of the macro issues that I think create a different level of uncertainty we keep talking about the bond market and what that might be saying what you think has happening with gold you know are the Bond vigilantes going to be this governor on whatever you think is going to happen in Washington uh as James Carville famously said you know uh the bond market is everyone's scared of the bond market so that is something we need to watch but we've had plenty of periods where stocks have risen with bonds rising and I and I kind of agree with 's assessment that it's not be yields have gone up not because of inflation but because there's sort of a change in growth expectations I thought that a sweep was for either party was the death nail for the markets and frightening to all involved and now we're getting a sweep why isn't it more frightening maybe a sweep the other way would have been a little more frightening to some yeah uh I mean I think part of the reason investors are getting somewhat optimistic is that president Trump is entering office again but this time with a lot more knowledge of how to build a you know a cabinet and a team and um so in some ways this would end up being more Market friendly and and I think that's why investors are becoming optimistic I mean I kind of agree with the idea that there are animal spirits growing he'll never be deficit friendly will he I mean he will be deficit friendly he won't be you know if we cut taxes on tips Social Security overtime um remove the salt cap extend the tax cuts if you do all those things that that seems like it it's going to be very difficult to fix the deficit with just changes in taxes and spending but it's probably why Bitcoin is kind of interesting here because uh it's potentially a treasury Reserve asset and you know as if Bitcoin rises in price it actually helps offset the liabilities which is the deficit so you were at 150 I think on bitcoin weren't you but not so that by by the end of this year or I I think six figures is still possible for before the end of the year yeah but and then more next year and the year after yeah I I think because now you know post having and uh now bitcoin's becoming a lot more relevant and I think maybe the regulatory overhang is is diminishing that there's a lot of upside from here yes okay S&P um end of next year Well I uh between now and year end 5 to 10% is probably the base case just because that's the type of Rally post elction and we have a doish fed and you know the normal seasonals is that the right move right now for the FED I think inflation fighting uh war is largely over and you know the real rate is still too high so I agree with fed's view that we need to move towards neutral which you know which is towards 3% so I think it is supportive of markets and uh you know business investment has been constrainted so I think these things are positive yet the proverbial $64,000 Question lingers does the current Nvidia stock down turn signal a prime investment opportunity or does it serve as a cautionary tale urging restraint nvidia's cyclical Journey from Peaks to troughs suggests significant volatility synonymous with both risk and potential reward as speculative excitement mounts over the postponed Blackwell chips and enduring long-term growth indicators reveal themselves nvidia's narrative conspic ously hints at substantial growth prospects for those investors perceptively watching nvidia's Maneuvers now could be the ideal moment for strategic positioning ahead of growth projections transitioning from speculative forecasts to concrete outcomes as Nvidia gears up for its forthcoming upward trajectory the stage invites contemplation are you ready to embrace this opportunity in Tech's evolutionary landscape or will you spectate from a distance a leisurely coffee in hand waiting for the charts to elucidate the next chapter either path chosen the decision and the stage are yours to comman
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