저자: Kevin · 외국인
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4월 2020 이후 처음으로 비주택 소비자신용(자동차·학자금 대출) 월 증감이 마이너스로 전환되어 경기침체 우려가 제기됨. 신용카드 등 리볼빙 신용은 여전히 증가 중이나 2007년 수준으로 높음. 다만 비주택 부채 감소는 금리 부담에 따른 차입 축소 외에, 고금리 시기 주택담보대출(HELOC) 재융자로 자금을 조달해 자동차·주식 등에 쓰는 흐름이 원인일 수 있다고 해석. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 직접적 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here something just happened that has not happened since April of 2020 and honestly if you're investing in the stock market the last thing you want to hear is anything relating back to the depths of the pandemic unless we're talking about stock prices because well stock prices as you know were quite low in April of 2020 but there was a lot of panic here and data looked really bad in April of 2020 because it was before we actually had our stimulus and our bailouts well now we've got actual economic data that's starting to look like April of 2020 at least it's the lowest data that we just got since April of 2020 and it's concerning for a particular breed of stocks and I want to talk about those in this video so keep this in mind about April 2020 and what it's going to mean for specific stocks we're going to talk about that I also do want you to mark on your calendar if you don't mind July 20 25th we are releasing more AI lectures and we are increasing the price of the stock scores the AI and income course the a lot of amazing and excellent content and content here check that out via the links down below or go to meet kevin.com to learn more you could buy now pay later for these as well works out to somewhere around 30 40 bucks a month if you use one of those and you get access unlimited access and lifetime access to all those course member live streams check them out link down below so getting started first we already know some things here right we already know that interest rates are skyrocketing this is the 60 month which is five year I know 60 month has written in a weird way but 60 months is five year five year new car interest rate and as you can see it's well let's just say it's getting uh it's getting a little bit expensive again but it's not a just car loans folks it's also credit card interest which is skyrocketing obviously as the Federal Reserve started raising rates since March of 2022 you would expect this keep March of 2022 in mind because there's going to be another aspect that relates to March of 2022 as well let's keep going with this data first and then try to make some conclusions we just today received this information the change in revolving credit the monthly change and revolving credit and the monthly change came in uh for revolving credit of somewhere around 8.49 so what is revolving Credit First of all and how does that compare to non-revolving credit well the way to think about that is very simply so revolving credit is going to be anything that you can pull out on a regular basis and you pay sort of variable uh payments on so think about it like a credit line or any kind of maybe personal line of credit or even to some extent a business line of credit would be a form of revolver but uh since this is having to do with consumers we're going to get rid of the business line of credit here blocks blocks he locks right we're just going to be focused on these sorts of things so these are going to be credit cards which is a line of credit it's a type of line of credit and personal other personal lines of credit that you can get at a bank or like a sofa personal loan whatever right so those are typically your revolving credit debts and we can see those are continuing at a regular Pace in fact let's go back to that particular chart right here and we can see revolving credit while there's some volatility as you could see in the variations here in the different monthly reads it seems to be relatively consistent people are still borrowing money uh from revolving lines of credit so credit card debt still expanding to some level though nowhere near as high as what we once saw at the beginning around March of 2022 you saw this explosion in credit card financing and that led a lot of people to worry oh my gosh we're about to have a poop show of people borrowing too much you've actually seen that stabilize to more recently normalized levels though if you go historical you're still relatively High you really haven't seen this type of borrowing since over here in about 07 which is also somewhat scary because it means if we're borrowing like we were back in 07 is that an indicator that maybe we're going to Trend back into a 2008 style recession where that borrowing really plummets right so we got to keep an eye on this right now this is still mostly healthy so what would that mean well that would mean maybe your credit card type spending your consumer goods your travel your airfare your etsy's your Amazon you're still getting that kind of spending okay great so what's the surprise then well the surprise is that we actually got a pretty low in total Consumer Credit monthly change this is the total chart here and you can see that blue line just carries a carries this over all the way back to the end of 2020.
you didn't actually have this low of an increase in consumer credit for roughly the last two years and that's a little bit of a surprise so some thing had to tank this chart and what tank this chart was actually this right here non-revolving credit monthly change there it is we have not seen non-revolving change of credit go negative since April of 2020 during the covet era now this is a little weird why would this go so negative all of a sudden we're seeing this massive decline in non-revolving credit what is non-revolving credit well non-revolving credit and all of this credit by the way is not related to household credit that's important that'll be part of our conclusion in just a moment but non-revolving credit has to do with student loans and car loans generally these are going to be things you take out and then you pay a fixed amount for until you've paid it off student loans cars and household but this is Consumer Credit so you actually remove the household so it's just cars and student loans which is really interesting why would we potentially see car debt plummet like this and there are two main arguments or explanations for this but we're going to look a little bit further by providing a little bit more data first and I think with a little bit more data we might be able to find out what's going on before we start coming to conclusions and suggesting that's it the auto market is dead there's some extra pieces we need to pay attention to specifically the difference between non-housing debt and housing debt this gives us a Q4 2022 to q1 2023 set of data so it's a little bit dated but it shows us the trajectory change and what you can see here is you've really had this non-housing debt slow down whereas household debt while it's also slowing down it's not slowing down as much in fact the growth of these two lines I did the math for us the growth in non-housing debt is point four three percent and the growth in housing debt is 0.98 percent which is roughly 2X so in other words you're growing housing debt at roughly twice the rate you are now growing Consumer non-housing Debt now why does that matter so much why would I bring that up well I bring it up to help us understand a potential conclusion because there's going to be a lot of fear uncertainty and doubt around these Consumer Credit figures and there are two realistic explanations here one of them is fuddy one of them is no or less funny what you're going to hear the Bears say is that we are on the way back to 2008.
this is a credit crunch we are finally seeing the impact of higher interest rates affect the consumer because credit card rates as we saw in the beginning and car loans are so high what are people naturally doing they're reducing their borrowing maybe that makes sense maybe that is entirely the explanation and that would be a negative factor for in my opinion your consumer spend categories so these are going to be your consumer discretionaries again you're at Sea your credit card companies your American Express your Airlines like a United Airlines potentially even your travel sectors and hotels your airbnbs whatever maybe we get through the summer boom and then what oops now we're in recession Bloomberg economists still think we're going to be in a recession in Q4 that's how you write now it doesn't feel like we're in a recession a lot of people are thinking we're not going to go into one but this is at least the consensus and potentially an argument that would make sense it's expensive to borrow so let's borrow less there is however one other explanation and I'm not by any means trying to come across as okay let's just look for a potential excuse and you know bull excuse this is actually something that I have seen anecdotally and then I've started looking for data to either confirm or dispute this in English a few weeks ago I was talking to some notaries and they're like we're seeing an explosion in people borrowing money through helocs really helocs okay well what is a HELOC a HELOC is a home equity line of credit so in order to get a home equity line of credit you have to have guess what home equity but let's say this let's say you owe four hundred dollars that's how much you owe and you have a six hundred thousand dollar property maybe that property was worth 620 at the Peak in May of 2022 it's come down to let's say I don't know 560 and uh December of 2022 and it's gone back up to about 600 thanks to super low inventory still have not seen an inventory surge mind you even though rates are at the highest level they've been at this entire tightening cycle like 7.32 for a 30-year fix right now prices have already started trending up again uh from December and January because inventory is so low keep in mind that creates real risks for the real estate market if inventory starts Rising again because that'll give more choice to buyers which could press prices down again and you potentially end up with a sort of nasty looking real estate movement here but ignore the real estate speculation for a moment that's just speculation what does this enable you to do well it enables you to take out homeowner Equity again now people are starting to see stocks rise and there's a potential fomo of wanting to get into stocks as well as spend money on not credit cards or car loans so what do you do you call up your banker and say look I owe about 66 point you know six seven percent on my house right now I want to borrow up to 80 to 90 percent can you give me a line of credit well what is that going to look like well if you get an 80 loan to value loan on 600k you're looking at about 480 000 which means you could pull out eighty thousand dollars of new money that you could just pull out on a line of credit if you go up to 90 you could potentially pull out a hundred sixty thousand dollars so what does this mean you borrow money here and then what do you do then you pay cash for things that homeowners pay cash for what is that solar cars businesses stocks so this way you actually maintain your low interest rate on your original loan and you're only paying higher you know seven to eight percent interest on the new money but now you take that money as a homeowner and you spend it on maybe a new rental property a business stocks cars or solar that would actually lower Consumer non-housing Debt so I actually think a HELOC refinancing boom is potentially causing these Consumer Credit numbers to look really really scary when the reality is we're just using the piggy bank of our homes now if you thought this was interesting and you're like wow I haven't heard anybody talk about this before imagine the kind of things you would learn in my courses on building your wealth make sure to join those before July 25th because we are expecting one of the largest price increases for this year to be on July 25th if you have a question send us an email at staff meet kevin.com we'd love to have you there remember you get lifetime access to the content you get lifetime access to the live streams with me where we can do q a and discussions fundamental analysis real estate entrepreneurship you name it and you get all of the future lectures that we release totally for free so check out these programs as well as my buy sell and alerts for stocks what I do with my personal portfolio what I'm doing when I reallocate uh in terms of my fundamental analysis what am I thinking how am I repositioning with stocks in terms of fundamental analysis and what 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