저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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미국은 과도한 부채와 재정적자, 중앙은행의 통화 증발로 쇠퇴 국면에 들어갈 위험이 크다고 주장. 영국의 몰락 사례를 들며 강대국 쇠퇴 패턴을 강조. 주식시장은 과열 후 약세장이 올 수 있고 경기침체 가능성도 있다고 보나 시점은 불확실. 투자자는 이해하는 분야에 투자하고 손실 후 서두르지 말 것을 조언. 상품과 일부 국가(우즈베키스탄) 등 저평가 자산에 관심을 표명.
다듬은 글
America developed a huge amount of power over the last 100 years it's been longer than 70 years no question about that and America continues to have a lot of power but history shows that when when countries get overextended either economically militarily politically whatever they usually Peak and go into decline I'm not talking my opinion this is a simple historic fact you know 100 years ago Britain was the richest most powerful country in the world there was no number two 50 years later it was bankrupt literally bankrupt the IMF had to bail out what had been the richest most powerful country in the world go back in history it has always been changing and it always will when countries get overextended they usually wind up incline what should we do we we should cut spending with an axe no with a chainsaw you know we we have this gigantic debt and it gets higher every day we should cut spending we should start reducing our debt are we going to do it of course not come on if you ran on a policy in Washington maybe you would get elected but after a short time people would say wa me this is very painful we don't want to do this anymore nobody likes pain even if they know what good for you so no is America going to do it no I mean I wish we would but I I know simple facts America is certainly I mean if you said to most people in America where do you want to go they would say America would where you want to invest they would say America but that's because most people still don't know the facts just as many people did not know the facts about the UK or about other countries that peaked and went into de clim yes no America's great we got great PR great movies great TV Great lots of things uh but that does not mean that beneath the surface there are not serious problems developing I said I have teenage children I don't like it it's a good time to be an old American it is not a good time to be a young American in my point in my point of view we had the longest bull market in American history you know starting in 2009 things were great in the US that's the longest in American history anyway doesn't mean it can't last 40 years but it never has countries always get a when things are good for a while people get overextended they get over confident they think it's new investors come in new investors call their friends and tell them oh I've discovered this new thing called the stock market it's so much fun and you can make money and it's easy it's easy to make money you know and that's always happens at the end of has always has happened it's happening again things get overextended things get expensive and we leave we always have a bare Market this is not the first time this has happened what I said before they should only put their money where they themselves know a lot about where they're putting their money otherwise when things go wrong you don't know what to do and things probably will go wrong again you mentioned the 70s you know we had big inflation in those days and as you point out it's worse now but in 1980 the interest rate on United States government treasury bills was over 21% that's not a typo they had to raise interest rates extreme what would be extremely high now in order to kill inflation interest rates are nothing compared to 21% now so if we're going to solve this problem we're going to have to face a lot of pain do I like it no but I have to deal with facts less than two years ago that the Federal Reserve was saying there's not going to be inflation and then they said oh it's temporary don't worry this is transitory you know these guys don't know what they're doing most Central Bank officials or bureaucrats or academics they don't know how the World Works they just want to preserve their job you said they've raised interest rates sure they have but I repeat they were 21% on treasury bills treasury bills a short-term treasury bills uh last time around so no we're going to have to have a lot of pain before we solve this problem the biggest risk of the federal central banks not just the Federal Reserve the guy in Japan has said you know he will print his word unlimited amounts of money and he does goes to work every day and prints as fast as he can we have a lot of central banks doing things like that there in lies our problem whenever you have a lot of money printing it distorts markets it distorts inflation it distorts interest rates and gigantic Deb you know in 1980 America was a creditor Nation we were still ACC creditor now we're the largest detto nation in the history of the world big things have changed since then but not for the good at least not as far as as as an American which I am no I see what's happening there was no red I mean there was still red China then there was still Soviet Union then lot huge things have changed in the world the problem is it's very rare in history that everybody has known that recession is coming you know this is the most broadcast and most uh forecast recession that I've ever seen in my life and knowing that people most people are usually wrong I would say we're probably not there depends on where you're talking about but for instance China has been closed now China is opening up that's going to Big A give a big boost to the world economy because they are the second largest economy in the world so I would not be surprised if we're if there was not a recession yet I expected certainly to come the third year of a presidential cycle in American history has usually Been a Good Year in the American Stock Market you know and this is the year three coming up and the reason that happened is politicians try to spend a lot of money preparing for year four the next election so they can get reelected so I I would imagine that things are really better than the we we read just because the world doesn't work that way if everybody knows something it's usually wrong the stock market's down what 19 or 20% I've been around long enough to know that 19 or 20% is not very serious W is down 70 or 80% when do you see companies going bankrupt left right and Center so for this is not fun do not get me wrong this is not fun but this certainly not dramatic or even significant in the history of financial markets well unfortunately many people when they're down 50 70% say oh my god I've lost a lot of money now I have to go back and make it back and then they start taking more risk and my answer to them is no you don't have to do act quickly the best thing you can do is to sit and do nothing for a while recover figure out what's going on because if you just rush in when you're emotionally wounded after losing a lot of money you're usually going to make even more mistakes so my best advice to people at that stage is do nothing close the window and just wait recover and then wait until you find something that you know is going to be good do not get emotional I I once had a great great success in the markets of gigantic success and I got very cocky I began to think I was smart I began had to think I knew what I was doing uh I had sold short and I had actually bought puts and made a lot of money so I I covered my puts on the day the market made the bottom and so I said well I'll wait for the market to rally and then I'll sell short and I did and the market red I sold short and but you know three or four months later I was wiped out uh and the reason I was wiped out is because I still did not know a lot about markets I assume that people knew what I knew that most of the companies I shorted went bankrupt in the end but I lost everything first because I did not know enough about markets I did not know about trading I did not know enough how markets reacted and how the public reacted and so I lost everything now I was very depressed don't think this was fun I guess I could have become a priest or killed myself or who knows what but I I didn't all I could do was start over and I did and somehow or another I survived and my best advice to everybody is what I said before if you lose a lot of money don't think you have to jump in and make it up again right away calm down wait recover until you find something that you know will work if you like cars or motorcycles or something and you see a change that you know that you know is going to be successful because you know every day you go on the internet and you look at cars or you read magazines about cars Etc when you see something that you know is going to be successful do some research and make an investment but that's how you become successful you wait until you find something that you understand and you know is going to be successful and then you invest and and if something goes wrong you will know what to do uh if you investing in what you understand and you know and if it something goes right you will know what to do but I know I'm the world's worst Market timer I've learned that in my investing career no matter what I want to invest in I know my timing is going to be bad I have learned to wait after I decide there's something I want to invest in but even then my timing is usually bad I am very bad at Market timing some people are great I've known people who they don't really know a whole lot about what they're investing in but they are fantastic Market timers they are great short-term Traders and if they own something for a week it's a long time but they're so good at it they're so good at short-term Trading and they can be successful I'm terrible I'm horrible at short-term trading so if I've had success in my life it's finding things that are depressed it usually mean they're ignored because if something's ignored it's usually not expensive it's usually depressed and finding change if I can find something that is cheap where there's enormous positive change taking place and I can make an investment I usually am successful in that investment it usually it often takes a while I told you my timing is not very good usually but I have learned to wait and then make an investment and then you know I I am lazy because then if you find Investments like that you can own them for three years 5 years 10 years 15 years those are for me that's a great way to invest but as I said I know people who owning something for three days is long term there are different kinds of investors in the world it's cheapest asset class I know are Commodities I mean bonds are certainly the highest they' been in history property in many places and a bubble go to New Zealand or Korea or places you see bubbles in property in lots of places in many parts of America stocks some stocks have been you know apple and Amazon and tenson and Samsung old stocks were going up all the time so bubbles developed were developing in those the only thing I know they're still cheaper Commodities I mean Silver's down 70% from its all-time high Sugar's down 70% I mean people haven't been rushing out and buying a lot of Commodities in recent years I am not buying them at the moment myself but you're asking about cheap asset classes and some countries I mean usbekistan is very cheap right now I made a few investments in usbekistan recently but it's hard to find stock markets or Bond markets that haven't been overexploited in the last few years that's what a long bull market does people get around to everything eventually
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