저자: Logan · 외국인
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결론: 패시브 투자(인덱스·ETF)의 대량 자금 유입이 시장을 왜곡해 거품 위험이 크며, 과거 거품과 같은 군중 심리 문제라는 주장. [서론·취지] 이전 영상(마이클 버리의 패시브 투자 비관론)에 대한 반론에 답하며, 패시브 투자 거품 논쟁을 객관적으로 짚겠다는 취지. [과거 거품 사례: 서브프라임 MBS/CDO] 2000년대 초 주택시장 호황과 MBS를 안전자산으로 여긴 연기금·헤지펀드의 과도한 투자가 2008년 금융위기로 이어짐. 신용평가사가 실제 위험보다 높은 등급(AAA)을 부여한 것이 문제였다고 설명. 마이클 루이스의 『The Big Short』 일독을 권함. [군중 심리 사례: 암호화폐] 친구들이 도지코인·이더리움을 기본 분석 없이 유행만 보고 매수했다고 언급. 도지코인은 프로그래머가 몇 시간 만에 만든 농담성 코인이며, 비트코인은 중국에 약 65% 집중되고 10년간 80% 이상 폭락이 3차례 있었다고 지적. 약 2주 만에 50% 폭락, 현재 약세장 또는 붕괴 중이라고 진술. [패시브 투자 위험 논지] 패시브 투자가 전체 시장의 50% 이상을 통제하는 것은 역사상 전례가 없다고 주장. 최초 인덱스펀드는 1976년 등장, 주류화는 약 20년, 시장 과반은 최근 5년 정도라 장기 성과 우위를 주장하기엔 역사가 짧다고 설명. 패시브 알고리즘은 기업 펀더멘털과 무관하게 자금 유입·유출 비율대로 매매하므로, 동시 매도 시 변동성이 급증한다고 주장. 2020년 코로나 폭락 때 러셀2000이 6주간 40% 하락한 사례를 제시, 소형주의 거래량이 적어 대형 기술주보다 더 크게 빠졌다고 설명. [결론·맺음말] 본인은 투자 권유나 폭락 예언을 하지 않으며, 군중이 몰리는 자산은 가정을 재점검해야 한다고 주장. 과거 군중 자산은 모두 좋지 않게 끝났으며 이번 경우도 예외가 아니라고 경고.
다듬은 글
hello everyone it's logan and i hope you are well i'm making this video to answer some questions which have been brought to my attention regarding a video i made a couple of weeks ago as you should know from the title this past video was made regarding the risks that widespread indexation and passive investing have added to the markets and why michael bury the famous investor who shorted subprime mortgage-backed securities doesn't see passive investing ending well now since then some common questions and rebuttals to what i talked about have come up so today i will attempt to set aside my preconceived view that index funds are distorting the market and probably in a bubble and i will hopefully be able to step you back to see where not only myself but other notable investors see potential problems coming in the area of passive investing so to get started let's set aside etfs and passive investments look retrospectively at some past bubbles which have burst and how people lost their perspective during these bubbles for simplicity's sake let's go back recently just back to the early 2000s when the housing market was booming more americans were owning homes than ever before and this was celebrated as an encouraging sign of economic growth also mortgage-backed securities were seen as the no-brainer investment for the majority of investors these securities the most common and popular of which became the collateralized debt obligation or cdo were seen as very safe because vast numbers of consumers had never before defaulted on their mortgages at the same time so it was seen as a way of diversifying into an already stable and safe market because of this many pension funds hedge funds institutional investors and retirement accounts bought heavily into these subprime mortgage-backed securities and this eventually distorted the market immensely leading to the great crash of 2008 so we now know how this ended of course eventually due to the investors unending appetite for these mortgage-backed securities the quality of the underlying securities gradually degraded until the ratings became immensely skewed rating agencies such as moody's and standard and poor's were incentivized by competition as well as profits for themselves and they almost always gave ratings on these subprime mortgage-backed securities which were not representative of the risk so they might rate them as aaa the best investment quality and lowest risk when in fact they were far higher risk and complete junk and if you want a good summary of this bubble and want to gain a better understanding of it there are many great resources out there but just understand it and the complexity of it reading michael lewis's book the big short which features michael brewery and several other investors who saw this bubble coming is a great way to understand just how immense of a bubble this eventually became so the question we might wonder now is you know why were people so deceived to buy into this back then why couldn't more people see this coming like michael bury did you know why was it so hard just to read the underlying financial statements behind these cdos which apparently very few people did and bury was one of the only few people who actually read them and you know the answer to this likely lies in the nature of crowd thinking mentality and the herd driven mentality and as you should know from the name of my channel i always try to think for myself when i make investment decisions i ignore the sentiment behind an asset or a stock or whatever it is and i look at the fundamentals and i let that speak to myself before anything else and quite often what i see is either mindless optimism or mindless pessimism in the market or a stock or whatever especially in this age of almost instant connection and the ability for people to think in groups and to form groups of like-minded people so for example look at the bitcoin and crypto mania just a few weeks ago when these tokens were breaking to new all-time highs and going parabolic and they were in the media all over the place you know people began jumping on the bandwagon mindlessly putting the maximum amount they could toward these tokens you know i remember asking people i know who were buying then you know you know why are you purchasing dogecoin or ethereum or whatever and they usually couldn't give any real strong fundamental reasons it always had to do with some you know mindless reason you know all my other friends have told me dogecoin is going to 10 or elon musk just tweeted about bitcoin and tesla accepting bitcoin you know or he tweeted about uh doshkin or whatever and most of these friends of mine didn't even know what these tokens actually were they didn't know if they were actually worth anything they didn't do any analysis they didn't know that dogecoin was created as a joke in a matter of hours by a programmer they didn't know that bitcoin is 65 centralized in china and that it has experienced three crashes of 80 or more since bitcoin was created just 10 years ago you know and what happened to this you know these tokens crashed 50 percent in a matter of two weeks and they're at least in a bear market if not a complete crash it's kind of unclear right now so how does this apply to etfs and index funds you might ask well similar to both of these examples of the subprime mortgage-backed securities bubble as well as the recent frenzy driven buying and crypto tokens i believe michael bury is correct to point out the risks inherent with buying into any herd driven asset and even though there isn't much hype on social media you know or reddit for the s p 500 or the nasdaq i believe that the massive inflows passive investing has received since the great financial crisis has led to another massive distortion of the market this time in virtually all of the stocks which are included in these etfs and i've seen so many comments out there you know on this past video you know well index funds might crash they might correct but they will outperform the market over time and you know i can't state how incorrect this thinking is first of all the degree to which passive investing now controls well over 50 percent of the total market has never been present in modern history or history at all i don't think you know in other words looking back just 10 years ago the control pass of investing had was significantly less you know also passive investing is a new invention as the oldest index fund was created in 1976 that's the oldest etf or index fund with most of the etfs out there being much more recent in the last 20 or 10 years so in other words you can't say passive investing has performed better than active investing over a long period of time as passive investing you know is only a concept was invented 45 years ago and it has only been mainstream for at most 20 years and it has only been the majority of the market for roughly the last five years now passive investing as i have stated before has made it not only possible but very probable for massive volatility spikes to occur which did not happen in a less passive driven market you know the reason for this is the passive algorithm is not dependent on company fundamentals or logical thinking it's a very simple algorithm it's if money flows into this etf by a proportionate amount of the underlying assets and also if money is being withdrawn sell a proportionate amount of the underlying assets that's the entire algorithm right there and the reason why this is such a big issue now is you know what happens if people collectively need to sell at approximately the same time you know well all of a sudden there is a much higher selling volume on these underlying assets than they typically experience and the prices of these underlying assets drop significantly as a result until enough buyers step in as you know the etf price as a result goes through an immensely volatile drop and typically this is only seen on the downside as selling almost always occurs more rapidly and in higher collective volume than buying for example look at the russell 2000 during the covet crash in 2020 this crash was a crash of 40 percent in only six weeks you know why was it significantly higher than the nasdaq's crash during this time you know even though the fundamentals are more sound on these small caps and the answer has nothing to do with the fundamentals or price discovery or anything you know rather these small usually unknown stocks had significantly smaller daily buying and selling volume than these large cap tech companies that everyone knows about and as a result of significantly higher selling volume they dropped you know significantly more than these larger companies which when added together resulted in the russell 2000 dropping much more rapidly so all this being said i'm not trying to paint some dire market crash picture or give any sort of advice in any way i'm only examining the commonality between you know the idea that uh passive investing funds you know you're somehow avoiding risk and past bubbles such as the subprime mortgage backed securities bubble as history has shown when the majority of people are buying anything it's time to step back and question the assumptions behind the underlying asset and you'll never hear somebody like jim cramer or any of the wall street media talk about this either because all they do is play on the emotions of the crowd and if anything they encourage you know the crowd and what it is already doing but i just wanted to warn you those of you willing to listen that just like all prior herd driven assets have not ended well i do not think this is an exception all that being said i hope you enjoyed this video if you did consider subscribing and hitting the like button if you didn't enjoy the video give it a thumbs down and let me know why down in the comments and i hope to see you again
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