저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리는 SEC 조사 이후 트위터 활동을 중단해 최근 시장 견해를 알 수 없으며, 현재로서는 Scion 자산운용의 분기 13F 보고서만 확인 가능하다. 버리의 과거 발언에 따르면 좋은 투자 기회는 대단한 지능이 아니라 사람들이 읽지 않는 보고서를 꾸준히 읽는 인내로 명확히 드러난다. 그는 2016년쯤 서브프라임 모기지가 결국 터질 것이 분명했고, 대출기관의 보고서를 읽는 것만으로 주택시장 공매도 확신을 얻었다고 설명했다. 다만 국채 입찰이 실패하는 시나리오는 정부가 국내 수요(연준, 군인연금, 사회보장기금 등)로 쉽게 숨길 수 있어 기다리기 어렵다고 봤다. 콘트래리언 투자는 대개 비인기적이고 지루하거나 어리석어 보이는 선택이며, 주변의 승인을 받기 어렵다. 진행자는 과거 게임스탑과 베드배스앤비욘드 같은 하락한 소매주를 매수했을 때 약 6개월간 손실을 견뎠고, 이후 예상보다 크게 반등한 경험을 언급했다. 결론적으로 콘트래리언 투자는 외롭고 때로 낙담스러운 게임이지만, 제대로 하면 보상이 크며 자기 견해에 대한 확신과 인내가 필수라는 메시지다. 영상에서 특정 종목(삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 비트코인 등 목록 자산)에 대한 앞으로 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
hello everybody so as many of you know michael bury from the big short is one of the investors who i love to learn more from i take what he says very seriously and it has been great having his voice on twitter over the past year or so but he was just investigated by the sec and he himself either decided to shut down his twitter account or he was forced to so as of now we don't have any real updates from bury regarding his thoughts on the current market except his quarterly 13f filings from scion asset management however in going back and watching some of the talks and interviews he has done and there aren't many of them by the way he's a very kind of a person who keeps to himself a lot it appears that there's a lot to be said uh just about how obvious barry believes great investments can be and during a talk dr berry gave at his alma mater which is vanderbilt he was asked about his contrarian bet against subprime mortgages and how he managed to find it and his answer is very interesting to this question so um i think uh you know it's it's difficult to time that very precisely i think we'll have a warning though i think a smart analyst or i shouldn't say that because i don't even think i'm so smart i was definitely 50th percentile here at vanderbilt no higher um i think if you just pay attention you'll get a warning sign heck you know when i figured out the subprime thing i had to do it off human behavior and and various sources of witchcraft wizardry in the in you know five by earlier six it was apparent in the actual filings that were being made every month and you just had to look at that and it was really easy and so i think you'll you'll see that if you're thinking oh one day a treasury auction will fail and then i'll have you know i don't see that happening because i think we have enough domestic consumers of debt including including the fed but including military pensions whatever social security is there that it's too easy for the government to hide that and i don't know that you can wait for that so in other words it's not as though you have to be the next einstein in order to identify good investments to make and in bury's own words it was obvious as early as 2016 subprime mortgages would eventually blow up and all he really needed to do was read the reports which these lenders were releasing in order to grow enough in his conviction regarding this bet against the housing market so in a way to be a good contrarian investor such as bury you don't need to be extremely intelligent you you likely just need to have the patience to read through these long annual reports that apparently nobody else on the outside of these companies actually read and that's the real beauty and also the drawback to what real contrarian investing is and it is usually a very unconventional and definitely not attractive to most people you won't be enjoying the majority of your time with your friends talking about your investments and having them you know really approve of you you know if anything when people ask you about what you're investing in the answers you give them will probably sound boring at best or pure foolishness at worst and i've definitely been here before with buying into beaten down retail roughly a year ago and i bought into gamestop and bed bath and beyond for reasons of extreme undervaluation at the time and at the time everyone was very bearish on the markets in general and you know to buy into retailers who they saw as you know going bankrupt was pure foolishness so long story short is i had to wait roughly six months before i saw my positions go up any and if anything they were down for a good three or four months in there but when they did begin to go up they went up higher than i ever really thought possible so i i'm just tying this statement from bury in it in you know in that not many people can do contraind investing successfully because of this it's just a very lonely and at times discouraging game to be in and now it clearly is very rewarding at times or it can be if done right but the majority of the time you need to have confidence in your own opinion and stick with it through thick and thin so all that being said if you want to learn more about other constrained investors out there and hearing the latest from what they have said as well as new and different views on the market just consider subscribing to this channel and i hope to see you all again
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