저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 현재 자산 버블은 아직 정점 직전 단계이며, 붕괴 시점은 예측하기 어렵지만 과거 버블의 징후를 보면 가까워졌을 가능성이 있다. 과거 버블 붕괴 직전 공통 징후: 1) 광범위한 투기 확산 - 평소 투자하지 않던 사람들까지 시장에 진입(무수수료 거래앱, 부양금 투자 등). 2) 근거 없는 강세 심리 - 월가와 초보 투자자 모두 맹목적 낙관. 아직 스마트머니가 관망 중이며 붕괴 우려가 많아 정점은 아직 아닐 수 있다고 봄. 3) 밸류에이션·펀더멘털 무시 - 1929년 '영구적 부의 고원' 같은 새 패러다임 주장은 항상 틀렸음. 4) 위험자산의 주류화 - 가치 없는 토큰·코인, 파산 기업 주가 급등(밈주식), 스팩 열풍 등. 그랜섬은 이를 명백한 버블 신호로 봄. 붕괴 직후 징후: - 붕괴 몇 달 전 투기 종목부터 먼저 무너짐(닷컴, 베어스턴스 사례). 최근 퀀텀스케이프, 테슬라 조정을 예시로 듦. - 공포 매도가 짧게 나타났다가 다시 신고가를 향하는 패턴 반복. 1929년 3월 25일 소규모 붕괴 후 은행의 신용 지원으로 일시 진정된 사례 소개. - 실물경제(제조·건설·자동차 판매, 공급망)는 이미 취약하며, 현재 버블 규모는 과거보다 훨씬 크다는 주장. 투자자 시사점: - 워런 버핏의 '탐욕은 적, 공포는 친구' 인용. 버블 후기 과열 국면에서는 위험 관리 필요. - 리스크 감수 수준은 개인에 따라 다르며, 대다수 위대한 투자자들은 현 시장을 매우 큰 버블로 본다고 정리.
다듬은 글
hello everyone what many people are wondering right now is just when this enormous asset bubble we are currently in will pop or what the timeline for that is and this is a very difficult question for anyone to answer because predicting in advance what these sort of events could be like is nearly impossible however this doesn't mean you cannot recognize when the market has almost peaked and the bubble has just started to pop today i will look back at what jeremy grantham has said in past interviews and passed letters he has written regarding past bubbles in order to give you some of the commonalities between them that he sees as to what the warning signs they give before a collapse as well as what common events took place after the crash began now right away a big disclaimer to make is this will by in no means give you the ability to know exactly what day the current bubble will have popped but this will hopefully give you an idea of what to keep an eye out for because as we know from william shakespeare the past is merely prologue meaning history does in fact repeat itself albeit in different forms than previous times but history does repeat itself nevertheless so first off we'll cover commonalities jeremy has identified past bubbles have shown just prior to collapsing and most of these past characteristics are not hard to find today which indicates that we're probably relatively close to when the collapse will occur immediately prior to collapse these past notable bubbles such as the dot-com bubble the crash of 1929 which led to the great depression and the crash of 1969 which is often called the forgotten bear market because kind of like the 2020 crash the market crashed but managed to recover very quickly than previous market crashes so all that being stated here is the most irrelevant characteristics to keep an eye out for prior to when a bubble crashes number one is rampant speculation just prior to all of these major market crashes nearly everyone was in the stock market who could be and the people who had never invested before often jumped in months or years prior to when the crash did occur we've seen this most recently with all of the hype in the last months of the dot-com bubble and this is eerily similar to all of the zero commission trading and trading apps that are going on right now you know millions of people jumping into investing who have not before you know who are using their stimulus money or or who are just laid off or who can't gamble and they're simply going to the stock market as an alternative or you know they've been convinced by their friends or all the fake gurus out there that it's a great way to make a quick few bucks on the side so i can see a lot of rampant speculation right now i think most of you would probably agree with that number two is an extremely bullish sentiment immediately prior to all of these major crashes sentiment both in the wall street media and in the eyes of all these novice investors was extremely bullish and it was always a mindless bullishness meaning that there was no real reasons for this optimism except for the crowd thinking you know really building on itself and just the emotion getting behind it and this is probably the area i would say that there still needs to be some building in before i would call a market top there is still some smart money sitting out on the sidelines right now and there are just a lot of people out there saying that a market crash is imminent so as a contrarian this almost leads me to believe that the crash isn't going to occur just yet but it will likely be when nearly all of these bystanders have jumped into the market and they've really dismissed a lot of these concerns that they've been having and you just don't see near as many of these market crash you know 2021 news articles anymore you know if anything once that occurs i become much more cautious because at that point nobody else can get into the market to continue boosting it you know to all these keeping up all these overvalued asset prices that would just basically mean the end of that ability for the bubble to continue in that way number three is the reality of valuations and fundamentals have always been put off as some old way of thinking we've seen this you know immediately before the crash of 1929 actually about 90 years ago which led to the great depression in that at that time people claimed that they had reached you know a quote-unquote new plateau of perpetual wealth or that the market would keep going up forever and that the old ways of thinking and valuing assets had been proven wrong so the market had permanently shifted to this new state and jeremy grantham points this out in his most recent article of waiting for the last dance you know that in the end every time this perceived shift in paradigm takes place it was proven wrong so it was really unlikely that anything is different this time in value investing as it is commonly called or at least caring more about fundamentals will likely once again become much more relevant after this market crash number four is speculation in risky assets becoming a mainstream and i'm sure we can all think of good examples of this fourth characteristic this is just so prevalent pervasive right now uh whether it be junk cryptocurrencies being boosted to billion dollar market caps or day traders you know boosting the price of bankrupt stocks such as hertz a classic example or with a game stop just being boosted in that you know meteoric rise they just had or people jumping into spacks which have been around for a while but have you know exploded in popularity recently uh this is one of the most relevant areas i see right now you know people have gone for lack of a better word insane there is absolutely no fundamental analysis done in any of these examples and the only real reason why the prices of these tokens and i call them tokens because they are likely worth very little if anything you know is because there is apparently an immensely great supply of foolish people out there right now who will buy these tokens for a higher price than the initial foolish person bought them and of course we know how this ends eventually nobody is willing to bid the price up anymore and everybody wants to cash out and the price collapses charlie munger called out spax as rampant speculation in a recent interview and just another sign that this is in fact a major bubble that is currently underway well i don't participate at all and i think the world would be better off without them i think this kind of crazy speculation in enterprises not even found or picked out yet is a sign of of a an irritating bubble so i've gone through the four major characteristics of what has happened immediately prior to these immense past market crashes and now i'll get on to what jeremy and others have pointed out regarding immediately after these bubbles have begun to crash and after they've topped so in the first several months of the bear market you know looking at past examples we can find several commonalities between almost all of the large crashes that have occurred and those you'll hopefully begin to see many of these characteristics are beginning to pop up right now as well the first characteristics i'll list is uh several months before the major market indices began crashing in the dot com crash several smaller speculative stocks began going under and these had been some of the hottest trending stocks up until that point in time also a great example from the great recession in 2008 can be found in bear stearns which had ex stock price collapse and really bad rumors and news come out about um their management in early 2008 and that was roughly six months before the broader markets tanked in late 2008 due to relatively similar reasons as what tanked bear stearns stock we've seen a lot some of this recently with some of the most trending specs such as quantum scape which is ironically a spec that jeremy grantham has himself is involved with and the company has outright stated uh several months ago that they will be in the development phase of new battery technology for another four years so they won't have any revenue or any earnings for at least another four years and yet it was and is still boosted to mass evaluations but quantum scape has fallen significantly in value from its high point as well as i would i would say the pullback in tesla stock that has been one of the most trending stocks in the last year but we haven't seen a ton of this yet so this would be something to continue waiting for in my opinion now continually this has caused some concern and worry among investors and in the past looking back at the response from the market it has always overlooked these early signs that things aren't going well and sadly this continues to go on as warren buffett has said euphoria is your enemy and fear and caution is your friend when it comes to investing and you know in the late stages of bubbles like this most investors tend to be overcome by euphoria and the last thing a very commonality i'll be pointing out here is there will be short blips of market uncertainty and panic selling before exuberance and euphoria overcome any potential doubt for example during all these past crashes so the 1929 crash the 2000 crash in the 2008 crash there were brief periods of panic before the market resumed you know its march to new all-time highs before the final crash actually happened so i found a good uh wikipedia article on the 1929 crash and just this really describes kind of what has been going on in the the current market for the last year despite the inherent risk of speculation it was widely believed that the stock market would continue to rise forever on march 25th 1929 after the federal reserve warned of excessive speculation a small crash occurred as investors started to sell stocks at a rapid pace exposing the market's shaky foundation two days later banker charles e mitchell announced that his company the national citibank would provide 25 million in credit to stop the market slide mitchell's move brought a temporary halt to the financial crisis and call money declined from 20 to 8 percent however the american economy showed ominous signs of trouble steel production declined construction was sluggish automobile sales were down in consumers or building up high debts because of easy credit uh so similarly to this time the market you know was bailed out at this time you know it was an individual who was able to do it uh not the federal reserve and it only took millions uh back then and not trillions this time uh so that just self shows the magnitude of this current bubble that we're in uh compared with a truly historic past bubble even though the dollar has lost the majority of its purchasing power since then you know it's just it really shows the magnitude of the current crisis that we're going to be facing when this does finally crash also similarly to this time we can see that the real economy of the united states and most countries are extremely beaten down many businesses are barely getting by and supply chains are still in shock or complete shutdown from the extreme supply chain shock that occurred early of last year so this video hopefully has helped you to identify the cyclical nature of markets and especially what characteristics to keep an eye out for and you know as to what you do regarding this information is completely up to you as everyone has different levels of risk they can take but one thing for certain according to i would say most of the great investors of our time is that this is a massive bubble that won't end well for those who are caught in it when it finally does pop so i hope you guys enjoyed this video if you want to hear more i just consider subscribing and i hope to see you again
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