저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Microsoft 발언 이후 TD Cowen 우려 완화. 엔비디아 수요(Blackwell, 빅테크 capex 3250억달러)가 가속 중이며 실적 발표 전 불안은 과장이라는 주장. 미국 정부의 중국 수출 규제 추가 가능성은 리스크로 언급. 다만 Investocracy 측 출연자 Bob Sloan은 공매도 감소와 지지선 기준 실적 후 반등 가능성을 제시.
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I think this note to CNBC from Microsoft is a big deal it's leading cnbc.com right now because it's basically saying what you've said which is TD Cowen kind of scaring everybody over the weekend you know the note was getting passed around and yet Microsoft felt compelled enough to respond to it and say whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa we may move spending around but we're still going to spend 80 billion bucks yeah I mean I thought it was way off base in terms of just the merits of it because the Microsoft does this all the time and they forh outed even on the conference call talking about you know that they're going to be focused more and more on servers and actually less and less when it comes some of the data center build outs I think this is something that there there's more smoke no fire I think that's where they had to come out this was definitely scaring L that's was an a jittering market I think any sell off here this is a name that's way oversold and nothing here in any way makes us nervous the the broader I mean we also hear from Nvidia after the Bell on Wednesday dance so everyone's a little bit on edge um to see whether they I'll use the verb again are showing any signs of being deepsee look I think that's the issue is that you know the nervous isn't out there but it's 15 to one demand the supply for NVIDIA chips I think when Jensen comes out on Wednesday it's going to not just in terms of the beat that we think you know two billion beat but talking about Blackwell demand you saw the ca 325 billion from from from Big Tap cap a that's just going to be more and more I think the tailn for NVIDIA and for this this buildout everyone keeps looking for cracks in the armor but I could tell you we're seeing more things accelerated in the last three months than anything else and that's why we continue to be very bullish on names despite many of the Bears right I mean bears are always going to get everyone nervous and I think Wednesday that those are put to rest all right we'll see we got a couple of days to go and maybe maybe some more AI models will debut between now and then maybe we'll get some more clarity on what's going on with the Microsoft investment pieces Nvidia stands at a pivotal Crossroads with shares only nudging a modest 3% year-to date the company's meteoric rise might just be facing a new gravitational pull why what exactly is shaping this narrative and will nvidia's future be affected positively after beating the earnings expectations once again is NVIDIA worth a buy right now in 2025 all these questions will be answered as we delve deeper into this welcome back everyone to investra people are talking about Nvidia and there's a nice deal this morning with Cisco I think it's actually much more important than people realize Cisco is the first to qualify uh it's going to be a real partnership and that's uh Chuck Robbins working closely with with Jensen but there is an overwhelming sense that this Market keys on Nvidia at a moment when we have no idea what the federal government's going to do to Nvidia so the federal govern do that what does that mean well I mean they might they they literally might just say you know what we're we're going to block Nvidia not just the lowend Nvidia but everything Nvidia you know I had lamb on and I had a a KLA on and they've already taken the big hit they take another hit mat block as in prevent exports of block and say listen you're not going to get anything from the United States they get a huge amount of wait who Nvidia trans Nvidia big export Market China are they going to take it away right but that's the low end chips no I'm saying that maybe the government's how do you know that the government doesn't says no more low ends oh no I don't because if you add a lot of clarify what it is your no no I'm talking about I'm talking about you have a a company that reports and maybe they're not in control of their forecast and the forecast has been very important no but you you spent a lot of time talking about the Biden administration's ruling in the very end of the Biden Administration and how delerious that was to Nvidia and and now you're talking about this is still a possibility well because the bid Administration was quite content with having the lowest in chips go to China maybe this Administration and this issue perhaps led by Peter Navaro says nothing you get nothing Well meantime there's a rers piece today that H20 orders are higher because a lot of these Chinese firms are trying to Leverage The Deep seat model well how about if they they ban H20 we don't know and just to point out H20 is sort of that low low end like instead of the age we're not age 200 so you can kind of figure out where no it's not a tinker toy uh versus a you know caterpillar but it is without a doubt something that is that had passed mustard with the previous administration because it was not really thought to be capable of military meanwhile yesterday about this time we were talking about Microsoft's capex plans uh we do have a piece now where Microsoft says we will Strate we may strategically um adjust our spending in infrastructure right they're sister mother sister mother at this point I I don't know what I listened to nadela did that long podcast course these CEOs now they just sit down for hours with people you've never heard of answering very nice friendly questions it's great you never heard of mean well how about if you were did you did you I didn't know I mean maybe a lot of people knew what's his name you internet presence I don't know no they're very well viewed and watched and listen to well but he was I mean it's actually worth listening to and I tried I did listen to much of it last night but you're right Carl I mean within that there was some and we've you we've already referenced it yesterday Nadella talking about sort of scale and how important that is and it won't be winner take all there are lots of potential winners but also talking a little bit about the idea of overtime scaling back on but just to go back to how I started with this I look Nvidia is a u is the stock that people say uh is the biggest Battleground and there people who think it's dramatically overvalued and I don't get that uh one of the things I've asked them I put the questions to them you you have a thing tomorrow where you actually can ask the CFO some things and uh I don't happens col press but I said look I need to know what kind of you have the biggest you have this concentration of five customers maybe I want the pasti if not Mosaic of what of what Apple has mhm maybe I want billion customers well that's not going to happen as Nvidia releases its fourth quarter earnings on February 26th all eyes are on its forecasted $37.5 billion Revenue this is a significant deceleration from a whopping 265 growth spurt a phenomenon only rivaled by the mighty Amazon which posted a modest 10% growth however nvidia's Allure is in its ability to release Innovative gpus that promise radical performance boosts typically whisked into the market with price tags that could make some hesitano are you worried about tomorrow night or not yes you are I am oh all right I would see I wouldn't have picked that up I am worried because I think if it really turned out to be that hard to make Blackwell and we do know by the way that Blackwell that D's got you know that Dell's got a good relationship and some micro of HP was late but if I'm not I mean I'm kind of look I'm looking at the government I thought the government was off the table well there's that why do you feel like sorry to interrupt why do you feel like it is on the table cu the stories this morning said it was on the table I made it up I had a night Navaro sent you some coded message what what's going on let's just find out enough with your guess work he's going we'll we'll get on the phone with and figure whether tomorrow they're going to no I mean I'm just want to Carl's point you are you're worried you're bringing up the government for the first time in a while in terms of even this idea of banning the lowest end ships in China well I mean look let's understand where's that coming from the they say that they're going to do more okay but what is there to do more they've already restricted almost everything they send them the lowest end ships they obviously still can use those that's it okay and they've restricted and I don't know remember the Biden Administration on the Saturday night before they ended at the 18 countries refering to I'm just saying like I feel confident that Nvidia has a good business model but I don't know whether if the government says listen we're not going to let you sell chips to all the countries that he just did a Charming charm tour to um look you if you're not worried no listen and Carl's point and the story deep seek did manage to do something that is relatively competitive with others with age meaning can a lot with them but you saw the video about Jensen saying that it's really post training and that this is very good yes and what you think what did I think of what the post training video I I think inference is going to be what what it's all about right no train post training and post and INF but I also thought that the they did show you know in terms of reinforcement learning mixture of experts the things that they used at Deep seek which are obviously available to those who also have similar products here and are known is a way to both potentially not use as much compute power and power it doesn't work for human get a lot out of that it doesn't work for humanoid it doesn't work for video it doesn't work for self-driving so now you're speaking in favor of Nvidia and all the reasons why chip sales are going to continue to be quite strong I I am speaking in favor of Nvidia it doesn't mean I'm not worried about the quarter okay look I what what is the government mean when it says it has to crack down more the government was cracking down so severely on these guys that I'm shocked that they have to crack damn work the plot thickens as deep seek R1 emerges claiming to challenge the status quo with a mere $5.6 million development cost this has stirred rumors especially given that nvidia's advanced h800 chips are considered lesser compared to The Cutting Edge Tech usually expected despite this nvidia's customers notably meta aren't hitting the brakes on AI Investments Mark Zuckerberg is set to invest profoundly in this space indicating unwavering trust in nvidia's capabiliti our next guest has been watching the market action around Nvidia let's bring in with his predictions for the earnings tomorrow and the ripple effect potentially Bob Sloan he's a managing partner at S3 Bob it's good to have you so read the tea leaves at least as of now about 24 hours out so I think uh Nvidia encapsulates real conundrum for every investor which is NVIDIA is such a large component of every index and it's bigger than the market cap of I think every single country X Japan so one is thing one are things indexed and correlated and when are they not and I think tomorrow what you're going to see when you look at Short interest and you look at it technically so look at in terms of support and resistance you're going to see that Nvidia has sold off but short interest has come down quite a bit it floats between 280 million shares and 260 million shares it's more towards the support and we think you're going to see a pop tomorrow so with all these moving Parts should investors clamor for NVIDIA stocks shake their heads or watch with Steely discretion despite Market Jitters nvidia's current steadiness and future chip releases suggest a strong potential for sustained growth
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