저자: PeterSchiff·MatthewPiepenburg · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 금은 일일 가격 변동보다 달러·법정화폐의 신뢰 하락(debasement trade)이 구조적 상승 동력이라는 주장이며, 출연자들은 장기적으로 금 20,000달러, 부채 대비 금 비율 기준 30,000달러까지 가능하다고 본다. [핵심 주장] 금 상승은 금이 더 가치 있어져서가 아니라 법정화폐가 희석되기 때문이다. 미국은 적자 운용을 위해 금 가격 상승에 이해관계가 생겼다는 주장이 나온다. 중앙은행의 금 매입이 2024·2025년 상승을 주도했고 2026년 1분기에도 지속됐다(15개월 연속 순매수 언급). [근거 수치] 2000년 이후 금 연평균 성장률 약 11%, 기간의 75%에서 상승. 같은 기간 주요 통화는 약 94% 손실, 연 -10%. 1971년 이후 달러는 금 대비 99%, 원유 대비 96%, 구리 대비 89%, 밀 대비 75~76% 하락. 미국 M2는 코로나 기간 2년간 40%, 이후 30% 추가 증가. 중앙은행 준비금 중 달러 비중은 80%에서 56%로 하락, 금 준비금은 두 배 증가. 외환보유액 중 금 가치가 미 국채를 상회. M2 대비 금 비율은 현재 약 4.6, 1980년대 최저 2.5. 다우/금 비율을 2:1로 보면 금 약 17,500달러 가능. 국가부채 대비 금 비율 기준 약 30,000달러 함의. 1913년 연준 설립 당시 금 20달러, 1971년 이전 35달러에서 현재 약 5,000달러. [금 가격 목표] 장기(수년 내 사이클) 20,000달러, 부채-금 비율 기준 약 30,000달러(Matthew). 다우/금 2:1 기준 17,500달러. 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명확한 예측은 없고 장기 견해 중심. [언급 종목·자산] 금: 상승(장기). 은: 금보다 더 높은 상승 가능성 언급(단기 방향 언급 없음). 미국 달러·법정화폐: 약세(구조적). 다우지수: 50,000 수준이나 금 대비로는 1999~2000년 대비 약 70% 하락 주장. 미국 실질 자산·달러 인플레이션: 2026년 CPI가 2025년보다 높아질 것이라는 Schiff 전망. 비트코인은 10달러에서 10만 달러로 오른 사례로만 언급. [조건·리스크] 단기 금 가격 변동성과 트레이더 심리 충격 가능성 인정. 중국·BRICS의 실물 금 이동, 상하이·런던·뉴욕 시장 간 조작 가능성 언급. 연준의 QE/QT 방향에 따라 유동성 확대 전망. 인플레이션은 구조적이며 일시적이지 않다는 입장. [출연자 전망] Schiff: 인플레이션과 달러 약세 지속, 정책당국이 부채위기를 더 많은 부채로 해결 못 함, 현금 구매력 지속 하락. Piepenburg: 금 사이클 초입, 실물 보유 선호 확대, 장기 인내심 필요.
다듬은 글
You you look at where these ratios have been in the past, what the future price of gold looks like, whether it's with me or Pierre Lassonde or Luke Gromen or Frank Giustra and certainly Egon von Greyerz or even Scott Bessent. It is not at all unusual anymore to say gold will easily get to 20,000 in the next year over the next cycle.
That's not because it's going to get shinier, it's that's because of the debasement trade. That's because actually the US for the first time has a vested interest in a higher gold price to run its deficits. Again, I'm not alone. That is the difference. Think about that over a 50-year period, it's a difference between having $35 and having $5,000.
Mhm. And I think you can see something similar, you know, over the next 10 years. Let's say gold rises to 20,000. Right? You could take $5,000 and bury it in the ground and in 10 years you'd have $5,000 or if you buried the gold, you'd have 20,000, right? You'd be able to buy a lot more. Gold is acting as a signal of deeper stress in the global financial system.
Peter Schiff and Matthew Piepenburg explain that the real story is not simply gold going up, but the paper money losing trust, purchasing power, and credibility. Matthew points to the debasement trade where rising debt, expanding money supply, and weakening confidence in US paper assets are pushing investors and central banks towards gold.
He suggests that gold could reach $20,000 over the next cycle. And even says an implied debt to gold ratio could point towards $30,000 gold in the coming years. Peter Schiff's broader view fits the same warning. Inflation is not disappearing, the dollar is weakening, and the Fed cannot solve a debt crisis with more debt.
As confidence in currencies falls, gold becomes a protective asset. This is why gold's move may still be in the early stages, not the end. Now, we present the clips from their interview. Before we discuss this, please hit the like button, subscribe to the channel, and ring the bell icon. Thank you, and enjoy the video.
It's when you just look at the time zones between New York, London, and then Shanghai. Shanghai gets the last say of the trade, and they get the more physical metals at the end of the day, and then London wakes up the morning to see what Shanghai did with silver or gold. Uh there's more physical metals now moving east and west.
Doesn't mean that I can trust Shanghai or St. Petersburg not to do some tricks with the gold and silver prices, but they have a long-term interest in being a better broker, so to speak, than London or New York if they want to gain more trust among the BRICS and other nations, and many nations are leaving the fold of the west and the G7.
But I think, you know, there will always be manipulation on paper exchanges, and and there will always be tricks and government interests that are more powerful than even the man on the street, or certainly even the man on Wall Street. But when you look at gold, uh we again at Van Greers are completely indifferent to the daily price.
We certainly didn't reach peak gold in 2025. We're in the very first innings because the fundamentals just haven't changed. The central banks is their 15th straight month of gold buying. Gold was up in, you know, 2024 and 2025 predominantly, almost exclusively, because of central bank buying. And that hasn't changed.
The fears, the chaos around the world, none of this has stopped. If anything, what we saw in the Q1 of 26 was a was a fire sale to buy more gold, which is what many of our clients were doing. The central banks are still the major players. You know, gold production is still, you know, it's a limited supply.
It's 3,800 tons last year, and nearly half of that went to central banks. But I think for those who just think us us commodity folks in general, or gold investors in particular, just gloom and doomers or cry wolfers, I I understand that. I I had that same view when I was a risk asset trader in the '90s and early 2000s.
But, let's just think about it. Since 2000, I was trading dot com stocks, you know, on the NASDAQ. Gold is up 15 uh 1,580%. It's compounding annual growth rate since 2000 is 11%, and it's been positive 75% of that time. When you compare that extraordinary number to aggregate currencies since 2000, they've lost 94%.
They have a negative 10% annual growth rate, and those currencies have only been positive 25% of the time in the last two and a half two decades, 25 years. So, look, when you know, since 1971, right after I was born, US dollar versus commodities, the dollar has fallen 99% versus gold, 96% versus oil, 89% versus copper, I think 75 or 76% versus wheat.
So, folks, gold is not rising. Paper money is failing. And, you know, look, these are these are math statements, not gold bug statements. US M2 went up 40% in 2 years during COVID, and then thereafter another 30%. So, you know, the M2 gold price ratios are are just beginning. We've seen nothing yet.
Central bank reserves were 80% dollars and 10% gold years ago. Now, the gold reserves have doubled at central banks, and the and the US dollar's gone from 80% to 56%. So, and even with FX reserves, you know, the FX reserve assets are now greater in gold than they are in US Treasuries. So, we're not making this up.
If you look at the signs and the flows, but gold is more honest and more trusted than the IOUs from Uncle Sam or the G7. And, that's because we've we've blown that trust through decades of over overspending and mouse clicking money to solve the problem and put a band-aid on a knife wound. Um but, the data the data is extraordinarily obvious.
And again, there are many ratios, gold to Dow, gold to S&P, market price of official gold to foreign held US treasuries, gold reserves as a percentage of US debt, blah, blah, blah. We can go on and on at the data and the charts and they're fascinating, but they're boring to most listeners and I understand that, but it's very simple.
Cut through all the fuguazi, fogazi of debt and fog and war and headlines and tariffs and Comex. It's really simple. We're in debt beyond imagination. It's unsustainable. We've debased the currency to buy time, buy votes, and buy temporary prosperity and hand that permanent ruin to the man and woman on the street.
It's absolutely criminal. But that's exactly I key key point, Jeremy. When people look at the gold price and when we were in Vancouver, it was like it was just euphoric. The gold silver was just it was scary. It was it moved too fast. And they were just how can gold be at 5,500? How can silver be over 120 or 100?
This is crazy. This must be a bubble. This is madness. And I understood that. I certainly could understand that sentiment. And but I think what they were missing and what they didn't want to see, the cognitive dissonance was what they didn't want to see is how can paper money, Canadian, Australian, American dollars have gotten this weak because it wasn't that gold and silver were in an irrational bubble.
They were in a bull market because paper money is in a secular bear market thanks to our policy makers. So, and you can get into the again, way too boring M2 versus M0 money supply, does QE really go into the system and the velocity of money, is QE really inflationary? It's a very boring debate. It's important, but it'll your eyes will glaze over on it.
But the bottom line is you you can't expand the Fed balance sheet to 9 trillion, expand credit at the banking system, and bring M2 money supply in without debasing the currency. And you can argue it five ways to Sunday, but we've printed too much money. We've added too much water to the wine of the US dollar and we've debased it.
It's now it it literally got a name the debasement trade officially on Wall Street. But, you know, when M2 money supply expands that dramatically in a period of such a short amount of time, um you know, again, M2 uh to gold price, I think the ratio's around 4.6 now. In the '80s, it was as low as 2.5.
And believe me, I don't care when or how, whether they QT or go right to QE, whatever semantics they want to use, we're going to see more liquidity, more money printing. It's going to continue. So, the ratio of M2 to gold is going to continue to compress, which means the gold price is going to continue to rise only because the money supply is exorbitant.
And uh and frankly fatal in terms of purchasing power for the US dollar or any paper currency. A- And again, that's we can look at the charts, we can do the math and go over the ratios, but I think we all feel it, we all see it. Gold stackers have never thought gold was going to become more shiny, more use for jewelry, or more use for fillings.
They just knew the paper dollar was killing itself. And and even the Chinese with their yuan see it. But as uh what is it, the Chinese Book of War, Art of War, Sun Tzu? When they, you know, when your enemy's shooting yourse- shooting itself in the foot, just let it keep doing it. So, the US is its public debt levels exacerbated by the COVID policies, which were well beyond necessary at certain point, and now exacerbated by war costs and a 1.5 trillion budget for '27, China, which has a paper currency, just sits back and watches the US shoot itself over and over in the foot, the chest, and the elbow.
And they're not going to have a better yuan, but they're going to have more gold in their trade settlements. And they are playing 3D chess while we dial up QE or QT or debate uh the Fed funds rate versus the long end of the curve. They're just watching us do what history has always done, watch nations uh destroy themselves with currency debasement and war.
Look, I think when gold is fairly priced, um um and I think and we didn't have time, but I I see I'm not alone. You you look at where these ratios have been in the past, what the future price of gold looks like, whether it's with me or Pierre Lassonde or Luke Gromen or Frank Giustra and certainly Egon von Greyerz or even Scott Bessent.
It is not at all unusual anymore to say gold will easily get to 20,000 in the next year over the next cycle. That's not because it's going to get shinier, it's that's because of the debasement trade. That's because actually the US for the first time has a vested interest in a higher gold price to run its deficits.
Again, I'm not alone. I completely share that view that we actually, unlike the Volcker era where gold was to the dollar what sun was to vampires, you know, Volcker called it his enemy, but under the Scott Bessent $40 trillion debt regime of America circa 2026, we actually need to revalue our gold. We need to see gold run.
We need to revalue our certificates to push down some of our debt. We don't need to make it a gold backed dollar, but we need to monetize gold desperately. I think that will happen. I also just think the the mean reversions in the markets, I think we'll see the as Pierre Lassonde says, a Dow gold ratio, maybe not one to one, but two to one, and that would put gold at 17,500 very soon, very easily.
That's not extreme anymore. Um again, I think even if you look at the gold ratio to public debt, Ronnie Stoeferle, again, I'm talking Ronnie Stoeferle, Pierre Lassonde, Luke Gromen, myself, we're not quacks, we're not just gold bugs, we're looking at the implied numbers. If we wanted to have the same ratio of gold to public debt, we should have an implied gold price of around 30,000 in the next few years.
That may seem extreme to many, uh but when when when Bitcoin went from $10 to $100,000, no one seemed to mind. It's going to be shocking when they see gold reach these prices. Again, not because gold was in a bubble, but because that's how it's sick and and beaten down and distrusted US IOU's and US paper money and other paper money systems have become.
That is to me very sober long-term play. So, when you look at the short-term moves and the and the mechanizations in in March or any price in gold and silver, I do understand that if you're a trader that can break some hearts. Uh if you're an investor, uh the most important skill you need to have other than an understanding of history and math is basic patience, like a good duck hunter.
The key message is simple. Gold is not rising because it is becoming more valuable overnight. Gold is rising because fiat currencies are being diluted. Matthew explains that since 1971, the dollar has lost significant value relative to hard assets like gold, oil, and copper. He also highlights that central banks are still buying gold aggressively while more physical metal is moving east through markets like Shanghai.
This shows a shift away from western paper pricing systems and toward real physical ownership. Peter Schiff has long argued that inflation, government spending, and central bank policy are weakening the dollar. When debt becomes too large to repay honestly, governments usually choose inflation and currency debasement.
This is the setup behind higher gold prices and possibly much higher silver prices as investors search for real assets. Now, let's get back to the interview. All you have to do is look at you know, where we started. You know, when the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, gold was $20 an ounce. And it was $20 an ounce in 1792 during the first coinage act of the United States.
And it was still $22 an ounce in 1933 when Nixon devalued the dollar and now it cost $35. And then it stayed at $35 until 1971. So for almost 200 years of American history the price of gold was no higher than $35 an ounce. And for most of that history it was $20 an ounce. Now in our fiat monetary system of runaway deficit spending gold's gone from $35 or start from the beginning $20.
It's now almost $5,000 an ounce. So why would that stop? Why why is that trend that's been here uh since 1971 where gold has gone up so much. Why would it stop going up? It's not all of the the forces that drove gold from $35 an ounce to $5,000 an ounce? They're still in play. And you know that's why the Dow is at 50,000.
That's why everything costs so much. It's not that it's inherently more valuable is that the the money that we're using to buy it is that much less valuable. So you need a lot of money. And in fact just go back to the year 1999 2000 when the Dow was 10,000 and people say oh look it's 50,000 now. It's gone up five times.
Yeah, but back then gold was 300. Gold's up more than 10 times. So that tells you that the stock market isn't isn't up the stock market is down. It's down about 70% if you price it in gold. It's only when you price it in that you know fiat money that that that that you get a bigger number. I mean I was just reading an article just today that in many US cities you have to earn over a hundred thousand a year now to be lower middle class.
Lower middle class. I mean, a hundred thousand dollars a year used to be a big number. That would, you know, oh, you're rich if you earn a hundred thousand dollars a year. Now you Now you're barely not poor if you earn a hundred thousand dollars a year. Yeah, well, a lot of people, you know, make the mistake of just thinking the dollar wins by default, that we're the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper.
And, you know, I think there are a lot of currencies that are not quite as dirty as the dollar. I mean, they all, you know, have dirt. Uh the one that's not in the hamper at all is gold, and I don't even look at gold as a currency. I look at gold as money uh rather than a currency. Um but the dollar has a unique position as the reserve currency, and so it's uniquely positioned to lose that.
And so I think that the risks for the dollar far outweigh the risks of other major currencies. And so I think it's very important that people who are holders of dollars, you know, but which would be, you know, you American citizens by and large, they really need to protect themselves. They really need to diversify out of the dollar.
And the best alternative monetary uh equivalent would be gold and silver. You know, so that's what they should do with the dollars they don't need. Their long-term savings could be in gold and silver. Their investments can be in mining stocks and other stocks, but their long-term savings, the dry powder, the money they want to keep can't be in US dollars because you may succeed in keeping your dollars, but you're not going to succeed in keeping your purchasing power.
And that's what's really important. I mean, it doesn't matter how many dollars you have if you can't buy anything with them. What counts is what you can buy with your dollars, not how many you have. And there, I think gold is going to win. You'll buy a lot more with gold. I mean, just think about somebody in 19 71.
If they, you know, buried a stack of dollars in the ground and dug them up today, right? If they put $35 in the ground, you know, what could they buy with $35 relative to what $35 used to buy in 1971? But, if they had put an ounce of gold in the ground and they dug it up today, they got $5,000. You know, they they can buy a lot.
Right? That is the difference. Think about that over a 50-year period, it's a difference between having $35 and having $5,000. Mhm. And I think you can see something similar, you know, over the next 10 years. Let's say gold rises to 20,000. Right? You could take $5,000 and bury it in the ground, and in 10 years, you'd have $5,000.
Or if you buried the gold, you'd have 20,000, right? You'd be able to buy a lot more. Donald Trump is very critical of the Biden economy. And, you know, I mean, yeah, I was critical of it, too, but at least it's not hypocritical of me to be critical of it, but he criticized the Biden economy as the worst economy in the history of America.
And now we have the best economy, and so he credits himself for the greatest economic turnaround in history. But, the main thing he has to point to to evidence how great our economy is, is the stock market. And how much the stock market is up. But, that ignores the fact that the stock market did better under Biden.
It was up under Biden, too. It was just up more. So, if you're going to say that the stock market is the benchmark of how good the economy is, well, then you got to say that Biden's economy was better than Trump's. And in fact, if you if you use GDP, Biden's economy was better than Trump's. Trump last year the GDP grew at 2.1%.
The lowest of the Biden years I think was 2.6 maybe. Biden's last year was 2.9. So, Trump's first year was lower than any year under Biden. Uh the number of jobs created so far since Trump's been president is far below the jobs created you know, by Biden. Not that Biden created that many, but Trump hasn't really created any.
And the numbers have been a disaster. In fact, the number of full-time jobs is lower now than it was when Trump was elected or when it when he took office. So, you know, there's no there's nothing that you could point to that would say that we have a better economy. Yes, inflation as measured by the CPI is lower, but the high inflation under Biden started under Trump.
And the worst inflation under Biden was the first year or two, which was kind of left over from his administration, which got that going. But by the time Biden left office, inflation had come down. Now it's coming back up. In fact, it's higher now. This year is going to be higher. CPI is going to go up more this year than it did in 2024.
So, inflation is on the upswing now, not on the decline. And it's going to keep on rising. I think the worst year for inflation under Trump is going to be his last year. The opposite of what we saw under Biden. Peter Schiff and Matthew Piepenburg are warning that the gold market is reflecting a much bigger monetary reset.
The issue is not just short-term price action, daily volatility, or trader sentiment. The issue is that deficit, currency debasement, and the long-term loss of trust in paper promises. Matthew explains that gold could move towards $20,000 in the next major cycle, while deeper debt-based models may even suggest $30,000 gold in the coming years.
These numbers may sound extreme, but this point is that the financial system itself has become extreme. Gold does not need a bubble to rise dramatically. Peter Schiff view reinforces the message. He sees inflation and dollar weakness as structural, not temporary. If policy makers continue printing, borrowing, and delaying the consequences, the purchasing power of cash continues to fall.
For investors, the takeaway is clear. Gold and silver are not just trades. They are protections against a system built on too much debt and too little discipline. Share your thoughts about hit the like button, subscribe to the channel, and ring the bell icon. Thanks for watching.
Comments 0