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tesla's market valuation has grown 18 times since it was written four years ago let's talk about bubbles but let's do so through the lens of tesla according to jeremy grantham co-founder and chief investment strategist at grantham mayo and van waterloo but first please accept my warmest greetings if this is your first time here at the smart songs academy channel be the first to know when a new video like this released hit the like button subscribe and click the notification bell next to it now if you're ready let's get to the video guzza according to jeremy grantham is clearly a bubble despite the fact that he is the proud owner of a model 3 and believes they are magnificent vehicles teza has done exceptionally well but if you look at the fangs life cycles teza is many times the price to sales ratio that they were at this point in their development and they have been phenomenally successful so tesla is assuming two things first that it will be fantastically successful second that it will be multiples as successful as other facts which are some of the greatest corporations in the history of capitalism if we were to defend banks we can argue that like amazon they constituted a critical fork in the retailing road if you look at companies like facebook and netflix they all symbolize these enormous disruptive shifts and we are grateful to tesla for pioneering electric vehicles as a green company but now in phase two every major automotive manufacturer including mercedes bmw and volkswagen is preparing to go electric that owes a lot to tesla but in phase 2 they will have to contend with some serious competition and living up to the price expectations will be unattainable new technologies are constantly being developed particularly in the field of solid solid-state lithium but tesla a lot of things can go wrong they are a really fast-moving organization that can manage that type of difficulty and will be very valuable the only question is whether it has been discounted for 50 years rather than 5 or 10 years it most likely has the thing about japan's great bubble of 1929 is that no one knows why the bubble burst after all these years with hindsight you can say it crested at the pinnacle of bliss as a result there was no glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel as the market reached its stop everything appeared to be in perfect order and everyone is satisfied as long as it appears to be in perfect order the problem about great bubbles is how strongly people believe that they will never burst and that prices would never fall the housing bubble in america in 2005 and in 2006 was a fantastic bubble in that regard people were going out and buying a second house to rent since house prices never fell indeed ben bernanke stated that the u.s house prices had never fallen but they did as expected but that is a penalty of doing business with the federal reserve there was a huge buy-in in 1929 and articles in the ladies home journal claimed that all you had to do to get rich was buy stocks and hold them the same thing happened with the tech bubble in 2000 the same thing happened in the biggest bubble of them japan in 1989 when the japanese stock market soared to 65 times earnings however there is a greater buy-in this time in u.s history to the belief that prices have never decreased and that all you have to do is buy them implying that when the decline occurs it will be bigger and better than any other time in u.s history yes you can make a lot of money if you can manage going short and getting out of the way when inflation is low and profit margins are strong markets reach their pinnacle it isn't about progress the fed prefers a highly stable gdp they despise it bouncing around because it makes portfolio managers uneasy and our model which dates back to 1925 explains nearly all of the ebb and flow and bull and bear markets until june of last year for the first time since 1925 inflation the most important predictor has been ignored beginning in june of last year yes you have handsome profit margins if you want to explain today's market level every bull market is accompanied by a prosperous economy every bull market has a lot of liquidity but every bull market for this one had a low rate of inflation to explain today's market you must suppose that the rising inflation is completely ignored which is rather astonishing this is the first time we've seen anything like it today we are slightly over eight percent since 1925 and for all i know long before that that would have been adequate in any market it would have been enough to bring the market to a halt but this time we have so much faith in the fed that we believe them when they claim it's only temporary since paul volcker who was amazing the fed hasn't done anything right in my opinion all of the others have aided in the formation of succession of extremely destructive asset bubbles they shook the economy and is extremely disruptive the drop in the nasdaq from 2082 was the drop from 2000 the housing markets returned to trent and below taking the rest of the world down with it as well as all of the problems associated with bad mortgages and a 50 drop in the s p 500 these have a disastrous influence on wealth people are made to feel poor by the fed and they spend less as a result it's the last thing that you want but the fed hasn't learned their lesson to get to 2000 they over printed money in the housing market there was quantitative easing in 2007 they got three or four percent more people to buy homes than had ever owned homes before and the effect was disastrous has defend learned anything definitely not so they enter krovita at this point and of course they had to print money again but did you have to flank this much more money around the world so that it could flow into the stock market and create this meme stocks isn't it crazy how average tripled in one day why did they triple in size because in response to tesla hurts tom brady and others hey guys we're going to buy some electric cars as well avis stated boom it triples in size even when adjusted for the size of the economy this is more dramatic in scope and market cap than anything that happened in 1929 these debtors know your thoughts regarding whether tesla is a bubble or not in the comments section down below and with that today's video comes to a close express your love and support for this video click the like button below if you haven't already also subscribe to the channel and click the notification bell next to it to be the first to know when a new video is released thank you for taking that i know watch and we hope you enjoyed yourself we look forward to seeing you again soon
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