저자: 미상 · 외국인
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영상 결론: 빌 애크먼의 2020년 발언과 2022년 금리 관련 주장은 자기 포지션을 유리하게 만들기 위한 의도가 깔려 있다는 비판적 분석이다. 주요 주장 1: 2020년 3월 18일 CNBC 인터뷰에서 애크먼은 '집에 가라'며 패닉성 발언을 했고, 이후 약 2.7조 달러 수익이 발생했다는 주장(원문 수치 그대로 인용, 실제 수익 규모는 자막 인식 오류 가능성 있음). 주요 주장 2: 애크먼 측이 연준에 테이퍼링 즉시 시행과 금리 인상을 건의했다고 하며, 그가 금리 상승 헤지 포지션을 보유하고 있어 이해충돌이 있다고 비판. 주요 주장 3: 애크먼이 제시한 2022년 전략은 가격결정력(pricing power)을 가진 '초내구성' 기업 보유이며, 피자 배달·치폴레 등을 예로 듦. 주요 주장 4: 힐튼 주식과 관련해 2020년 당시 하락을 예측하는 듯한 발언 후 주식을 매수한 점을 지적. 영상은 '숏 헤지 → 패닉 유발 → 헤지 매도 → 하락한 주식 매수'라는 전략으로 양쪽에서 수익을 낸다고 주장. 근거 수치: 퍼싱스퀘어 2019년 58%, 2020년 71% 수익률 언급. 리스크/조건: 금리 인상이 실제 시장 하락을 초래할 가능성이 있다는 전망. 연준이 경기침체 시 금리를 0으로 되돌릴 것이라는 가정 포함. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음. 힐튼 관련 '전 호텔 업계 소멸' 발언은 2020년 과거 시점의 극단적 비관론. 결론적으로 영상은 애크먼의 발언이 그의 포지션 이익을 위한 의제라는 음모론적 관점을 제시하며, 금융 전문가 발언 전반에 대한 회의적 시각을 촉구한다.
다듬은 글
bill ackman a billionaire hedge fund manager called cnbc in a panic on march 18 2020. what would the president be asking the american people to do he's not saying you know he's not saying to storm the beaches at normandy right he's saying go home go home the market was taken aback by the interview it appeared like ackman was upset weeping over the fact the country and the globe was collapsing right before our eyes but as time has passed we learned some information that caused us to reconsider bill's reasons ackman wasn't sobbing because he was in pain he was in tears because he couldn't believe how much money he had just gained on his putts he made 2.7 billion dollars in profit from a little 27 million dollar investment in putts he acquired weeks before his interview many questioned his motives and integrity for inciting panic while simultaneously betting on the panic bill is in the news again nearly a year later for something similar a forecast if proven correct might mean the demise of the u.s stock market but first if this is your first visit to our smart stocks academy channel let me welcome you and to be notified when a new video like this is released hit the like button subscribe and click the notification bell next to it and with that out of the way let's get back to the video ackman has said the following regarding the federal reserve in a jumble of tweets he claims he spoke to the federal reserve bank of new york to give his thoughts on inflation and fed policies bill and his colleagues believe that the fed should taper immediately and begin rising rates as soon as feasible according to the summary of their presentation now consider this for a moment why would a hedge fund manager who mostly invests in stocks want the feds to start tapering tapering would be the appropriate thing to do but it would also cause a big drop in the stock market of course it would be difficult to imagine a billionaire hedge fund manager doing the right thing by disregarding his interest and implementing a strategy that would ultimately result in severe losses for him and his customers bill tweeted what we all guessed 10 minutes later since we have already reported we have put our money where our mouth is by our hedged exposure to an upward move in rates as we feel that an increase in rates might negatively impact our long only stock portfolio instead that's a beautiful way of saying the fed papers i'll earn a lot of money this puts into doubt the federal reserve's credibility as well why are they meeting with a hedge fund manager who has a financial stake in promoting a particular policy that's like bill belichick explaining to the nfl's top brass why his team should only play at home a ridiculous proposition that in my opinion creates a huge conflict of interest to be fair this plan isn't entirely negative ackman has outlined his approach for the year 2022 it is a bit that will profit no matter how the market performs if you listen to his most recent interview you will see that his method is simple yet successful and it is one that you can use for your own benefit many people question how to protect oneself against the fear of excessive inflation in the comments and here is the answer the emphasis of our strategy is owning these what i call super durable undisruptible companies right people are going to be ordering pizza and having it delivered and they're going to eat it and if for eight dollars you can feed a family of four with it the pizza pie that's a pretty good proposition you get delivered in 28 minutes by smiling person it comes in a box that keeps it warm that's going to continue you know hilton um you know hilton stock was down the most i think of anything we owned when the pandemic was announced we meaningfully increased our position the company in the mid 50s stock today is 140.
so when you own businesses that have very very attractive economic characteristics and they're largely immune not immune on a day-to-day basis but they're protected from interest rates moving up or down or commodity prices moving up or down i think that maybe single most important characteristic today is going to be pricing power you know if the cost of your inputs go up better be able to raise price not lose the customer and that is true for every one of our companies so ackerman is basically saying that owning companies with pricing power is the best way to navigate the markets in the future which basically are businesses that people will use regardless of the circumstances despite rising costs i would agree with bill that people will continue to buy pizza and chipotle consider this the price of your chicken bowl increased by 10 percent would you stop eating it sure you might be upset for a week or two but i believe most people would keep buying but this isn't the whole picture bill is keeping a secret from the public his favored option is almost certainly for the feds to hike rates soon this would cause the markets to plummet including the stocks he mentioned but it would also make him a lot of money on his different interest rate hedges if all went according to plan he'd sell the hedges and use the proceeds to buy the undervalued stocks finally we know that if a recession was imminent the feds would return rates to zero bill would profit from the decline and ultimate rise just as he did with the notorious 2020 short remember when he was screaming on cnbc that hell is coming he was withdrawing his short position and buying up hilton stock in the 50s and we've seen this strategy before this interview which took place on march 18 2020 exemplifies this he exclaims again and over that the hilton stocks is going to nothing but wait till the midway point of the interview it is an incredible clip these men know how to use the media to their advantage now you know take a look at hilton stock we're a major shareholder of hilton hilton is the canary in the coal mine this is an incredibly well capitalized amazing dominant global company that actually doesn't know many hotels it just collects royalties down from like 120 to 50.
okay it's going to zero okay along with every other hotel company in the world you know park hotels and resorts you know stocks down from 33 to 4. this is a spin off from hilton why is it down from 33 to 4 because every hotel is going to be shut down in the country everyone hang on hang on just one second um you say hilton is going to zero i mean again i'm a major shareholder what i'm saying is if we allow this to continue the way we allow it to continue okay every hotel company in the world okay is done okay because no business can survive a period of 18 months without revenue okay and that's stick with me and that's what happens okay when if you operate the way we're operating now okay now let me give you so that's a very very bearish thought okay and i've been super bearish uh but i got bullish okay and the reason why i got bullish and i've been aggressively buying stocks including hilton today okay and i've been buying all the way down uh hilton restaurant brands starbucks you know walk your way through our pro the only stocks i'm not buying are companies were on the board and i'm restricted as a result your suspicions should be confirmed the method is straightforward purchase a short hedge cause a panic sell the short hedge and buy the beaten down stock profiting on both ends this is why ackman's perishing square managed a 58 return in 2019 and a 71 return in 2020 i hope that this video proves that everything you hear in the media from someone who handles other people's money is most likely not their true perspective but rather an agenda-driven push to further their own goals raising interest rates may be the right thing to do but pressuring the federal reserve to do so only after you've established a short position strikes me as a little ridiculous i'd love to know what you think in the comment section below and with that today's video comes to a close to express your love and support for this video click the like button below if you haven't already also don't forget to subscribe to the channel and hit the notification bell next to it to be the first to know when we have another new video thank you for taking the time to watch and i hope you enjoyed it look forward to seeing you on another video
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