저자: 미상 · 외국인
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Bill Ackman의 2021년 말 시장 전망과 포지션을 해설한 영상으로, 시장 붕괴 가능성과 채권 시장 공매도 전략을 다룬다. 결론: 영상은 Ackman이 인플레이션과 연준 완화 종료에 대비해 채권 금리 상승에 베팅했다고 설명하며, 연준이 즉시 긴축을 시작해야 한다는 그의 주장을 전한다. 거시 배경: 코로나 이후 연준이 약 5.1조 달러를 시장에 공급했고, 연준 자산 확대와 제로금리가 주가를 끌어올렸다는 진단. 인플레이션 주장: 소비자물가 상승률이 2020년 11월 1.2%에서 2021년 11월 6.8%로 급등했으며, Ackman은 OER(자가주거비) 산정 오류를 지적하며 실질 인플레이션이 10.1%에 이른다고 주장. 시나리오: 긴축(금리 인상·양적긴축)은 주가 폭락을 부르지만 달러를 지키는 길이고, 금리 동결·추가 발행은 인플레이션 가속과 달러 훼손을 낳아 더 나쁘다고 제시. 채권 시장: 10년물 국채 수익률이 약 1.4%로 인플레이션보다 낮아 채권은 버블이라는 시각. 레이 달리오, 캐시 우드, 워런 버핏 등의 채권 회의론을 인용. Ackman 포지션: 금리 상승에 베팅하는 스와프션(풋옵션 성격)과 신용부도스왑(CDS)을 활용했으며, 자본 대비 1~1.5% 규모의 소액 헤지가 큰 손익으로 확대될 수 있다고 설명. 2008년 및 2020년 팬데믹 때도 유사한 헤지로 이익을 냈다고 언급. 리스크·변수: 중국 경제 둔화, 신규 코로나 변이, 공급망 파급, 지정학·사이버 리스크, 바이든 인프라 법안에 따른 추가 인플레이션 우려 언급. 출연자 개인의 구체적 1~3개월 가격 예측은 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
bill ackman is a well-known investor for a reason he has averaged a return of 16.9 each year since 2004 which is much better than the sb 500's average return of 9.6 over the same period during the pandemic he turned 27 million dollars into 2.6 billion dollars thanks to his expertise which helped him make billions during the 2008 recession ackman made billions on the last two market crashes and is now betting big on something he believes will return even more money despite his lack of popularity hackman's track record shows that all retail investors should listen to what he has to say this video will delve into his new bet on one of the world's largest market crashes but first if this is your first visit to our smart stocks academy channel please accept my warmest greetings hit the like button subscribe and click the notification bell next to it be the first to know when a new video like this is released so if you're ready let's get to the video to obtain big returns bill ackman employs two key tactics the first is to use his cloud to influence businesses in which he has invested practice known as activist investing ackman's second strategy is called short-term speculation which is arguably more profitable this video will concentrate on the second strategy bill ackman is highly astute in how he bets on short-term moves because he is always on the lookout for asymmetric risk typically investors feel that taking one or more risks equals a larger profit but this is simply not the case ackman and other hedge fund managers want asymmetric risk which means minimal risk and great gain hackman recently discovered a gamble with significant asymmetric risk despite the fed's past claims that inflation is just temporary everyone knows that inflation is continuing to rise consumer price growth has accelerated rising from 1.2 percent in november of 2020 to 6.8 in november of 2021 and that is clearly a significant rise and for good cause with zero percent interest and monetary stimulus undefed buys bonds the federal reserve has been resolute about having to print trillions of dollars into the financial system the stock market has risen sharply as a result of the fed's efforts but this will not remain indefinitely the lachman presented a presentation to the federal reserve in late october stating why the fed should begin tapering immediately the eminent market meltdown that would eventually result from a few approaching causes was disclosed in ackman's presentation first and foremost since the outbreak of the pandemic the government has pumped 5.1 trillion dollars into the economy as stimulus 5.1 trillion dollars is 25 of the us gross domestic products which is unprecedented in terms of its repercussions this level of expenditure by the federal reserve can be seen in this graph of the fed's total assets the federal reserve is continuing to buy bonds worth hundreds of billions of dollars which is temporarily preserving the economy rather than solving future economic problems these policies are postponing them this is evident in fed chair jerome powell's response to inflation which he expects to continue into next year stock market does not come crashing down out of nothing there are usually events that build to the point where a market crisis occurs the federal government's actions have left two possibilities both of which have disastrous consequences for the sake of the economy the first step is to hike interest rates and end quantitative easing this of course would very likely cause the stock market crash but it would save the us dollar from further inflation the second alternative is to hold interest rates at zero percent and not taper allowing inflation to accelerate to put in another way the second alternative is to continue printing money this option would be far worse than the first since inflation would continue to ruin the economy while also destroying the us dollar bill lackman advises the feds to take the first option which is to start tapering and hiking rates right away in effect the market has already collapsed all the fed has to do now is to choose the least worst scenario we are going to dance while the music is playing and it is time to turn down the music and settle down according to ackman this was a reference to the film margin call which depicted a possible scenario in which the economy might crash the economy has been thriving and blackman is continuing to dance as the fed keeps interest rates at zero percent but it is time for the feds to stop playing music and allow the economy to write itself ackman is hedging his portfolio with a short position in anticipation of this and this was tweeted by ackman there are a few markets that investors might short to hedge their portfolios but ackman is shorting one in particular the market i'm referring to is the bond market bond yields have fallen to historic lows as the bond market has risen dramatically over the last few decades as some of you may know rising bond prices lower bond rates while falling bond prices raise bond yields because the two variables are inversely related shorting the bond market is a wager that bond yields will rise the yield on a 10-year u.s treasury bond is currently at about 1.4 which is much less than the rate of inflation so why would anyone buy bonds when inflation is almost surely going to be greater than 1.4 percent it would be like putting your own money on fire if you invested in such a thing bonds are in the bubble according to ray dalio kathy wood and warren buffett and i'm sure many others agree because bond yields can't go much lower from here running the bond market is an unbalanced gamble bond yields on the other hand may easily rise significantly to account for the rapidly rising inflation rate this is michael bury's short rate which i'm sure many of you are familiar with because of the film the big short brewery said on twitter brewery is implying that he will enter the bond market which he can do by shorting a bond etf such as the tlt ishare's 20 plus year treasury bond etf however michael bury a high net worth investor may be employing a more complex bond derivative that is not available to normal investors like you and me bill ackman for one is doing just that ackerman is investing in two types of derivatives credit default swaps and puts options which are bond swap options contracts interest rates are divided into two categories floating interest rates which fluctuate with the bond market and fixed interest rates that remain constant regardless of market conditions so options are variants that are bought from the bond lender's perspective owners of swaptions must pay the interest rate to bond holders instead of receiving an interest rate for purchasing a bond a puts option is an agreement to overcome the bond lender and pay the bondholder a fixed interest rate in the event that interest rates rise the owner of the put options would profit from the interest rate differentials the floating interest rate in this case increased to 4 but the owner of the puts options has a contract to pay a fixed rate of 2 as a result the puts option owner would profit from the two percent differential and interest rates this difference would raise the value of the puts option allowing the swaption owner to generate large sums of money with a small investment hackman bought puts options because he stands to make a lot of money if interest rates rise he does not lose a lot of money if interest rates fall or stay the same credit evol swaps are another derivative that bill ackman bought credit default swap is equivalent to purchasing home insurance the owner of a credit default swap must make a little payment on a regular basis let's say 500 per month for the sake of this example a credit default swap protects the borrower's ability to make monthly payments by ensuring the borrower's capacity to pay in the case that the bond defaults the banks would be required to begin making monthly payments on the bond which would be substantially greater than the current monthly payment of 500 dollars for example while this isn't an exact analogy it is comparable to a house catching fire and the bank having to pay an amount as high as 500 000 to repair the house on a 500 monthly payment bill ackman is employing puts options and credit default swaps to profit on bond market disasters worth billions of dollars in the 2008 recession ackman successfully benefited on this now he is doing it again but this time with what's options pre-financial crisis we were concerned about what was going on in the credit market so we built a very large notional short position in credit by purchasing credit default swaps on the bond insurers on fannie mae freddie mac on the banks um and as a result uh you know s p was down 52 percent in i think 0 8 and i think our peak decline was 18 it was just momentary and we finished the year down only a few percent and we're up 40 the next driven by that hedging gain and the redeployment of those proceeds and buying stocks and then last year when we became quite concerned about the pandemic in february we did the same thing uh we are we thought the best way to express this concern and and in a risk minimizing way is to again buy credit defaults put a very large notional position in the fall swap market and then spreads gap very you know widely as uh it became clear that this is going to be a pandemic and then we reversed that position as our portfolio declined in value our stocks went down and our hedge became enormously valuable so the hedge actually on a market market basis mitigated almost our entire market market loss but more importantly uh we were it gave us capital to invest over 2 billion of capital to invest in a market that was down a large amount and most recently you know our biggest kind of black swan fear for the markets earlier this year we became concerned about inflation i thought inflation could lead to higher rates the higher rates could lead to lower values in the equity markets and we built again a very large notional position betting that rates would go higher we did this using swaptions which are sort of an option on an interest rate swap which is a way to express that kind of bet but these the three things i mentioned are they're small you know the capital commitments are one percent one and a half percent of capital you know numbers like this um but they can turn into very very large numbers in the event that the you know sort of outlier event takes place i previously stated that the yearly rate of increase in consumer prices has gone up from 1.2 to 6.8 but this is not always the case i was referring to a rate that was based on the consumer price index or the cpi the consumer price index tracks a weighted basket of items to produce an average price for consumer goods in theory this is excellent however the index data gathering for house prices is very wrong by relying on surveys hackman believes that the owner's equivalent rent or oer is understanding inflation using a more precise trend tracker hackman discovered that the yearly inflation rate should be 10.1 rather than 6.8 this is what ackman said on twitter it's certainly unusual for the oer to record a growth rate of only 3.5 for rent prices this is obviously incorrect and should be corrected with the rent prices for a single family hackman went on to say more in a tweet a 10-point percentage increase in inflation would be alarming to the bond market investors in bonded securities would get a net inflation-adjusted return of negative 8.7 percent per year some may argue that this inflation is only temporary but ackman disagrees he wrote this on twitter as if things couldn't get any much worse congress budgetary policy isn't helping matters joe biden intends to enact an infrastructure bill under the buildback better measure that may be worth two to three trillion dollars for around 10 to 15 percent of the us economy inflation will almost definitely continue to rise in the future as a result of this other market worries mentioned by blackman were slowing chinese economy introduction of new covet variants second order supply chain consequences geopolitical risk and cyber security risks these occurrences may have a negative impact on financial markets in the future but only time will tell you think ackman's prognosis is correct if you are how are you putting together your portfolio and with that today's video comes to an end if you haven't already hit the like button below to show your love and support for this video also don't forget to subscribe to the channel by clicking the subscribe button and turning on the notification bell next to it to be the first to know when a new video is posted thank you for taking the time to watch and we hope you had a great time we hope to see you again soon
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