저자: The Creative Investor · 외국인
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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the channel. In this video, I want to share what Tom Lee said about the stock market today, my thoughts on what is coming next, where the opportunity is in this market, and how you should be viewing this market as of right now. Do me a quick favor: hit the like button and subscribe to the channel.
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This video from Tom Lee today says retail investors will fuel this stock rally by reentering the market after the war panic. That sounds great, but I don't 100% agree, and we'll talk about why in a moment. First, let me play you a clip from Tom Lee. It's only about four minutes long, and you should definitely hear it, especially if you're on the bearish side right now, because you should always seek out a bullish opinion to challenge your own.
Next guest sees more records ahead as one big catalyst may be getting ready to mobilize, which is retail. I thought retail investors were already mobilized. Fundstrat's head of research, Tom Lee, is here. He's a CNBC contributor. It's great to have you here, Tom. What do you see going on?
Well, I think investors got very cautious as the war built up, because many stocks held by retail were getting hit, the software stocks in particular. As those fell, we know there were record inflows into software, and the Mag 7 had been falling too. So investors viewed the start of the war as a time to take risk off the table. That was very different from a year ago, when investors were buying into the tariff flows. Now I think the downside tail risks from the war have been removed. Hedge funds moved early and have been adding risk, and we can confirm that from talking to our clients. Now I think retail investors are beginning to take money off the sidelines and buy stocks.
Maybe this is a psychological or political question. I'm curious whether you have any insight into why they would react differently to the Iran war than to tariffs or anything else politically that has happened. "Buy the dip" has become a well-known catchphrase, so it's surprising that they were going the other way this time?
It is surprising. If someone had asked me in 2026 what retail would do if a war started, I would have assumed they'd buy the dip. But in our surveys with clients, we found that many had policy puzzlement. They didn't really know how big this war could become. Their biggest fear was gasoline spiking and a recession or depression, and a lot of economists warned of that. So it was difficult for investors to trust that the administration knew what it was doing, because so many people were warning about the tail risks.
Is it possible they're right? I was in a store earlier today and the radio was on. I haven't heard the radio in a long time. The DJ was on some popular broad station, saying, "Another check on gasoline prices, and boy, aren't they high?" I thought, that's the first time in a while I've heard gasoline prices discussed outside business news. Is it possible there's actually going to be a bigger impact here, that retail investors know it and the pros are missing it?
Anything is definitely possible. One thing we at Fundstrat have been emphasizing is that even gasoline prices, adjusted for inflation, aren't nearly the burden they were five or ten years ago, or even at the 2008 peak. The war is stimulating the economy, and you can see that in the earnings estimates, the ISM, and even the jobs report. So the state of the consumer is one thing, and how it might sound in a radio commercial or in surveys is another. I do think consumers are in better shape. So I think retail investors will end up chasing this stock rally.
And as they do, you think that will power it higher?
Yes, but for the right fundamental reasons, because earnings estimates are higher. The U.S. relative position has really been strengthened by what supply chain disruptions through this war have exposed. As world investors look for growth, and they worry about growth in general, they're going to buy the U.S. stock market, which is a growth index.
We're going to talk in a moment about international markets, and whether you have to choose. You can do both, but if you had to pick U.S. versus international, is it U.S.? I'd still overweight the U.S., because if you think about where innovation comes from, whether in tech, health care, financial services, or fintech, it's really U.S. companies. There was an argument that U.S. PE should derate, but the war has exposed that the U.S. multiple should be going up.
Really? So we could get both earnings growth and multiple expansion this year?
Yes. This is still going to be a very tricky year, because we have a new Fed chair coming and the market is going to test that Fed chair. But once we get through that subsequent turbulence, we're probably entering an 18-to-24-month period that could be one of the best we've ever seen in our lifetime.
Wow, Tom Lee says once we get through some of the drama in 2026, we're going to see one of the best 12-to-24-month rallies in our entire lifetime. As bad as people want to hate on Tom Lee and say this or that, there is very strong historical precedent for this. He isn't just talking out of his you-know-what on this one, throwing around numbers and predictions. The data suggests he's correct.
Not to mention, the S&P just went up 12 days in a row. Today it broke that winning streak, of course. But look at the four-year presidential cycle composite for the S&P. After the midterms, after we get through the Fed shenanigans, which Tom Lee described as the drama around Kevin Warsh and the market testing the new Fed chair, you're looking at a very strong historical rally. At the same time, we just came off 12 green days in a row, and the velocity of the upside suggests we could be looking at 30-plus percent upside over the next year or so. There's a very strong case to be bullish on this market.
I see a lot of retail investors completely missing the ball right now. They aren't even swinging. They're emotional about this policy or that policy or that tweet from Trump. You need to be identifying areas of opportunity and stocks of opportunity in this market and investing in them right now. This is your time to shine. It's now. It's not tomorrow, and it's not next year. You want to be buying these stocks today.
Again, looking at the headline S&P, I don't think it looks as attractive. I think there's going to be dispersion in this market. Some stocks are going to do really well, and some will do relatively poorly over the next couple of months. I've been very clear that I think technology, consumer cyclicals, financials, and communication services are going to be the big outperformers over the next year or two, and really over the next five to ten years, versus industrials, consumer staples, energy, utilities, and potentially even health care. There could be some opportunities in health care too. I don't want to lump it all into one category, but that is where the opportunity is right now.
If you're a retail investor, understand this: you go from one problem to another. The war with Iran ends, and you're on to the next problem. Wall Street focuses on problems during midterm election years. That's how it is. You can accept that or not, but it's just what happens. If you're a savvy investor and you want to make money in this market, you can profit from exactly this. You're going to have a market that is significantly higher a year from now, and two years from now. As Tom Lee says, one of the strongest markets we've seen in our lifetime could be coming.
Which areas are interesting, and what stocks? I'll give you some: ELF, Lululemon, Nike. Tim Cook is buying Nike stock, which I think is a pretty good indication of value, if I do say so myself. Within software: Zscaler, Rubrik, UiPath. I also like ServiceNow, Salesforce, or Adobe. These stocks will take a little longer to return to their highs, for sure. Wall Street won't be as forgiving, and there will be some nervousness around the user-interface and workflow management platforms. It will take longer for those to prove themselves, but cybersecurity and similar names should come back a bit faster.
Within technology, you have Microsoft, Palantir, and that group of companies, which you haven't been able to buy this cheap in a very long time. Within financials, you have Robinhood. Robinhood has gone up a lot. I wanted to buy some Robinhood, but that one got away from me with the old PDT rule change. Yes, people jumped on that one. SoFi and some of these stocks still look very attractive to me in this kind of market environment, especially if we get downside over the next couple of months. You have plenty of time to go out and buy these stocks, and that looks really attractive. It looks like an easy opportunity, easy money.
On a day-to-day basis this market is pretty unpredictable, but over the next 12 to 24 months it is very predictable what will happen. Almost every data set we can look at says stocks will be higher a year from now than they are today. It won't get any clearer than that. So those are my thoughts. I agree with Tom Lee. It's a midterm election year again, so there will be a lot of worries and concerns. In your head, you shouldn't expect anything good to happen at least until the midterm election is done, and that's November 3rd. Between now and November 3rd, or really over the summer, don't assume stocks will do well. Who cares? It's your time to buy. It's your time to plant seeds for your future fortunes, and I want all of you to be doing that right now.
Obviously, things can happen and evolve in unexpected ways. I will keep you posted and updated on this channel about any changes in the economy and anything else you need to know from that perspective. That's a good reason to hit the subscribe button and like the video. Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.
Finally, as for where we are going to find the stocks I think have three-, five-, or ten-times opportunities over the next two to five years: I'm making high-conviction investments in those stocks. I'm not trading them for a week, a month, or even a year. These are long-term investments I plan to hold for a long time, and I do think we'll do very well. If you want to join, the link is in the description of today's episode. Have a fantastic rest of your day, and I'll see you in the next one.
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