저자: Logan · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리는 역발상 투자 대가로, 펀더멘털은 강하지만 시장이 외면하는 'ick factor' 종목을 선호한다. 버리의 이력: 2000년 Scion Asset Management 설립 후 연 30~50% 수익을 냈고, 2005년 주택시장 버블을 보고 CDS로 하락에 베팅해 'The Big Short'로 유명해졌다. 의대 출신이지만 의사로 근무한 적은 없다. 포트폴리오(2020년 5월 중순 기준 공시): 게임스탑 18%(1,530만 달러), Jack in the Box 12%, Corvo 12%, Facebook 11%, Maxar Technologies 11%, Boeing 10%, Discovery 8%, Michaels 6%, Tailored Brands 3%. 공시 자산은 총 8,500만 달러 수준이며 나머지 약 67%(1억 7,800만 달러)는 미공개다. 단기 콜: Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, Foot Locker, Corvo, Cracker Barrel 등 소비·카지노·외식 관련 단기 베팅으로, 단기 소비 회복을 예상하는 것으로 해석된다. 게임스탑은 차기 콘솔 사이클(PS5, Xbox 차세대) 기대에 베팅한 최대 포지션으로 보인다. 진행자 견해: 버리는 장기 보유형이 아니라 기회 포착 후 빠르게 매도하는 기회주의적 단기 투자자 성향이다. 올해 가을쯤 약세장이 올 것으로 보고 현금을 대기 중이며, 지수 추종 자금이 가격 왜곡을 만든다고 본다. 지수 편입 대형주인 Facebook, Boeing은 장기 보유 대상이 아닐 가능성이 높다는 해석이다. 이 영상은 특정 종목의 매수·매도를 권유하지 않으며, 공시 시점이 2020년 5월로 오래되었다는 점을 유의해야 한다.
다듬은 글
who is Michael burry of the Big Short are his positions the best ones to have right now today I'll discuss Michael buries investing and trading strategies and whether I think his investments right now are the best ones to have so stay tuned hi guys welcome back to the contrarian investor my name is Logan I like to talk about videos and topics of success investing and having your money make money for you so if you like those topics please hit the subscribe and like button down below so Michael burry is really best known for being portrayed in the Big Short which is both a book in a movie the book was originally written by Michael Lewis and the movie was made starring Christian Bale as this character and Michael burry gives very few in her interview so it's easy to miss him and not know who he is but he's had a very different route into Wall Street than most people so in his childhood he lost his left eye at the age of 2 due to cancer and he describes himself as very introverted secluded character throughout school he preferred swimming in high school since it required little social interaction and just performance um and this is an important thing to keep in mind too because this is like this is how he likes to invest he likes investments just based on fundamentals and value rather than you know noise and hype surrounding a particular company he went into medical school and he still maintains his MD title but he's actually never worked as a doctor he had a residency that he didn't find particularly you know encouraging he was labeled as bipolar by the doctors who were teaching him and so he really didn't like that very much he started scion asset management in 2000 and he initially produced immense 30 to 50 percent annual returns by picking undervalued overlooked stocks with an ick factor the ick factor is really important to keep in mind because this is usually what he looks for in a company he for companies that are commonly you know despised by investors and not commonly recommended by say investing investment advisors companies that usually aren't included in index funds or mutual funds these are companies that have high potential for under valuation of their shares just based on these you know outlying factors when the fundamentals are actually very strong and so Michael burg began reading and looking into mortgage-backed securities in 2003 and then he became convinced that the lenders had lost their minds in 2005 so long story short pun intended he bought credit default swaps to bet against housing anyone big for him and his investors he describes this bet as laying on his bed and waiting for the casino to change the game prior to this he was actually mostly stock picking and not shorting so it's also important to recognize that he's not you know usually bearish on markets he's usually looking for unique situations and unique value situations to buy into so he's usually actually not a shorter or you know commonly bearish on the markets and then back in August September and October of last year I saw a lot of YouTube videos slamming him for his disclosure of his recent positions and gamestop tailored brands and other beaten-down retail stocks and so it's important to realize that this is nothing new it's a very typical reaction by other investors to find what he's doing kind of repulsive and just stupid but that's actually wouldn't his investment strategy has been pretty much all along is looking for unique situations and equities with a big factor behind them and you know this is definitely nothing new back in 2006 and 2007 he was heavily ridiculed for shorting the housing market because housing was seen as the most you know stable investment on the planet so you know it just shows that common you know going with the crowd rarely pays off in the end and going against the crowd being a contrarian investor really pays off usually in Michael burry is definitely the epitome of a contrarian investor he only manages 263 million now with sign asset management and he only has three clients so it's a very you know niche kind of asset management that he runs so yeah let's look at his current portfolio now so this was last updated in mid-may so it's important to realize this is that this could have changed since then but his largest position is still gamestop at 18 percent in fifteen point three million and then jack-in-the-box 12 percent 10.5 million Corvo twelve percent ten point two million Facebook 11 percent and 10 million max our technology's 11 percent nine point six million Boeing ten percent nine million Discovery eight percent 6.8 million Michael's the arts and crafts store six percent three point three million and then tailored brands is now three percent two point four million and then he also has short term calls on Las Vegas Sands Wynn Resorts Foot Locker Corvo again and then Cracker Barrel and it's important to realize that this only is a total of 85 million in capital so he still has one hundred and seventy eight million or 67% that is not disclosed so it probably has this either in other investments that he doesn't have to publicly release or just sitting around in cash and his portfolio has changed significantly in the last year so it's safe to assume that these are short to mid-term and he also did this heavily before before he was well known you know for shorting housing so this is nothing new for him to be kind of a traitor or you know short term investor at least you know seeing unique opportunities swooping in buying it very low and then selling it you know even just a few months later so that's nothing unique for him so the calls tell us a lot that he's predicting a spike in consumer consumer behavior in restaurants casinos and retail in the short-term GameStop for the last year has consistently been his top position since August at least so he's betting heavily against the upcoming console cycle and then many of these companies have the ick factor that he likes to talk about Michaels Game Stop is probably the one with the most it factor behind it also Boeing you know with their 737 max they've been you know it company in the last few years Taylor brands is definitely one as well and then a lot of them are just kind of unknown you know not really recommended that much like Corvo jack-in-the-box max our technologies I mean I had never even heard of max are technologies until I looked into this so it just looks for unique situations yeah many of these companies could be temporary equities for him he's tended to be an opportunistic - short - short term investor in stocks so you know with him trimming back on tailored brands a lot recently I wouldn't expect that to really be a particularly long-term investment but I mean maybe he'll keep it for a little while longer Michael's he that'll probably not be a long-term investment yeah Google was a very short-term investment for him back you know probably only lasted about six to eight months that he was in Google but he recently sold that a lot Facebook so I mean Facebook could be a temporary investment I mean gamestop is probably the only one where he's in there for you know a couple of years at this point he's betting heavily on the upcoming console cycle release of the you know PlayStation 5 and the Xbox one so yeah for the long term he probably is like me you know seeing another bearish market setting in for the near future maybe in the fall of this year and so he's saving a lot of capital until then 178 million out of 263 million he's probably just saving it on the sidelines right now and waiting to swoop in and buy a lot of undervalued companies that will crash heavily with another bearish market you know he's also talked a lot about how index funds have really you know led to a mispricing in the market similar to how CEOs did for housing back in 2008 so he's probably not you know bullish completely here on on words you know he's probably bullish on say a company like gamestop that you know really doesn't depend that heavily on index funds but you know a company like Facebook or Boeing or Facebook Boeing especially are gonna be heavily dependent on index funds so I wouldn't imagine that those would be very long-term for him but yeah that's just my personal take on this um yeah it's important to realize that he historically hasn't been actually a very long-term investor kind of like Warren Buffett likes to buy and hold things forever he's kind of the opposite of that he doesn't like to hold on the things forever he takes advantage of opportunities that he sees available but then he'll get out of them as soon as he thinks that you know that's about the extent is how how good it is going to get he'll he'll get out of them then so I hope you enjoyed this video if you liked it yeah please hit the subscribe button and I hope to see you again
Comments 0