저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 성공의 두 요소는 올바른 결정을 아는 것과 그것을 실행할 용기이며, 투자에서는 저축을 분산하고 현금을 피하며 시장 타이밍을 맞추려 하지 말아야 한다. 성공 공식과 교훈: 고통과 성찰이 곧 진보이며, 실수에서 얻은 교훈을 원칙으로 기록해 두면 같은 상황에서 더 나은 결과를 얻을 수 있다. 급진적 개방성과 아이디어 메리토크라시(최고의 반대 의견을 찾아 검증하는 태도)가 중요하다. 저축과 부채: 저축액과 월 지출을 비교해 몇 달을 버틸 수 있는지 계산하고, 저축을 자유와 안정으로 여겨야 한다. 부채는 소비가 아닌 자산 형성이나 강제 저축 효과가 있을 때만 유용하며, 자산 수익률이 부채 비용보다 높아야 한다. 분산 투자: 가장 위험이 낮아 보이는 현금이 인플레이션과 세금 때문에 장기적으로 연 약 2%씩 구매력을 잃어 가장 나쁜 투자가 된다. 국가, 자산군, 통화를 분산하고 금 같은 대안 자산도 일부 고려하라고 권한다. 특정 자산이 크게 잘못될 수 있어 분산이 필수다. 시장 행동: 시장은 군중을 반영하므로 군중의 반대로 행동해야 하며, 사람들이 사려 할 때 팔고 팔려 할 때 사는 역발상이 필요하다. 최근 잘 오른 자산이 더 비싸다는 뜻이므로 좋은 투자가 아니며, 최근 부진한 자산이 저평가일 수 있다. 부는 총량이 거의 일정하므로 한쪽이 오르면 다른 쪽이 내린다는 관점을 가져야 한다. 전망: 개별 투자자가 시장에서 성공하기는 매우 어렵다고 경고하며, 타이밍 매매를 하지 말고 겸손하게 분산하라고 조언한다. 대상 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 전망은 없다.
다듬은 글
pain plus reflection equals progress only two things that you need to do in order to be successful the first is you have to know what the right decisions to make are and then you have to have the courage to make them and most people don't have in their heads the right decision and i think one of the greatest tragedies of man is that they hold on to opinions in their heads that are wrong and they don't go out there and stress test them rather than thinking i'm right i went to thinking how do i know i'm right um and it created this open-mindedness to be able to then go find the smartest people who disagreed with me and to see how they would think about things to route balance my bets better it taught me that the power of radical open-mindedness and an idea meritocracy is such a powerful thing pain plus reflection equals progress right and i began to develop this knee-jerk reaction if i'm pain is a signal that something is wrong that you did something wrong if you make those mistakes and then to take that pain and to calm oneself down and think what would i have done differently in the future so my instincts change i view those experiences now like solving puzzles that'll give me gems the puzzle is what would i do differently in the future so i would get a better result the gem is the principle that i would write down as i learned it so literally by writing down the principle when this one comes along what do i do with it there everything is another one of those like we have a million those and if you start to say when one of those comes along how should i best deal with it and you write down that recipe those are the principles so i found that exercise to be great think about your savings and how much money do you have for savings and the best way to think about that is to think how much money do i spend each month and how much money do i have saved so that i can how many months am i going to be okay without that and to value savings right and and calculate it because savings in that is freedom and security and think about what that is so that's that's the first what how much do i have for that the second thing is how do i save well what should i put my saving in and when thinking about what you should put your saving in realize that the least risk investment that you think from volatility is the least risk investment it which is cash is the worst investment over a period of time and you can judge that by judging the rate of inflation in relationship to the after-tax income you're going to earn so if you have an inflation rate that's two or three percent and you're earning one percent and you have to pay taxes on that one percent or the one or two percent that you're going to get you're gonna get taxed essentially at two percent a year and that's going to be a problem so you have to move into assets that are um other assets that are going to do better over a period of time and when you do that the most important thing i can convey to you is to diversify well because i can guarantee you that one of those assets and you won't be able to pick the right one will be disastrous in your lifetime that you will lose half of that savings if you're in the wrong one and you won't know what the right one is and so pick different countries pick different asset classes and i could probably take too long explaining how you might do that but but so that would be the the second thing to learn first thing is think about how to save be cautious about debt when you're thinking about debt think about is that debt going to help my savings or is it going to produce an income sometimes debt like buying a house or buying an apartment or buying an asset it produces forced savings forced savings is a good thing or if you're taking on debt and you're thinking am i going to have that debt in an asset that asset better produce more income than the asset than the cost of your debt if you're using debt for consumption that's not a good thing to do okay you're giving up that uh that safety so i want so number one is think about how much you save and think about whether that should be and what how you borrow number two make sure that you think about the diversification of that not in cash and number three do the opposite of what your instincts are if you're going to play the game it has to be the opposite of what your instincts in the crowd says because the market reflects the crowd so you want to buy when no one wants to buy and you want to sell when no one wants to sell first of all an investor must understand that they probably will not be able to play the game well they probably will not be able to decide how to move in and out of things um in order to be successful in the markets is more difficult than um getting a gold medal in the olympics uh you wouldn't think about competing in the olympics but everybody thinks they can compete in the markets but there's more money competing it's like a zero-sum game and there's more money doing it and the worst thing you could do is be i think you can time all of these movements um if you could i guarantee you the game is a tough game to title we put hundreds of millions of dollars into the game every year and it's tough um so what the individual investor needs to do is know how to diversify well so the word that i would know how to diversify well and in a balanced way the greatest mistake of all investors is to think that what has done well lately is a better investment rather than more expensive and the greatest and what has done worse lately is the worst investment get me out of it rather than it's cheap and unless you know how to deal with the differences of those which most people don't they're going to be in trouble so understand that wealth total amount of wealth in the world essentially doesn't change very much okay and that one thing goes up another thing goes down and to know how to diversify to diversify it in asset classes to diversify it in countries to diversify it in currencies to know how to diversify that well so that you have wealth diversification is important do not think that cash is a safe investment when you most people think look i just want safety and those bonds aren't given give me an interest rate and so on so where do i get safe cash is a seductive investment because it doesn't have as much volatility but it taxes you and your buying power about two percent a year and so uh and that so cash is almost always the worst investment so you have to think about that you should think a little bit unconventionally do you have a little bit of gold do you have a little bit of um asset in case this monetary system breaks down and money's redefined do you have a little bit of that i can't get into all the different ways that one can diversify well i try to convey those things in my books or my or uh you know on post uh posts on linkedin particularly um but i but i would say diversify well be humble don't market time and be conscious of the dangers of cash
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