저자: StevenJenero · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라 4분기 실적 호조와 2024년 주가 상승을 기대하는 낙관적 시각이 중심인 영상. [테슬라 전반 및 머스크 리스크] 진행자는 테슬라의 4분기 인도량·실적이 역대급일 수 있다고 봄. 일론 머스크의 논란(X 인수, 사이버트럭 공개 행사)은 투자자에게 불확실성 요인으로 언급됨. [미국 EV 시장 전망 - Steven Jenero] 중국·유럽 EV 침투율은 25% 이상, 미국은 2022년 기준 승용차의 약 7.6%. 단기 역풍은 차량 가격과 충전 인프라 불안. 고금리가 EV 판매에 부담이며, 연방 세액공제 7,500달러가 도움이 될 것으로 봄. 정부 NEVI 프로그램 약 75억 달러가 충전 인프라에 기여 예상. 가격 경쟁력이 향후 판매를 좌우. [생산 및 판매 목표] 테슬라는 2023년 180만 대 인도 목표. 4분기 모델Y·모델3 생산을 크게 늘릴 계획이며, 4분기 약 49만 5천 대 생산 계획. 2023년 전체 EV 판매가 210만 대를 넘을 수 있다는 전망. [중국 시장] 중국 보험 등록 대수가 4분기 들어 증가, 4분기 누적 약 10만 4천 5백 대로 전분기 대비 3% 이상 증가. 리뉴얼된 모델3 인도가 긍정 요인. [사이버트럭 및 FSD] 사이버트럭은 픽업 수요를 자극할 핵심 촉매로 평가. FSD는 독점 데이터 기반 경쟁 우위, 중국 내 FSD 도입 준비 진행 중이라는 주장. [애널리스트 의견] Trip Chow(Global Equities Research)는 4분기를 '글로벌 블록버스터' 분기로 전망, 목표가 350달러, 비중확대(overweight) 의견 유지. 3분기는 평범했으나 양의 잉여현금흐름 기록. [출연자 결론] 4분기 역대급 실적은 확실하지 않으나 여러 지표가 긍정적이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
if you were to take a wild guess on Tesla's Q4 deliveries and earnings report what would your prediction be for the automaker think about all of the other interesting things that Tesla's been able to pull off in this quarter can we expect it to be another record-breaking one join us as we find the answers to these critical questions for the next year and a half then it starts to become profitable but that is the near-term pain for long-term game that they need to do in what continues to be this green Title Wave you know to John's point when he's saying people just want a Tesla I wonder how much that's people wanting to ride Elon musk's wave and how much that was really the feeling a number of years ago how much some of the recent high-profile discussion around Elon Musk with X with his colorful interview and and commentary toward advertisers does that draw people in or push them away I think there's still a question there because to some it emboldens them in terms of musk what he represent he's the ant di that that's you know I I affiliate you know with the Tesla but then on the other hand you alienate and the problem for I think Tesla investors when you sell consumer products to the masses you don't want controversy but again musk is musk goes the beat of a Different Drum and you see and that's you know we saw that maybe overshadow a bit in terms of what happened at the New York Times event uh the Cyber truck unveiling that's four years in the making but at the end of the day must will continue to I think innovate and and especially when it comes cyber truck a historical moment what did you think about what happened this week I think it's one where it's the last thing you want to see as a Tesla bull to see something like that come and ultimately overshadow what was going to be cybertruck but as we all know musk is musk and it goes back to what we've talked about a lot in the show when he bought Twitter the $44 billion mistake in my opinion which now let's say x is worth 5 to 8 billion this is always the worry it just adds that tornado Factor because with musk if you give them a mic you never know what's going to happen sure imagine a world where electric vehicles are not only affordable but Superior to their gas gzl counterparts where clean energy is abundant accessible and reliable and a world where Innovation and stability go hand inand of course this does sound a bit too good to be true but definitely not for Tesla Tesla has revolutionized the automotive industry and we think that its Q4 is going to be mind-blowing today we're going to take a look at how Tesla will achieve record-breaking sales profits and deliveries in Q4 despite the challenges of the pandemic the chip shortage and fierce competition and we'll explore what lies ahead for Tesla and why it is played to dominate the future of Mobility energy and Technology bookle love and get ready for a ride that will change the way you see the world we're joined Now by Steven jenero Steel managing director so Stephen thank you so much for joining us maybe um just start there with the bigger picture Stephen because you know you look at at least in North America there's these signs that maybe consumer demand for EVS waning a bit we you know you see these companies Stephen they're cutting prices they're uh pushing back these billion dollars in EV related Investments I just be interested to get your take at least here in North America again the US particularly how do you see the EV EV market right now yeah thanks for having me so I as you mentioned I mean adoption of E in China and Europe is north of 25% last year the US sold about 7.6% of passenger vehicles were electric and clearly there are there are some short-term headwinds right so you even if you take out you know the interest rate concerns and and the expense that that creates for the consumer you know the two biggest items on the EV side right it's vehicle costs that that's one right and that's tied into interest rates but just clearly vehicle costs are higher and then second is is is range anxiety slash charging infrastructure awareness so those are are clearly the biggest headwinds we believe a you know on the one hand an increase in model availability uh from both startup EV manufacturers and Legacy oems will help you'll start to see the technology that was designed for some of the high-end Vehicles filter down into vehicles that are at price points that more Americans can afford uh and then second on the charging side I mean the government is just starting a plan spend about 7.5 billion dollar on on the on the nevi funding the national electric vehicle infrastructure funding which should help on the charging front right this is this is an evolution this isn't going to happen overnight and clearly you know you've seen some short-term headwinds but there are several factors that are popping up over the next couple years which I think start to ease the road for Ev adoption and and just to drw down on one issue in particular Steve I'm just interested to get your take on you know interest rates because I remember Elon Musk on that last Tesla call he called out higher rates you know talked about that specifically that was a challenge for his business so as you look ahead you know and look at the interest rate environment you know what does that mean for EVS in 24 in terms of just pricing sales yeah it's a problem but I actually just bought a car right you start looking at 7 eight% rates instead of zero a couple years back it it is a big problem but so there's a couple things right one is clearly uh prices uh have come under pressure a bit right you you've seen and you mentioned what the Tesla's approach to that right the second is you know there is $7,500 of of federal uh government incentives uh in in tax credits that are coming back to the consumer uh that helps and there's obviously some price points involved and and who's eligible but but that helps uh on the cost side and then third and and this does tie into overall you know vehicle prices that is going to help as you start to see more uh moderately priced Vehicles available I mean it's interesting just from personal experience I mean just going down to the local Ford dealership as an example you know a year ago they were selling these the machis over list and then they were selling them out list a couple months back and now they're they're calling Consumers trying to trying to discount them and get them in the market so it it is a problem in the high interest rate environment and that's clearly why we've seen a lot of negative sentiment recently around EV sales uh but but I think the the pricing ultimately is what's going to drive sales going forward and and then obviously we'll watch what interest rates do next year Tesla is looking to meet a goal of delivering 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 in Q3 it was reported that the automaker plan to significantly increase its Global output of model y 3s in the fourth quarter as well as in 2023 and Tesla's new factories in Texas and Germany are said to be ramping up the production more specifically Tesla is planning to produce nearly 495,000 units of model Y in three vehicles in the fourth quarter of this year and now both models are its two bestselling Vehicles accounting for 95% of the ultimaker's total output hey guys welcome back to Tesla tomorrow according to Tesla's production plans its vehicle output is expected to increased by more than 50% about 10 times the increase of the global car market Tesla itself estimated that the combined output of model wi 3s is going to reach 1.59 million units in the first 3 quarters of 2023 if that goal is achieved then Tesla's sales of EVS throughout 2023 will likely overtake 2.1 million units it is worth mentioning that if Tesla succeeds in selling 2.1 million units of EVS in 2023 it sales will surpass that of Volkswagen's Audi brand and be close to that of BMW which sold 2.5 million units of cars in 2021 imagine how big this could be for Tesla this achievement could push the automaker further into the Limelight before we carry on though esla's got some interesting plans for the Chinese market the automaker's vehicle insurance registrations in China have began to pick up putting Tesla as the best ever quarterly deliveries in the evv market particularly as its targets are recording full year delivery goals reached according to recent data Tesla Insurance registrations in China totaled 17,600 in one week up 5 .4% from 16,700 the week prior and interestingly these numbers represent the fifth full week since Tesla began delivering its revamp model 3 in China so far in Q4 Tesla China Insurance registrations are a rough gauge for vehicle deliveries and they total 10 14,500 for the quarter up more than 3% compared to the same point in Q3 the number of Chinese registrations through Q4 is also 10% higher than the same point in Q2 when Tesla delivered a record growing demand for electric pickup trucks in the market with its impressive specs and versatility the cybertruck aims to cater to a wide range of consumer needs and this will be the biggest Catalyst for its growth which is why we think this vehicle will have a positive impact on Tesla's Q4 numbers likewise FSD is also gradually becoming a big thing and it will change Tesla's story forever as many know connectivity has been a flagship feature of Tesla in the EV industry and the automaker has been using this to collect data from its Fleet and improve features like autopilot the interesting thing is that Tesla's got proprietary data meaning no one else can use it and that is really fascinating Tesla's Fleet of vehicles is equipped with a wide array of vast Advanced sensors including liar radar and cameras forming the eyes ears and sensors of their autopilot driving system this Suite of sensors captures critical data providing an accurate real-time understanding of the environment experts have also said that a company like Tesla which has obtained and is still obtaining enormous amounts of data from FSD is an Avenged position because of the data that it has acquired from millions of cars on the road driving billions of miles with all that data collected Tesla can improve its fstd capabilities but that's not all Tesla is also planning to bring this technology to China FSD has been a topic of concern for various Industries and especially that for major competitors in China in response to this the car companies confirmed that the implementation of FSD in China is indeed underway as one of thej major players in intelligent driving Tech the FSD system is considered to be entering a countdown phase for implementation in China the benefits that this could have could potentially blow investor Minds now that we talked about the latest updates let's see what analysts are saying Tesla analysts have revealed their expectations for the fourth quarter Tesla has got high targets for 2023 and according to Global equities research analyst trip Chow the EV maker is on track for a global Blockbuster fourth quarter already Tesla's plans to sell and produce about 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 however to accomplish that the automaker will need to finish the third quarter on a strong note and complete the fourth quarter with record numbers chowri also noted that it's expecting monstrous Q4 figures from Tesla and he also reiterated an overweight rating and a $350 price target for the car company Tesla's produced mediocre results for Q3 but at least it generated positive free cash flow we think these numbers could be much better in Q4 no doubt these performance figures for Q4 do remain uncertain and there is no guarantee that it's going to be another record-breaking quarter and there are a lot of indicators and also bits of proof for a remarkable quarter what do you think though
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