원문 보기
Do you believe in cryptocycles? Do you have an ETH price prediction? Is there a scenario where Bitmain would ever sell ETH? Just watching the strategy, what is your reaction to what he does? This is probably one of the most important updates Tom Lee has shared this month, as he recently appeared on the Bankless channel, where he answered a number of pressing questions about the market, including: what Bitcoin is currently pointing to , his Ethereum price prediction, whether he still believes in the four-year cycle, what’s really going on with MicroStrategy, and whether he could eventually sell Ethereum in the future.
There's a lot to unpack in this conversation , so let's hear exactly what he says. I think we...I think we've hit bottom if... Actually, if you look at past crypto cycles, the price low didn't exactly follow Bitcoin's 1,064 days . So, um, but there was a local minimum. So I think it's quite possible that Bitcoin has already reached its local minimum.
And then a new local minimum appears, but it is not lower than the current one. And then, looking back, everyone will say, "Oh, yeah, because it had to be adjusted for the S&P 500." And you know, that's quite likely. Or it will be Nasdaq, the ratio of Bitcoin to Nasdaq—that is the real minimum. So the answer is: I think if we're 90% of the way to the bottom and in time, let's say 95% in time and 90% in price.
I would say that unless you're a real genius, you know, buying here will actually be a better price than trying to buy a month after the low. Do you have an ETH price prediction for 2027 or 2028? If we think about the 1-2 year perspective and we know that stablecoins have driven Ethereum to 5,000, um, but now we have not only AI driving demand for cryptocurrency and, um, Wall Street is actually building new settlement rails based on cryptocurrency, being in the middle of a bull cycle, I would say that just being in a new bull cycle means that Ethereum should be above 5,000, but then what we add on top: Wall Street tokenization plus AI, so I think Ethereum could easily go above 10,000 in that period.
I want to ask about Michael Saylor because Michael Saylor has certainly had developments in the last 2 months with MSTR and all this apparatus. Are there any lessons you've learned just from watching the strategy and how Michael Saylor runs this company? Uh, what's your reaction to what he's doing there?
Since Michael Saylor began his strategy of building Bitcoin reserves, the company's shares have outperformed not only Bitcoin itself, but also the broader market. So in a way, MicroStrategy today as an equity story is an extraordinary success . He later refined the strategy, adding other tools and presenting a vision of “digital credit,” where MicroStrategy acts as an intermediary layer between Bitcoin and capital markets.
And you know, he's trying, and I understand his strategy. It attempts to monetize volatility as a component and then use that to turn a portion of Bitcoin into a yield strategy . You know, this is a very, very complex strategy, and I think we will only be able to evaluate it later. If it has been 6 years since its transition to the status of a company with bitcoin reserves, then we probably won't be able to judge success until 2032.
Excuse me, 2032. Yes, of course. I think this is the right approach. So I think he gained enough credibility that people gave him time, but as you know, all of this was happening in the middle of cryptowinter. And I'll say it again: when prices fall, everyone starts pointing to the actions of a specific company, but in a broader sense, 90% of what's happening is macroeconomics.
Cryptocurrency is a very important spin-off from AI. The more powerful AI becomes, the more relevant cryptocurrency becomes. That's the main thing, isn't it? In fact, the more AI develops, the more important crypto becomes. So, crypt is clearly a derivative story from AI, but in terms of timing, I think you're right.
While AI has been developing successfully, things have changed, but before this year, no one was interested in anything else. But now that is changing. Do you believe in cryptocycles? It's like talking about technical analysis. There are many people who invest in the stock market and say, "I never look at the charts." "I'm not interested in technical analysis." And yet, technical strategists determine market peaks and bottoms with amazing accuracy, you know?
This means that a true investor, even if he is only interested in fundamental indicators, should never ignore technical analysis, because it is the techniques that correctly capture turning points. So, yes, the same will happen with cryptocycles. I don't know why a cryptocycle exists, but I don't want to show disrespect for the fact that cryptocycles can exist.
Is there a scenario where Bitmain would ever sell ETH? From a cash management perspective, this is not necessary because ETH is an inherently income-generating asset, and rewards generate cash flow. At this time, we are not converting them to USDC or US dollars at all. If we reach 5% and continue to accumulate ETH through income, there may be a scenario where we simply don't want to exceed 5%, so we sell the rewards we receive.
You know, it's possible. I think from our perspective, ETH does not need to be sold. For that matter, there will be other ways to use Ethereum. For example, today we are doing native staking, and we did it with just over 5 million ETH. This leaves 800,000 ETH that are currently not staked. Would we consider using these funds productively for the ecosystem?
Perhaps. So instead of selling Ethereum, we will most likely try to find ways to monetize our assets. Tom Lee continued to make it clear that he doesn't completely dismiss the possibility of a 4-year cycle, but believes the market is much more than just following that narrative. And of course, he believes we've already seen a bottom for Bitcoin, which means there could be bright prospects ahead, especially with the price currently hovering around $79,000.
Things could get absolutely crazy in the coming months, as he also believes that Ethereum could potentially double or even triple in value. So as investors we must do everything we can to increase our presence, remain patient and continue to hold assets.
Comments 0