저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
암호화폐는 10월 10일 대규모 디레버리징 이후 금 대비 약세로 전환됐으나, 비트코인은 2026년 중 신고가를 갱신할 것으로 전망. 테더의 수익성과 블록체인 기반 금융 활용을 근거로 제시. 이더리움은 BTC 대비 변동성이 크고 월가(블랙록 토큰화 펀드)의 활용이 늘고 있다고 주장. 시장 타이밍보다 장기 보유와 하락 시 매수를 권고.
다듬은 글
If Bitcoin reaches a million, and it goes 10x from here, that means Ethereum could go up 50x. This is that moment. Bitcoin will reach a new high this year. The most important piece of advice I can give people is that many investors have been waiting for this market analysis from Tom Lee, and he finally breaks it down in this video.
If you own Bitcoin, Ethereum, or any other cryptocurrency, you better pay very close attention to it because Tom Lee believes we could still see a powerful breakout as we approach the end of the year. Significant changes are possible, and the next move in the market could surprise many investors. So let's hear exactly what Tom Lee has to say.
So, cryptocurrency outperformed gold and kept pace with it until October 10. In October, for example, Bitcoin grew by 36%, and Ethereum by 45%. So, Ethereum outperformed silver. But October 10th saw the largest deleveraging event in cryptocurrency history, bigger than what happened in November 2022 around FTX.
After that, Bitcoin lost more than 35% of its value, and by some measures almost 50%. Cryptocurrency lost ground to gold due to the reduction in leverage within the crypto market. Cryptocurrencies periodically experience leverage reductions, and this makes the work of market makers much harder. Market makers are, in essence, the central bank of cryptocurrency. So many market makers, I would say maybe half, were wiped out on October 10th. Until the day cryptocurrency becomes widespread and supported by institutional investors, internal leverage reductions seem to keep knocking it off its feet.
Bitcoin is digital gold, but the universe of people who believe in this thesis is not the same universe that owns gold. I think the adoption curve of cryptocurrency is still higher than that of gold, because more people own gold than cryptocurrency. But the path to increasing that level of adoption is going to be very bumpy. I think 2026 will be a really important test, because if Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, we know the deleveraging is behind us.
I think Bitcoin will reach a new high this year. What is the reason for this? I think the utility of cryptocurrency is growing. Banks, for example, recognize blockchain, and the idea of settlement and finality works very well on blockchain. And then a company like Tether, a crypto bank, proves that a bank based on blockchain is actually better than a traditional bank.
For example, Tether is expected to generate nearly $20 billion in revenue in 2026. This would make it one of the top five banks by profit. Its valuation could be second only to JP Morgan's, which is twice the valuation of Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley. Tether has only 300 full-time employees. JP Morgan has 300,000.
Using blockchain, they make almost as much money as any bank, or more. They hold less than 1% of the M1 money supply and have a tiny balance sheet, yet they are one of the most profitable banks in the world.
Ethereum is the second largest blockchain, and I think it will always be more volatile than Bitcoin until it becomes similar in size. The crypto world views Ethereum as priced against Bitcoin. If you simply look at ETH versus BTC, Bitcoin is effectively the price denomination of the crypto world. The Ethereum-to-Bitcoin price ratio is still lower than it was in 2021, four years ago. And compared to four years ago, Ethereum is a much better blockchain, because tokenization, including tokenized dollars, is one of the big bets Wall Street is making.
BlackRock has already tokenized loan funds on Ethereum. So Ethereum is actually a blockchain that Wall Street is starting to use.
The most important piece of advice I can give people is that trying to time the market makes you the enemy of your own future performance. Many investors always want to buy only at the bottom and sell at the top. In cryptocurrency, the people who really make money are those who invest for the long term. They should view a pullback as a chance to buy, not a chance to sell. This distinction is important, because too many people sell on emotion and then never make a second decision to buy back. They lose all the benefits that long-term investing offers.
Many listeners are skeptical about cryptocurrencies and may have no experience with them, but one thing we should appreciate is that cryptocurrency is being embraced by the younger generation. It's part of their lives because they are digital natives, and there is a real blurring between what is a service and what is money in the future. This is no different from what happened in 1995, when Bill Gates was on Letterman talking about the Internet. David Letterman expressed enormous skepticism about the Internet because he was not the generation that embraced it. If David Letterman or Bill Gates explained this to a 20-year-old, the 20-year-old would instantly understand the future of the Internet. I think that's exactly what's happening with cryptocurrency today.
I would only buy cryptocurrency that already exists, that is, Bitcoin and Ethereum. The second thing I would focus on is that cryptocurrency is a settlement layer, and in the future it may become invisible. Bitmain not only acts as a settlement layer for the industry, but with the investments we make, we are truly becoming a financial services company. So with Bitmain, you're not just buying Ethereum shares, you're buying a company that's helping to drive the future of finance.
Tom Lee continues to share something extremely important, not just about cryptocurrency but about stocks and investing in general. For anyone with money in the market, patience is key. Real profits take time to materialize. The short-term view is always volatile and emotional, but over a longer horizon, prices tend to rise. This is why panic selling is a mistake. Instead, focus on dollar-cost averaging, maintaining your investments, and continuous learning. The more you understand how markets, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and cryptocurrency work, the stronger your conviction becomes. Being informed helps you stay calm, confident, and prepared for market developments.
If this helped, don't forget to like the video and subscribe to the channel for more updates. Have you ever wanted to learn about Bitcoin before? Now is your chance with this simple Bitcoin e-book for teens. Link in the description.
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