저자: TomLee—제목·자막상인터뷰출연자,소속Fundstrat추정 · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 크립토 윈터가 끝나고 강세장이 시작됐다고 주장하며 비트코인 76,000달러 상회 시 약세장 종료를 제시한다. 이더리움은 비트코인 대비 저평가 상태이며 비트코인 적정가 25만 달러 가정 시 이더리움 약 2.2만 달러까지 가능하다고 본다. 1% 이더리움 편입이 포트폴리오 수익을 크게 높인다는 10년 백테스트를 근거로 제시했다. 토큰화 시장이 3백조 달러 규모가 될 수 있다는 Grayscale 전망을 인용하며 크립토 네트워크 가치가 현재 2조 달러 이상으로 갈 것이라 본다. 매수 후 보유, 달러 코스트 평균법을 권한다.
다듬은 글
So, I think you're going to have plenty of time to buy crypto over the next few months. But again, if crypto winter has ended by the end of this year, we're going to see some strong market analysis features Tom Lee sharing his latest outlook on the current state of the crypto market. More specifically, Bitcoin and Ethereum.
In a recent interview on the CoinDesk channel, he shares his updated prediction for the end of the year, what's going on right now with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and whether it's a good time to buy or if we've got to wait and hold out for lower prices before jumping in. So, this is going to be a very interesting video.
Let's hear what he has to say. Crypto winter's over. And uh the spring is here, meaning the bull market's starting. And most people don't recognize when a bull market is starting. So, I want to give you the reasons why uh that you should be adding to your exposure here, not selling. The second is the drivers of this next bull market, which are pretty straightforward, but I just really need to emphasize it and why agentic AI and tokenization will make crypto-native entities probably more profitable than uh traditional banks.
So, I know there's a fog of war, uh the US is at war with Iran, but that really shouldn't affect where things are scarce and what things are working. To me, if Bitcoin closes up above 76,000 76,000 this month, the bear market is definitely over. Since the war started, crypto actually has been the best-performing assets.
You can see Ethereum is the best-performing assets since the start of the Iran war. Okay. And the trends have turned positive. In fact, uh John Bollinger said his trend model turned positive and he now has a full position in Bitcoin. All right. So, you might be so burned out because of the last crypto winter that you decided to give up on crypto, but keep in mind uh crypto has been a huge diversifier.
Okay, so I want to go back 10 years and say if you had zero exposure to Ethereum 10 years ago, and you just bought the S&P, you'd have $229,000. That's the first row there. And that's starting with 100,000. If you bought just 1% of your portfolio into Ethereum 10 years ago, your total portfolio would be worth 520,000.
So, you doubled your total portfolio by adding 1% to Ethereum. By the way, if you added 5%, which is the third row, you could see that your portfolio would be worth 1.7 million, basically eight times your return. So, crypto's been a huge diversifier when you think about 10-year cycles. And it's a great hedge because another way to think of this is to say how much of another asset do you need to own to absorb a 50% loss in the S&P 500?
For Ethereum, if you had a 0.4% exposure, uh you would actually completely offset a catastrophe in your equity holdings. If you had to do this with gold, you would need to have 37% of your portfolio in gold. So, again, Ethereum has provided the same hedge protection for 1/100 the exposure. So, uh as we think about Ethereum's price, I do think it all comes down to what Bitcoin does.
So, here's Ethereum's price ratio. Uh I think the long-term average is the number just to think about, which is 0.048, and the 2021 high of 0.087. If I lay that to where we think Bitcoin fair value should be, which is around 250,000, um the 2021 high average, for instance, would get you to 22,000 Ethereum.
So, at the current price of 2,300, Ethereum's cheap. And of course, as you can see in crypto spring in the early part of a cycle, Ethereum doesn't really move reflexively. So, I think you're going to have plenty of time to buy crypto over the next few months. But again, if crypto winter has ended by the end of this year, we're going to see some strong moves, just like we've been seeing with memory stocks, uh currently.
First consolidation ended with Ethereum making a 227x. The second consolidation that happened in Ethereum ended with a 54x. Um so, I think this third consolidation's going to be pulled up because of tokenization and agentic AI. And you know, maybe Ethereum's a 25x from here. Uh why do I think crypto is positioned to actually have a bull market?
It's really because it's represents the future of money. Um Elon Musk said, "The system won't use dollars as a currency in the future. It's just mass and energy." He was referring to basically compute and building compute in space, but his point is correct that what is scarce in the future is going to be compute and energy.
And yesterday, uh LinkedIn's founder, Reid Hoffman, even said, "Crypto becomes critical in an AI world." And he actually didn't think he'd ever be quoted by Kalshi. And Marc Andreessen says the the grand unification of AI and crypto agents are going to need money. Already a lot's happened with tokenization.
Um stablecoin volumes, and this is from Bitwise, um have now exceeded Visa payments. So, we already know uh we're past the point of critical mass. And Grayscale had a nice report where they're projecting tokenizations essentially going to be a $300 trillion market. Now, uh up until this point, the value of the layer one, the L1, was equal to the size of the tokenized market.
Okay, so if this math is holds, then the total crypto market will be 300 trillion. Um I'm not sure if that ratio will hold, but of course, the argument still is true that networks that host a large share of tokenized activity, and this is from Grayscale, is going to capture the economic value. So, if the total market's 300 trillion and crypto's a $2 trillion market today, I think crypto network value is going to be clearly above 2 trillion.
Tom Lee continues to firmly assert that the next coming months could still be a great opportunity to buy more crypto. And if you're going to be in this game for the long run, it doesn't really matter. You just have to buy whenever you see some dips or some volatility. Just buy and hold. Buy and hold.
This is your strategy. That's the smartest move you can make. Don't follow the crowd. Just focus on dollar cost averaging and wait. Hold on to your assets. Don't sell and panic with your exposure because the long-term game is always great. If you zoom out, you will see exactly what I'm talking about in the chart.
Let's get that money in the future, folks. Stay focused on the long term. Keep learning. Dollar cost average consistently. Increase exposure responsibly. And position yourself before momentum shifts and the market moves faster than most expect. Have you ever wished you had learned about Bitcoin earlier?
Make sure to teach your kids or young family about it now before it's too late. This team's ebook is perfect for that. Link in the description.
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