저자: TomLee—제목·설명란기준,소속명시없으나발언내Fundstrat관련언급없음;미상처리대신이름기준'TomLee' · 외국인
요약 보기
강세장 진입 근거로 비트코인 200일선 상회, 암호화폐 ETF 자금 유입 전환, ETH 저점 대비 2배 상승 등을 제시. 클래리티법 부결은 중간선거 후 재추진 가능성으로 해석. ETH는 장기적으로 6만 달러 가능, BTC는 금 기준 250만 달러 논리. 토큰화(140조 달러 자산)가 주요 촉매. 연말까지 상당한 상승 예상, 눌림목 매수·장기 보유 권고.
다듬은 글
Why do we believe that a bull market is currently underway? There are many reasons for that. First, Bitcoin is above its 200-day moving average. This has never happened during a bear market. So, Bitcoin has clearly returned to a bull market. Therefore, this crypto bull market is likely to be larger than previous cycles, as the growth potential is significant.
If our view is correct, then the crypto market is set for a very strong move by the end of the year. Tom Lee has finally updated his medium- and long-term outlook for cryptocurrencies , and his latest year-end forecast surprised many. This is what he is going to examine in detail in this market analysis.
First he will discuss Ethereum, then Bitcoin, and finally all the key catalysts that are currently converging and could trigger the next massive peak in the crypto market. So let's get started. Ethereum is probably one of the most important cryptocurrencies because it's, um, the most widely used for tokenization at the moment.
Ethereum remains extremely secure, with 100% uptime ; he never had any downtime. The current development roadmap includes increasing block size and speed, you know, capabilities. So, Ethereum is worth 2600, 2700 today. The previous high was 5000. Where do I think Ethereum should be in the future? I think 60,000 is quite achievable, because, for example, in the next crypto bull cycle, which we believe is starting, Ethereum is leading this upward movement.
For example, Ethereum has been the best-performing major cryptocurrency since the end of June. It surpassed Solana and overtook Bitcoin. And over the last two major bull markets, Ethereum has grown from 17 to 60 times. So, if the previous high was 5,000, then a 10x increase is 50,000. A 12x increase is 60,000.
Do I think a price of 60,000 for ETH can be justified in a few years? I think it's still very likely. We've actually said in many interviews that even if the Clarity Act doesn't pass, crypto will be fine . The law was not passed, but the crypto is doing really well. Since the transparency law failed to pass, crypto prices have been rising even faster.
And I think this reflects two things. First: without this law, 90% of crypto regulation will be carried out through rules from the CFTC and SEC. The Clarity Act simply defines them as organizations with powers, but they already have those powers today. But I think everyone should remember: the Clarity Act had bipartisan support.
Bipartisan means that both Democrats and Republicans supported this bill. M-hm. But before the midterm elections, if the Clarity Act were passed before them, it would be , so to speak, Trump's bill, right? So Republicans would take credit for it. That's why it failed, because Democrats didn't want to support a law that would help Republicans in the elections.
After the midterm elections, the party that controls the Senate and the House of Representatives will support this law. So, it will be approved anyway. This will probably happen after the elections. What we said this year: In June, we believed that the crypto market was entering a “crypto spring.” So now we have compelling evidence that this was true : a bull market began in late June .
Why do we believe that a bull market is currently underway? There are many reasons for that. First, Bitcoin is above its 200-day moving average. This has never happened during a bear market. So Bitcoin has clearly returned to a " bull" market. Flows into crypto ETFs have turned positive over the year.
This never happens in a bear market. So, we have positive flows into Bitcoin. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Performance —Ethereum has already doubled from its lows. This has never happened during a bear market. And October 5th is what people call a 4-year cycle. We argued that the crypto market would bottom out earlier in this cycle.
And once again, it seems we were right. If our view is correct, the crypto market is set to see very significant growth by the end of the year. The reason why we can claim the great potential of crypto is that gold has risen and reached new highs. Bitcoin is digital gold. So the "ceiling" for Bitcoin, the minimum limit—it should be worth like gold, and that's $2.5 million per Bitcoin.
Well, if Bitcoin can reach 2.5 million, simply as a store of value, then cryptocurrencies like Ethereum should grow even more. Many investors believed that the crypto market would strictly follow a 4- year cycle. And, in fact, this deterred many from investing in the crypto market. Many so-called “crypto OGs,” early investors, did not plan to buy cryptocurrency until October.
They even tried to open short positions on the movement from June 30 to October. So I think it caught a lot of people by surprise. But, again, that was not our point of view. We believed that the crypto market would bottom out sooner, which is exactly what happened. This skepticism that people have today, right?
After all, October has n't even arrived yet. Bitcoin has grown significantly, and many are pessimistic. This will fuel growth until the end of the year. The good news is that there is little leverage in the crypto market right now . So the risk of deleveraging is much lower. That's why this crypto bull market is likely to be bigger than other cycles , because each has its own driver.
In 2016-2017, it was an ICO boom. In 2019-2021, it was an NFT boom. Last year it was the introduction of stablecoins. In the next few years, two major waves will drive crypto adoption. The first is tokenization. Tokenization is the conversion of dollars , stocks, and bonds into digital equivalents. This is already supported by BlackRock, Robinhood, Revolut, and Fidelity.
This is a huge wave that will use Ethereum and Solana to create tokenized assets. Since 2017, the ratio of the value of assets on the blockchain to their underlying value has been one to one. So, if you have a trillion dollars of tokenized assets in Ethereum, the value of the network should be around a trillion.
There are $140 trillion in assets that can be tokenized. So the growth potential is significant. And the use of AI agents for trading and using crypto wallets is creating a nascent economy—this is another big wave. Tom Lee continues to believe that while Ethereum has yet to show significant price growth, it could surpass $60,000 in a relatively short time.
He also believes that in the long term, Bitcoin could rise above $2 million. We just have to be prepared for this potential meteoric rise, because sooner or later it could happen and surprise the entire market. You just have to be ready when that moment comes. As always, buy on dips when you can, continue to accumulate, and hold for the long term. This is how we steadily build real capital over time.
Comments 0