저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 3분기 인도량이 전년 대비 약 2.13% 낮은 486,532대로 발표되며, 세금 혜택 종료 전 수요 선반영을 감안하면 선방했다는 평가. 테슬라는 347 지지 후 414 저항 방향 반등 기대. 에너지 저장/ Enphase는 금리 민감 및 고평가 우려. 중국 경쟁 리스크와 테슬라 PEG 4.8의 고평가 언급. 본인 유료 구독 상품(Reinvest One) 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Tesla just beat delivery expectations. We need to talk about what this means for Tesla stock, because Tesla is on a real roller coaster ride today . And I have to say, just a few days ago we sent an email. Completely free . This isn't even an advertisement for something you have to pay for. We sent out an email, our first “Meet Kevin” digest.
And it contained an optimistic forecast for Tesla. You can get it for free if you want. Just type meetkevin.com/digest into your browser or click the link below. meetkevin.com/digest, press Enter, and you get this. Price targets, macroeconomics and finance delivered daily for free in your email. I also publish them in the Daily Capital tab on the Meet Kevin app, but some of you have told me that you prefer to receive them by mail.
So now we're giving you a quick overview of the videos, streams, and price predictions, and then providing links to the videos for your convenience ; For example, if you want to watch one of the videos, you can get a deeper analysis. And if you just need a quick, "Hey , I didn't get a chance to watch Kevin today, can I have a quick recap?" This is an email that we have prepared for you, and again , it will be in the Meet Kevin app under the Daily Capital tab or you can get it through the daily digest.
So just leave your email at meetkevin.com/digest. But that was an optimistic forecast for Tesla, and here we are. Tesla has simply fantastically exceeded delivery expectations. The stock is up 5%, and there is about a 70% correlation: when Tesla goes up, SpaceX goes up too. So, SpaceX is growing now solely because Tesla is growing.
I mean, the graphics here are almost perfect. Personally, I think people have a kind of " Elon basket," and they're optimistic about Elon—they buy into Elon. They are pessimistic about Elon—they are selling Elon. Well, whatever it is, it is what it is. But it's useful to know if you're curious about what's happening with SpaceX today.
That's because Tesla is growing, okay? So, what happened to Tesla and what do we need to consider regarding the stock price? Why is this important for Tesla, is it just another delivery report? This is very important because the automotive business is the core of Tesla's business. And what's really crazy is that compared to last year, the third quarter was critical.
Why? Because you may not remember it, but I do. Very, very, very important. Last year, the third quarter was the last chance to take advantage of tax breaks on electric vehicles. So September 30th of last year was a huge milestone for Tesla, and we pulled a lot of demand for Tesla cars ahead of time.
Well, that showed us a shipment count of 497,099. That was what we had in the third quarter of last year. Of course? We just got the shipment data, which was 486,532. So, yes, that number is lower. Oh, I completely forgot the number here. That's it. 486. 486,532 divided by 497,099. This means that we are now only 2.
13, 2.13% behind the previous year's figures, excluding tax breaks. This is simply incredible. We're talking about the actual, okay? In fact, a $ 7,500 price increase for the Tesla . And we are literally within 2.13%. You know how that sounds to me, right? Steeply. Yes. Yes. This is, frankly, a very, very solid result for Tesla.
That's what I call cool, kid . Steeply. Good. Now, why is this so important? Why do we care? I thought Tesla was working on Optimus or Cybercab or something like that. Listen, Cybercab has a lot of work ahead of it because we need to shorten the timeframe to launch Cybercab in different cities across the country and eventually in other countries.
This will take time. But do you understand what Cybercab really is? It doesn't matter now what the fleet sales will be. This will be important in the future. Do you know what Cybercab is doing in the meantime? Think about it. This is free advertising. Every person who says, "Look at that Cybercab. It looks crazy.
Oh, I heard they drive without a driver. What? Yeah, they have versions without a steering wheel." "Oh my God . Can I buy a Tesla?" Well, you can't buy a Cybercab yet, but you can buy a Model Y or Model 3 and get FSD, I'll pay for it monthly and bring Tesla more regular income. You can buy this right now if you want, you know.
There are a few in stock if you want to just pop into a dealership, Tesla store, or go online and buy right now. And you can drive away now, letting the car take you home. This is the best branding in the world, bro. This is simply brilliant. It doesn't matter that the Cybertruck does n't work everywhere right now .
This is advertising. So they put these things everywhere. And what? This is simply incredible. So, I'm excited about what this means for the biggest line of business. And it exceeded expectations by about 5%. But we need to look at the actual table. The largest business area. Scott wants to know how much my black X is worth.
Well, why are you trying to calculate the cost of my black X? You know, it has sentimental value for me. What I write about my black X is worth a lot. Someone says: "I entered my email, but I didn't receive it..." Ah, for the digest. If you have any issues with "Meet Kevin", just email us at [email protected].
We will take care of you. This is Kevin's work. And look, Kevin is a happy guy. See? Happy. Reinvest one. By the way, that's really cool. I want to be optimistic about Tesla. We'll talk about Tesla in a moment, but this is really really cool, because look at this. Oh , it's just sex. Look at this. invest Homes, nd the Business Blueprint product.
Bro, you get so much in one product. And this is a complete redesign that will appear by the end of the year, the Reinvest terminal. This is just incredibly cool. We even have Tesla here as an example. Look here. This will be an example of what you will get. In 96% of the cases where this has occurred, Tesla shares have risen by 30% within 60 days.
The point is to buy on the dip. The setup in action, right? These are the things that will come in this product, and what we're building is just amazing. And we do it in a similar way to how they...You know how they took away lifetime access to FSD? And now you have to pay monthly to get full autopilot.
We'll do the same with this. Except that everyone who has lifetime access to Reinvest One by the end of the year keeps it forever. And anyone who signs up in 2027 or later will pay an annual fee for the product, essentially like a license. But you know, Tesla actually switched to an annual recurring revenue ( ARR) model for FSD, and that's pretty smart, because now that they're getting new subscribers on top of their roughly $750 million in annual revenue from FSD, you'd expect it to be almost pure profit that just keeps coming in.
And that's very exciting because ARR is getting a higher multiple on Wall Street. So, this is a great thing. So what do we have here...Someone says we need a good way to implement monthly payments. Uh, no, we don't make a monthly payment. We will always offer an annual subscription option. If you need some way to split the payment, you can use Affirm, Klarna, or "pay in installments " if you prefer to split it, but then you own it for life.
But we do n't do that. We are not the financiers of this process. So, uh , SpaceX and Tesla table. People forget. They are very excited about the operating profit from Optimus and the operating profit from the Semi tractor. And my sheet here shows the operating profit from the Semi tractor. From FSD, it could grow to $2.5 billion.
A Semi tractor can give 4.2. Er, Tesla bot, I have 1.5 written down here. It's a bit, you know, so-so. Perhaps Semi and the bot will be separated. It does n't matter. The point is that people don't understand that all these damn numbers are just a fraction of the operating profit you get from selling the damn cars.
Now, to be fair , the margin I've given here is an inflated one for the 2030 Cybertruck fleet . But if I reduce that margin to, say, 20%, that's still $27.5 billion in operating profit from selling 4 million cars. This is my prediction for this company: you should sell cars . And the more you can sell these damn cars, the more money the company makes in net profit.
So I want to see car deliveries go from 4 million, or sorry, 2 million a year to 4. Right now we still have some work to do, because even at the rate we're at now, multiplied by 4, we're only at about 2 million, well, 1.93, right? This is not very good. We still have work to do . But that's nothing, everything is ahead.
And this is a sign that a price advantage exists. For this company, the process of reaching bottom is already underway. This is very exciting. So, my prediction is that at a current price of $375, if the price reaches $824 per share by the end of 2030, that would give you a rate of return of about 20%, and although I'm a little biased, I think my little startup will far exceed that.
But my startup is not a company with a capitalization of 1.5 trillion dollars. This is still a very tiny baby. Of course, you'd expect it to grow faster, but the bottom line is that for such a large company, that's actually a very good annual total revenue if they can execute on some of their plans.
Now, obviously, if we apply discounting, let's say if I can get or capture a 30% stake. If I can only achieve a 24% margin on car deliveries, we'll be down to about a 16% annualized gross profit margin. So we can experiment: I could leave 30%, remove the Tesla Bot, remove the semi-trailer , and still get about 18%.
So there is real potential for the stock . But if we look at the bottoming process and technical indicators, I think the next stop for Tesla after the Iran deal will be the 414 mark. So, reaching the 414 level after the Iran deal is key. And if I look at Tesla stock overall, you'll see that we've been losing ground here, sorry, right here.
We've been losing a bit of value in recent days , but we've stabilized above 347, which is great, because it was briefly during the liquidation of Leopold's assets. It was a discount. It was a real gift when we lost that purple line right here. But the 347 mark remains very stable. And we just pushed back from it again here.
And the next line is 414. I think we will be moving in that direction pretty soon. So, I find this very interesting. And I think it's good for Tesla, it's a win for Tesla. Bloomberg states that there are some risks with China, and I agree with that . China has been a big exporter of Tesla cars, you know, in July alone Shanghai produced 66,000 cars, which is almost 200,000 cars per quarter coming from the Shanghai facility alone.
The energy storage didn't work out, and I have to say I'm a little disappointed by that. I tweeted a photo of myself with a Tesla Powerwall in the background because we just installed it, paid for it, and got all the permits. But I think it's really cool. Now I'll show you. It says "my home" here . This is not actually my home.
I guess I should figure out how to rename it. But let's see what's happening with the so- called virtual power plant in California right now. As you can see , this building currently consumes 6.1 kW. 1.3 kW goes to charging the Powerwall, that is, part of the solar energy currently being produced. We're charging the Powerwall again because we usually use it when rates are highest, around 4:00 PM to 8:00 PM.
They did a great job developing this app. I really like the way they created it. It's even...I hate to say it , but it's much better than the Enphase app. And that's the thing: the Enphase Enlighten app doesn't have the same appeal as Tesla. And now, apparently , you can plug in the Cybertruck to use its battery as a backup source for your home, which is also quite interesting.
I wonder if this will work because I have an Enphase system at home, so I can compare. In the end, it's all the same thing . Tesla uses Chinese batteries in its power supplies, and apparently the solar panels are also Chinese. I have Q Cells in this house —they're German cells. But we have several different panel systems, which is very annoying.
You see, they didn't merge my sites. So in the Enphase app I have “Kevin 1” and “Kevin 2” for the same house, even though it’s the same area, we just added panels later. The app is just kind of clunky. He's not that good. Let me see. I don't think there's anything confidential here. But it doesn't matter .
So this is...This is the Enphase app. And he's just not that cool, right? Charge 41%, development, discharge, etc. Okay, I'm having a hard time understanding. What does " Live Status" do? Connecting to the gateway. Oh my God, man. That's incredibly slow. Look at this. Look at this [ __ ]. This is making me sick .
So, well, yeah. Both of these options, by the way, it's worth noting, are sensitive to interest rates, right? So, if we ...if my prediction is correct, that we are at the peak of profitability, it's not possible to connect. Of course it does n't work, you idiot. The poor thing is unhappy. However. If it's true, uh, and my prediction turns out to be correct , that we're at peak profitability, Tesla will benefit from that.
Because my forecast—5.27—is the peak of profitability. 5.27 , and we are now somewhere at 5.26 . I think 5.27 is the peak of profitability. If that's the case, and we end up getting, uh, what's it called? If we finally make a deal with Iran, Tesla will skyrocket. And Enphase, maybe, too. Enphase currently has a small option as a player in the data center market, but it's mostly a bet on interest rates.
So it's a worthless action when the stakes are so high. Absolute rubbish at such high stakes. But I want to be frank. Enphase is a competitor in the energy sector. I mean, Tesla didn't even meet gigawatt expectations. They expected...well, they got 13.7 gigawatts, and they expected...they fell short by 14%.
But it's almost safe to say that the bottoming process for Enphase is complete. Isn't that right? Look at this. They fell hard and brutally during the interest rate hike cycle. Let's just draw these little gray bold lines here. The bottom has been reached, and in fact, you could argue that since we are at the peak of profitability and still scraping by, you could say that this is a very cheap company right now.
$4.4 billion with a data center option on converters, which I think they will demonstrate within the next month and a half. So part of me has the audacity to say: if we reach peak profitability and Enphase's data center option works, it's a very cheap competitor, even though their legacy applications and stuff don't have the same appeal as Tesla.
Well, Tesla—it's a 10 out of 10, you know, Sarah Eisen level of attractiveness. And Enphase is somewhere in the top three. But she will cook you a damn fine meal. Well , anyway. What did we stop at? Oh, I think it's also worth mentioning that, uh, because I see a question here about whether solar panels should be installed.
Oh, I'll answer that question. By the way, if you want, I have an affiliate link to Tesla, and this video is not sponsored by Tesla. I'm just saying that if you want to get discounts with a referral link, I'm buying Tesla t-shirts or caps or something like that, for example. I have a bunch of caps there that I got for referral credits, but if you go to metkevin.com/tesla, it's m e t kevin.com/tesla.
I know I need to redirect meetkevin.com to Tesla. Maybe I'll do it soon. I just don't want to go into CloudFlare right now, so I'll save that for later. But anyway, metkevin.com/tesla, if you type that in, here we are . Here you get referral benefits for cars or a $400 discount on solar panels or a Powerwall.
So you're better off using someone's affiliate link than not, because you'll get $400. But, um...But, anyway, someone asked, "Are solar panels worth it ? I was thinking about installing them, but I was told they don't produce enough energy to pay for themselves." So, we get about 10% profit on invested funds.
We spent about $31,000 on panels and Powerwall systems. There is a certain limit here. There is a certain curve where it doesn't make sense and then suddenly it becomes profitable. We need to calculate everything. But my calculations show about 10.1% return on investment, and I think that's a good deal.
And...for most people, this income needs to be assessed, but it's after- tax income, right? Because if you do it at home, you usually don't write off all your electricity costs unless you run a business there, right? So for most people, you're saving on your utility bills after taxes, which actually increases your income by, I don't know, I'm not going to count right now , 30 or 40 percent or so.
So I think there is added value in that as well . But, in any case , yes, there is something to think about. Now for another Bloomberg piece that is pessimistic about Tesla and suggests that Tesla, Toyota and Hyundai risk losing about 12% of market share for Tesla and 10% for Toyota in European sales next year if Chinese brands increase their share by about 5%.
Well, that's quite a lot of numbers. Essentially, the risk you need to be aware of regarding Tesla is that yes, there is real Chinese competition. Does anyone have any real competition for Tesla when it comes to fully autonomous driving? No, not yet . It will appear, but we've been waiting for it for years, and it's still not there.
So, Tesla is doing very well, remaining the leader. And yes, the Chinese risk is a real risk. This is also a risk for America. If the Chinese start selling cars in America, it will be a big mess. As for Tesla's valuation , it is still overvalued . Also keep in mind that Europe accounts for about 17% of Tesla sales.
So, you know, it's not the biggest component of Tesla. It's not that important. But you know, Chinese competition, if it comes to the United States, will create a lot of problems for us. But if we look at the PEG ratio for Tesla, it is currently overvalued. So we want to understand this clearly. Compared to other stocks, Tesla is expensive right now , okay?
Tesla currently trades at about 228 times forward earnings per share of $1.63. This is expensive. If I divide that by the forward growth expectation of 47, I still get a PEG ratio of about 4.8. Okay, I can literally go and buy Broadcom, boring, stupid ASIC developer, photonics, copper technology, Broadcom.
And do you know how much I pay for Broadcom? No, it did n't turn out very well. Er , I meant to say less than 0.8. You pay about 0.67 now for Broadcom. So, just to put the cost in perspective, okay? There are very cheap companies now, by the way, including Nvidia. So I was very, very, very optimistic about Nvidia.
I think this is a bet on robotics. I think this is a bet on vehicle autonomy . There are many more directions there than just advanced chips, although they currently have the highest margins. But, damn it , friend. Wow. They fascinate me. And uh they're also really cheap. I mean, they're at all-time highs today, finally breaking through that 227 mark.
But anyway, if you want more of these predictions, the way I do them, with conclusions for you, you really, really should consider joining Reinvest One. Because you get everything we have to offer in one lifetime package, and this package will become a regular annual license fee in 2027 if you don't purchase it by the end of the year.
If you join in 2026, you won't have to pay any data or license fees, nothing at all. You join and you get all of this. This is incredibly profitable. Honestly, it's probably too cheap for what you get. Alpha membership, trading alerts, stock terminal coming at the end of the yea.
Comments 0