저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 내부지표(브레드스, 금융주 약세)와 달리 경제지표(고용·PMI·ISM·대출)는 양호하며, 10년물 금리 급등은 일본 자본 송환 우려 때문으로 봄. 이란 협상 타결 시 유가 하락으로 금리 안정·미국 주식 급등을 기대하며, 하락 시 매수 대응 권고. 나스닥100은 연말 800 돌파 가능성 제시. 자체 플랫폼 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
We just found out why the market is in a state of extreme fear. And if we are wrong about this, then we are blind to what is really happening. But we think we've stumbled upon something important. And this will have implications for investing over the next few months. But why is the power of stock prices in a state of extreme fear?
Why is the market breadth in a state of extreme fear? So, the number of stocks that are rising compared to those that are falling. Why is the S&P 500 equilibrium index turning downward? In other words, the vast majority of stocks are falling, while the Nasdaq 100 is holding up well. You know, it's really holding at the 735 level, and I'm grateful that we've been actively buying the dips in the 715 to 700 range.
That's great. But why is he stuck? Why is all this standing still? And why is the financial sector flying into the abyss? The XLF ETF is also turning down. I mean, the XLF financial ETF looks just as bad as it did at the height of the Iran conflict in March. And just as bad as during Liberation Day, roughly reaching the 100-day moving average.
What is happening? So, we think we've stumbled upon the reason for what's causing this. It's not just Micron. This isn't just something that's happening or being prepared with GPUs. We'll talk about this or the economy. This is something else. Because the underlying economy seems to be doing well . And this is not to deny the pain that low-income people feel.
But it's a way of saying, "Hey, let's see what's happening with the economy." We have a few notes that we'll look at. We see that layoffs in the tech sector are relatively higher compared to last year or August, but they are actually quite low. Layoffs in the tech sector are low, according to a Challenger Gray report this morning.
And this actually led to an overall reduction in jobs, and given that we are not seeing mass layoffs, but only certain ones, we see that the total number of layoffs in September decreased by 18% compared to August, that is, over the last month. And compared to last year, we have a 20% decrease. So, in other words, we are seeing a decrease in the number of people being laid off.
The employment report from Challenger actually shows that hiring intentions are increasing. So , the economy is doing well, at least in terms of layoffs. Regarding the economy from a PMI perspective, we received another report this morning that confirms previous data that the situation is optimistic.
The PMI reached its highest level since May. The biggest problem we have is rising price pressure. In September, the pace of production growth accelerated again. This is the best figure since May 22, which coincides with last week's data. However, backlogs and demand are driving up prices, which, you know, raises concerns about inflation.
But this rise in 10- year Treasury yields seems excessive. It's as if something else is happening that's creating this pressure. So not only the S&P, but also the ISM report that came out this morning indicates the same thing. The ISM report for September, which came out, well, maybe 50 minutes ago, indicates the same thing.
We have another month of growth in the manufacturing PMI index. New orders are increasing, production is increasing, employment is increasing— all of this is good for the economy. This suggests, " Hey, there shouldn't be any serious problems. So why all the nervousness?" Is it tightening lending conditions that could slow down the development of artificial intelligence?
I mean, Broadcom has promised Anthropic over $40 billion in lending, which of course is a cyclical process, right? The credit goes to Anthropic, and then Anthropic spends it on developing custom chips at Broadcom, and that causes nervousness in the markets because people say, "Oh, this is too cyclical, isn't it?" But for now, it seems like the spending is continuing.
If we look at the lending standards in banks, they remain lenient for large and medium-sized companies . We don't see them getting stronger. As this graph goes down, it means easing lending conditions. If I look at the net lending percentage in small banks, conditions are also easing there. If you look at car loans, the lending conditions are soft.
If you look at real estate and construction loans, the lending conditions are soft. You see the credit requirements increasing, like they did when rates were rising in '22 and '23. So what happens then? Why are we seeing this strange rise in not only the 10-year bond, but also the 10-2 spread? We are already knocking on the door of shock territory.
But a week and a half ago we were at about 20, we were at 21. So suddenly it's skyrocketed to the point where it feels like something is about to break, and that's not a good thing. We don't want anything to break. We want the basic economy to keep working, because that means people can keep getting jobs, they can keep getting hired, and they can squeeze the most out of this AI boom for even longer.
Now , one of the places where we see the AI boom not winding down yet, to me, is when we look at GPUs, and I mentioned this, I want to lay this economic foundation first, because people say, "Well, Kevin, this is cyclical lending." "This will soon be over." But not yet. Look at the H100 rental price index.
It actually grew back. So after the H100 started to show rental price deterioration, and the H200, mind you , they actually started to grow again in the first and second quarter of this year, despite the fact that we now have about 90% of the leading open- scale models that are Chinese. About 50% of tokens spent now are on open- scale models.
So you might wonder, "Why, why are Nvidia chips getting more expensive with all these open-source scales?" Shouldn't it be the other way around? Shouldn't these chips depreciate more? And that's one of the great ironies that actually supports this economy, which again leads us to what is potentially the cause of the problem.
But you have to understand this first. So, let's take our lovely whiteboard here, and we'll write something down. When you think about this AI boom, I want you to think about people ramping up the hardware. So let 's draw some boxes here and call them H100, let's call this A100, which is actually an older chip, let's call this H200.
You know what? This is out of order, okay? But for our purposes, this doesn't matter. And then you release a brand new chip that will be, I don't know, your Reuben Ultra, let's say, okay? So this will be your next-generation chip with the highest bandwidth , which can do a lot more damn work. I mean , we're talking here, on this end, about 10x the performance compared to something like the H100.
So if it can do 10 times more, why are these going up in price? Well, that's the crazy thing about this economy that's keeping this bubble going: the more we can use open- weight models. Moreover, we can simply make these old chips work on models with open weights. So, unsurprisingly, these guys support cutting-edge technology.
So, Anthropic Fable 5.1, GPT 6.1, Gemini 4.0. It's your cutting-edge developments or the latest Grok models, whatever. This is your frontier, the latest and greatest. However, a bunch of models with open scales are emerging, making the old ones more expensive. And this means that instead of the AI boom collapsing, the situation is becoming even more extreme.
Things are getting more optimistic, which means: we're in the middle of the cycle, the party's not over yet, but it feels like someone turned the clock back. You know, looking at a graph like this , I think, "Wow, in the recession phase, it feels like the party is already running past midnight." "And someone just came along and turned the clocks back 2 hours ." And now, oh my, we have a time change.
It's actually only 10:00 PM. I'm like, "Okay." "So what the hell is going on?" Why are Treasury bond yields rising rapidly? Is this really a concern about inflation? So, yes, I understand, the prices in the ISM and S&P reports indicate price pressure. But one of the main factors in pricing has not been these inflationary pressures so far.
In fact, it was oil. But it is notable that the price pressure on oil has slowed. So look at this. Since September 9, oil prices have peaked at between $107 and $109. However, the bond market suffered during the same period. Look at this same period, starting on September 14 : the yield on the 10- year Treasury bond was 4.95-4.99%.
We grew by half a percent, well, 30 basis points, not quite half a percent. We have a 30 basis point increase in 10- year bonds. They just went up rapidly. So, something else is happening. Something else is ruining everything. And we think we found the problem. This is a coupon code for meetkevin.com.
Okay, sorry. I had to insert something annoying while I was looking for the document because I wasn't ready to open it yet. These are Japanese. Yes, no, seriously. Look at this. Here is an article from TS Lombard suggesting that Japanese investors are " coming home". And this has happened several times before.
The red line here is the purchase of US bonds. And when we had this downturn before December 2018 , the stock market experienced a real crash before December '18 . And the Fed had to calm the situation. Jay Powell had to change course. You move here and you have the same problem in 2022. And you have roughly the same problem here, but it indicates that the worst is yet to come.
So, why is this happening? Well, why it happens and the fact that it happens are two different factors. We will consider both. But I want you to quickly see what happened last, you know, last month, probably because it's like his? We are already in October. By the way, happy October to you . But look at this .
Last month you had a decline in Japan's foreign assets of about $79.6 billion. It is expected that this was caused by a record reduction in US Treasury bonds and that this may still be ongoing. I literally just got the news right now, this very second, that the U.S. Treasury will buy back $6 billion of 10-20-year debt on October 1st as part of a liquidity buyback.
OK. We think some of that is already happening because we've hit 5.32 here on the 10-year bond. But there is a chance that the Japanese will continue to dump US Treasury bonds, as they did in 2022 and 2018. I've now put my reputation on the line because of the number here, and so far it looks wrong.
But I think I'll be proven right in the end, and I'll explain it. 5.27—that's when I called the 10-year Treasury bond, as we're pretty close to the peak. Like, I'm going to voice it. Like, well, it should be pretty close to peak. Why then do we still have these Japanese problems? Good. And what does this mean in the future?
What kind of upheaval is going to happen? That's what we're going to talk about. But I'll just take a moment to promote our Reinvest One platform. Reinvest One is a really cool product. I recommend you check it out. You can go to meetkevin.com if you want to look, but everything we have together is there .
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And lifetime access to this disappears at the end of the year. We are switching to an annual subscription model. But if you secure lifetime access now, you'll never have to pay for an annual subscription. You get everything: all nine courses, every live stream for course participants, and a brand new product that we release.
Not only the terminal, which is coming out in the fourth quarter, you also get our 10th course, which was the seventh product on this list. And this is a new business plan that we are developing. This will be very interesting about agent-based AI in business. This will be a truly great product, and it will be released in the first quarter of 2027 .
You get it all for one price, all in one terminal. Check it out at meetkevin.com. We think this will be a really great product. And the full version of the terminal is coming out in the fourth quarter of this year. But let's now deal with the instability aspect. Usually, when the 10-2 spread reaches 50 basis points, we enter the shock zone.
And there is something that can actually accelerate the onset of this shock zone. And that's consistent with what we heard from Williams at the Fed two days ago. So, Williams of the Fed said two days ago, "We're not sure we need to raise rates in October." Well, guess who's planning on getting a raise?
Every damn 3 months. Not sure yet. The situation is considered open . But Japan. If Japan raises rates in October and the US remains steady, the spread between US and Japanese yields will widen. This again makes Japan more attractive than us. And this could encourage capital repatriation back to Japan, just like we just saw on the TS Lombard chart.
So, in other words, ironically, the Fed's wait in the US could accelerate capital flight back to Japan. This is not good in the short term. Apparently, there is one thing that can save us and end all the suffering and opportunities to buy in a downturn. Obviously, this is a deal with Iran. We already know that.
But think about the potential catalysts we have now. Let's break this down and what strikes us here. So, economically, GPU rental prices and costs are skyrocketing. I was just talking about how we spent somewhere, I don't know, we spent about 50 grand on some more chips in August for my startup Reinvest.
It's part of what we build with the toolkits we create. We think we're doing a great job and can't wait to show you everything we're cooking. This will be really exciting. We just bought another 50 thousand in equipment, and it's already worth 40% more than we paid for it . Somewhere around 50. I don't remember exactly how many .
This is madness. But it's a sign that the AI economy is still on the rise. It's not just us who see this. We see it with our own eyes, but we also see it in aggregate data when executives talk about it. We know that GDP is growing rapidly, capital spending is growing, construction is growing, hiring is growing, jobs are growing, retail sales are growing, manufacturing is growing, services are growing.
That's all good. We know that affordable credit is great. Oil is falling back to $100, and frankly, when we make a deal with Iran, it will probably fall even lower. The problem now , the only problem we have now, is the 10- year Treasury bond, which could be driven by Japan, this Japanese spread or repatriation.
So, what's going on ? What are we left with when Japan completes repatriation and the war in Iran ends? If you don't believe these two things will end, you're right, being a bear. But my gut tells me we're headed straight for the devil's moon. Because why? When this Japanese nonsense is over and the war in Iran is over, which I'm 90-95% sure it is, I'll probably have to take my clothes off or something.
I don't know. I'm going to have to go and do something really embarrassing. I don't know. If I'm wrong about this, but I'm so damn sure we'll make a deal really think I'm going to have to do something if I'm wrong. We'll have to make a challenge. Maybe leave a comment. Tell me what needs to be done.
But in any case, the war in Iran will end. OK? That's my opinion. If we remove these two catalysts, then yes, could anything break between now and then? Of course. Every time we've had this much growth in Treasury yields for 7 consecutive months with this much volatility as we have now, 16 times out of 16 something has broken.
Dots -com. You had the dot-com crash, you had the market crash on Black Monday of '87, you had bank failures like Silicon Valley Bank. Something always breaks eventually. This does not necessarily mean that the economy has to collapse. Something might eventually break. But once you remove those two pain points, what's left?
What will you have left? You'll be left with oil, the price of which is falling because of the Iran deal, so it's not even a problem. You still have easy access to credit. You're left with the rising cost of GPUs and a world of affordable cyclical financing, whatever you call this bubble we're building.
This is a bubble . It's probably real, but you can still make money from it. In addition, the economy is doing well, capital spending is growing, retail sales are growing, manufacturing and the service sector are all doing well . Of course, yes, some segments of the population suffer and are poor. We know this.
But in my opinion, the only possible outcome if we make a bad deal and Japanese repatriation stops is a drop in bond yields and a sharp rise in US stocks. We started with the fact that the market currently has very poor breadth of coverage. RSP is in bad shape. You know, this is an equilibrium index.
There are certain stocks that are currently driving the market up, whether it's AMD, or Nvidia, or someone else. This helps the Nasdaq-100 grow. This is great. We bought the drawdown on this. We sent out a purchase notification. And we will continue to send buy or sell alerts, depending on what we deem appropriate.
We will send them to all members of our Reinvest One community. You can go to meetkevin.com to see it. We had a small survey about which website domain we should choose, because we would have to spend a lot of money to buy reinvest.com. So, we cooled down to this idea. But there is meetreinvest.com, there is reinvestone.com.
They will all redirect to the same thing. We don't know for sure yet. We'll figure this out. But the point is, we feel like we 're at the forefront of small AI startups. And that makes me very optimistic; not only seeing what we're doing and building, but also how it aligns with the economic data —it makes sense to me .
So, could all this collapse in the future? Of course. And that's why we have no debt. We do n't want, we don't want, we don't want any bank debt right now. This is what we do n't want right now. Because everything could go downhill quickly, but I think we have good growth ahead of us . And so I think, you know, by the end of the year, we're probably not only going to have record highs in the QQQ index, but the Nasdaq 100 is probably going to surpass...
I know on a day like today, everyone says, "Kevin, this is a red day." How can you be so optimistic? We will likely surpass the 800 mark for the Nasdaq 100 by the end of the year. So I'm really excited about this, but we need those two catalysts to stop. And yes, now we can blame the Japanese. And let's look at this in more detail.
Here. For the rest of the world, the upward pressure on yields comes at a very inopportune time . We are seeing significant repatriation of the yen. So what we have here is: historically, people have stayed away from these Japanese bonds because they didn't want to "catch a falling knife," so to speak.
But now people, for some reason, seem more interested in putting dollars back into the Japanese economy. And this is quite interesting. They are talking about a new phase in monetary policy, where the bank raises rates every 3 months . December is TS Lombard's baseline forecast for the next hike, but October also remains an option.
And we believe that markets misinterpreted the September move as a " dovey" hike, leading to another spontaneous speech scheduled for October 5, potentially to signal the strength of future hikes. Again, more hikes in Japan and fewer in the US, especially after the Iran deal, are making the Japanese problem worse before it gets better.
So, these two damn problems are still relevant. The Japanese problem and what is happening with Iran. A quick note on Iran. The Iranian president is open to greater dialogue. That's good. But Donald Trump this morning, we got a little update from Donny T. this morning. We'll scroll to it right here.
But the point of the update was that he wanted more. And I also found this very, very interesting right here. An hour ago, Iran did not challenge the US Navy escorts because it does not want hostilities to resume. It's like a big bad wolf saying, "I could kill you all with one lunge if I wanted to." "I just don't want to do this right now." This is a sign that the negotiations are actually going on, or the pressure on Iran is such that Iran really wants a deal right now.
And I think Trump is waiting now because he probably doesn't need to make a deal for at least another 3 weeks, which means we're still going to have volatility for the next 3 weeks. But I think this is the last opportunity, you know, this period that we're in now, the closing opportunity to buy before the big recovery.
So, I don't know, I could be wrong, but uh, this is what I see. And I see both of these issues coming to an end, this repatriation issue in Japan fading away, in addition to the Iran deal. Iran has made a proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz. I saw some aspects of it, but not all. We have a lot of weapons.
"Our situation is great," says Donald Trump. Although the reports of shortages were somewhat false. Some of them were right, which is interesting because they kept denying it. Renewed attacks on Iran are possible after the elections. But Iran did make an offer, and, you know, it could work , but it's just not enough.
We just want a little more. So, let's see how it goes. So, that's my opinion. This is my conclusion. Visit meetkevin.com and join us at Reinvest One. You will never have to pay a monthly fee if you join the Reinvest One product. And this, in my opinion, is a very strong proposition because you get everything in one great button. Let's go. Come on. Squeeze. Buy on the decline. Buy on the declin.
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