저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 비트코인·이더리움 하락은 공포 매도(항복 매도) 신호로 바닥 근처라고 주장한다. 비트코인 가치는 네트워크 사용량(지갑·거래 활동 기준 상승분의 87% 설명)과 금 대비 가치 비교로 정당화된다. 이더리움은 토큰화 자산 증가 시 상승 여력이 크다고 본다. 다만 단기적으로는 범위 내 횡보가 예상되며, 투자자 심리(AAII 설문)는 2022년 가을 약세 수준이다. Bitmine은 레버리지 없이 현금 보유 및 스테이킹 보상으로 수익을 내고 있다고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
crypto's been disappointing because crypto should move with you know, equity markets and it should be rallying with software. Software has really started to rally big and crypto hasn't moved. Um, so I think there are what what I call quote rage quitting people selling here as if something is wrong. I mean, one, I think that's what always happens at the end of crypto winter.
I don't I'm not really bearish on it, but I think in the near term it's hard to say it should go up right now. People are sitting and waiting and there's panic selling forced sellers. But the buyers are being patient. This is a very interesting update from Tom Lee where he discusses the recent volatility and sell-off happening in the Bitcoin market today.
He also shares his thoughts on Ethereum, his predictions for the coming months, what is happening behind the scenes in the market right now, and how investors can better protect themselves from what could be coming next. So, let's hear his latest insights and outlook for the market. You know, if someone asked me, is this thesis for Bitcoin or Ethereum broken?
You know, it's absolutely not because one, the more work we do and we're hearing it from founders like Palantir, Bitcoin and Ethereum are really the future of money because mass and computer or computer and energy, however Elon puts it, really are what's scarce and you're going to need to control agent systems and as age AI systems evolve, right?
We're now talking about using commerce and operating websites, you need decentralized identity and verification. That's really what crypto does. And we know Wall Street wants to go towards tokenization. It's a vast improvement in efficiency of the of actually how money moves and it's an innovation. Well, that only happens on Bitcoin and Ethereum and other smart contracts.
So, the future isn't changed, but the spotlight today is of course on semis, memory, starting on software, but as as people focus downstream into the future, that's really I think when the bid comes for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Yeah, actually market sentiment is plays a huge role cuz it's sort of essentially risk premium, but there are two proven ways to value crypto.
One of course is just network usage because wallets and activity per wallet still explain like even now 87% of the rise of Bitcoin. So as long as more people use it and they're transacting it, the value of Bitcoin should go up. It's a network effect. This second is the umbrella value of gold. You know, gold at when it hits 5,000 if Bitcoin had the same network value as gold and gold is not as scarce as Bitcoin, that would put Bitcoin at around 2 million.
So to me I think there's still two ways to look at the value and and of course for Ethereum it's been shown for every dollar of tokenized assets, you know, tokenized dollars or others it's created $1 value for it for ETH the coin. So if you believe Wall Street's going to tokenize, Ethereum's price should go up a lot.
Is the trust around Bitcoin going to grow over the next 5 years? Yes. And is it going to be increasingly viewed as a a a store of value like gold? Yes, I think increasingly. And then is there room for a lot more people to own it? Yes. So I mean the market is trying to price in a lot of these uncertainties right now.
And so it's understandable that we're churning. But investors don't want to become too bearish because the market sentiment, and it's already measurable, like the AAII survey, which is what we've used for the last like 14 years, I think it's the best retail sentiment survey is at the same bearish levels it was in the fall of 2022.
So retail sentiment, and that's probably because there's been a ton of margin calls last couple weeks is at the levels that were at the depths of that recent bear market. So, the investors view this as a crisis when it's really a growth scare. Intuitively, I'm going to say that it makes sense that we made a bottom, but we maybe range bound for a bit.
And that's because people are worried that there's other shoes to drop. Investors are going to worry about the ripple effects from this shock leading to a global recession. That some people are going to worry about a financial crisis from all this deleveraging. I think there's rage quitting taking place.
Yes. Um which is a good sign. Is it? Yeah. Cuz that's always a sign of a bottom, right? Take every drawdown in Bitcoin, you know you're at the end when people give up on Bitcoin. And this time they're talking about gold's been a better store value. So, I think people are quitting. In the traditional finance world, there's more people saying they're glad they don't own Bitcoin versus finance people who own Bitcoin and are losing money.
So, I To me, it's still a sign we're early because one, people have looked at the Bitcoin decline as proof they shouldn't invest in it, which I think means we're still early. It'd be different if people in finance were losing money in crypto and like rage selling it. Yeah. But the rage selling's happening more in the crypto world.
Last year, I think crypto felt like second a second rate story versus AI. Yeah. Right? Cuz people were buying anything AI related, data centers, even the Bitcoin miners. Um and then gold was just rising through it all of last year. And then suddenly gold really broke out to new highs and then went basically parabolic.
And I think that was really painful for crypto people. I think that's more signs like that we're at the end of the selling, not the beginning. Because one, gold has not been a great store value in its history. That since 1971, if you look at three-year returns, gold has underperformed inflation 48% of the time.
So, in other words, if it's supposed to be a store value, it should be outperforming inflation all the time. But, half the time you own gold, you've you've done worse than inflation. Since 2010, when Bitcoin was first created, Bitcoin's outperformed inflation even after the bear markets, 97% of the time.
Gold has only beaten inflation 54% of the time since Bitcoin was created. So, actually, Bitcoin's still been a better store value relative to inflation. And even in the last 3 years, Bitcoin's beaten inflation. I mean, how are you guys approaching the Ethereum trade now? You know, we're going to fall rise and fall with Ethereum.
I mean, basically, Bitmain is a stock that's adding Ethereum every week. So, if Ethereum goes down, Bitmain stock is not going to go up. But, it's going to outperform. Last year, from June 30 to the end of the year, Bitmain was created on June 30th. Ethereum was up 22%. Bitmain was up 500. So, Bitmain is outperforming Ethereum.
But, I think we're doing the right thing. One, we have no leverage. We've been keeping a big cash position. It's like And we're basically earning money every day. The staking rewards, plus the interest on the cash, is about a million dollars a day. Tom Lee continued to encourage Bitcoin and Ethereum investors, saying that the worst may already be behind us.
While both assets are experiencing volatility right now, he believes this period will eventually pass. As market conditions become clearer and stability returns, Bitcoin and Ethereum could see significant upside as investor confidence grows and more capital flows into the market. So, keep that in mind.
Things may look uncertain today, but better days could be ahead. As always, avoid panic selling. Consider buying the dip if it fits your strategy, and stay patient through the process for long-term success. Also, if you have kids or a young family, make sure to teach them about Bitcoin as early as possible before it's too late.
This Bitcoin Teen Ebook is the perfect guide to get started providing simple explanations and practical tips to help young minds understand and navigate the world of cryptocurrency. Link is in the description.
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