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12/7 장 마감 후 시황 정리. 나스닥·S&P500·러셀2000 등 대부분 지수 반등, 테슬라 1000달러 지지 후 상승, 금·은·원유는 바닥 다지기 후 추가 상승 여지 언급. 비트코인은 4만9700달러 저항 돌파 후 5.2만 달러 부근 안정 흐름, 이더리움은 상대적 부진. 12월 산타랠리 통계와 상승 갭 메움 확률(대개 7일 내 메움) 강조. 2022년 2~3월 조정 가능성 제기.
다듬은 글
hello everyone and welcome back to another video in today's video we're discussing everything to do with the markets around the world including these big runs that we're seeing on the stock market right now crypto markets and commodities markets the markets opened with a huge gap the question is will this gap get filled before we potentially reverse into a fantastic santa rally we've got the stats on the santa rally we've got the stats on gap bills and we've got a whole bunch of great information that i think you guys will find helpful today see you soon everybody all right well here begins our market recap for the markets closed the 7th of december 2021 and when we're taking a look at the heat map of the s p 500 we always want to know where the large money is flowing and it was flowing everywhere yesterday tesla was up four point two four percent as we suspected that thousand point hold happened a thousand dollars big support huge bullish movement through there amazon up 2.8 percent and apple all-time highs during the day 3.54 percent this stock just continuously goes from strength to strength to strength now when we're talking about which index and which markets were doing the best it was pretty much across the board there was great movement we had everything rallying at the beginning of the session then it started to just kind of like you know i guess you would say consolidate after that large move and we did see some selling into the near the close and then buying in the last five to ten minutes so wall street's feeling pretty positive we know what happens in the close is pretty important and what happens on certain sectors is also something we want to be taking a look at so every one of these markets was recovering nasdaq leading the charge at 3.03 really getting rid of a lot of the negativity to do with the inverted or the head and shoulders pattern in this case let's move over now to the sectors ibb 3.92 that's the biotech sector that was the best for the session xlk the technology sector very strong and the more defensive sectors the xlp the xlu these are of course the defensive sectors in the markets they were barely up so it really showed you that risk was on and the market was feeling good and this is off the back of all of that news about omicron the vaccines all of that type of stuff regardless how we all feel about it the fact is the market saw it as a positive it moved up it created a giant gap and it brings us to a discussion point about gaps and of course about the santa rally what do we expect for the rest of the year so many people know of the santa rally they know of this idea that the stock market has generally been positive in december most years and that around the santa rally period so where of course santa comes to town around christmas day and then santa goes back to the north pole i like this statement here we get tend to see a bit of a rally and you'll notice it is overall positive then when we go into january that tends to be a little bit more mixed and we usually expect of course a good end of the year people are feeling good there's less liquidity in the market less volume trade and there has been some years where it hasn't really been like this but in general over that time while there's been crashes and corrections and moves that period of time has generally stayed positive throughout most of history now let's also talk about what happens next year because a lot of people were calling this the crash or the correction that we needed we kind of got correction during september then we got thrown this left curled ball of of course the omicron stuff and everything else that we're talking about with the fed and now we're moving to a point where will we go into seasonality weakness in kind of the february to march period this is when we actually expect things like technology to underperform it's a very common month where technology underperforms so will february actually be the where the correction is next year i'd like you guys to have a guess let us know where do you see if you believe the market will even have a correction let's say 10 or something next year in 2022 which month do you think it will happen in i'm very interested to see your opinions down below now we discussed the idea of gaps and we've got some great information here that's come out from one of the members of the community it's great to see everybody creating and compiling data this is from ian worthington big shout out to him it's been a helpful a really helpful person actually in creating a lot of data for the channel and i love that and what he was doing was he was figuring out how many up fill gaps up gaps that is only from 1927 all the way to of course october in 2021 when we made this sheet actually fill and you'll notice that in general gaps tend to fill in the first kind of seven days after that period if the gap hasn't filled it drops off dramatically and then of course the fills happen much later on possibly things like a crash or a correction fills those gaps later you'll notice that's where that higher percentage is so for gap fills where's the stats well the stats are generally here and this is really cool to keep in mind if you're a day trader scalper or anything like that if you start to see weakness knowing your stats knowing when the gaps generally fill knowing when they're less likely to fill it's fantastic information i want to say a big thank you to ian and this is quite helpful for us to be able to use in the charts and speaking of charts let's get stuck into the analysis we'll start off here with some vix we'll talk about the vix we'll talk about some commodities and then we'll move into of course the broader market stock markets crypto and everything else and let's have a look here at the vix itself so the fear index dropped straight back down and this was expected i mean we always expect the market's going to go up at some point and when that goes up the fear comes out of the market very aggressively and of course the vix drops this is known as the fear index basically it's the volatility in the options and we move straight back down to around that 20 level so if we get another day of bullish action on the markets where will we expect the vix to be most likely under 20 and in a much safer state in terms of volatility we'll continue to watch this but that's really all we're looking at another thing to mention has been tlt so this is the 20 year bonds usually there's this kind of idea of flight to safety so the 20-year bonds broke out and then they've pulled back down to our green line here and if the bears are going to resume which i don't know if they can by now but let's say they do resume this is where you expect the bonds to be purchased up so tlt sitting right around that zone where now you're waiting for lightning bolts double bottom patterns all those types of things remember bonds are really a flight to safety they're not that great from a return-based standpoint so really they're just used as an asset allocation when the rest of the market the big players are looking to i guess flee from risk on and start to take some risk off let's move now to u.s oil u.s oil here phenomenal trades really great movement here in the price action we noticed on things like the two hour chart that we liked what we saw in fact it was basically a wike off accumulation down here in the lows or some people called it an inverse head and shoulders with the head here the left shoulders and then the right shoulder however you want to look at it doesn't really matter the point is it consolidated it breached through here which we reported on and a lot of us talked about and then we moved straight up to the resistance here at 73 and now we're starting to try to put some pressure on to the upside past that the next stop could be around that 75 level and it looks like oil is really trying to put in the good yards here we've got opec in its favor opec of course is trying to fight many governments around the world to keep oil high and they tend to get their way it's kind of like a little bit of a cartel there isn't it they do tend to get their own way and we are looking now towards can we breach this level up here because we get a closure above here for the end of the week could we be looking at some seriously long oil it's very possible long leg doji low high open close similar level showing us indecision we close above decision made on the bigger time frames and more swing trading can ensue so it's a really important point here coming up on oil i think it's been good trading so far and if you recognize the accumulation base i'll give you a clap well done to you um that's fantastic because it's it's a good base and it's certainly one of those great setups we've been pretty good here with our oil analysis as a community a lot of you seem to like it so we leave it in when we get good setups now speaking of potential this one old gold and silver oh what can we say about gold and silver that hasn't already been said we've got the beginnings of the recovery here the whole thing was basically a falling knife we know december tends to be positive for gold we've now seen a new peak here of the recent couple of days and we've got that long leg doji and now we've made what we're about to make the decision made above that's a positive sign for gold the next big level for it is that 1810 and we've spoken about 1810 so many times partly due to the weekly longleg doji similar to oil the low the high the indecision can we make a decision made and then start rallying and partly just due to the fact that on that two hour the four hour the eight hour time frames we know there's resistance all over this 1810 this is the level where the bears will try to bust it back down and if the bulls can get control of gold above there then we're starting to look really positive for that december run it's the same thing on silver if we move over to silver very similar kind of accumulation base it's rating for gold you would think and you've got some nice buying here but nothing super strong just yet to say okay let's get into this market you'll notice here the wicks on the daily wick rejection wick rejection long leg doji key point right there on silver commodities are certainly getting a little bit more exciting when you get bases like this let's move over to tesla as we mentioned tesla moved off the thousand it was a fairly easy day trade if you take it into the close or even during the open because it came back down it showed you momentum open came back down we had the bullish hammer off the thousand and then it started rallying now we do have a little bit of a problem around this 1060 area that's certainly a key zone for it and if we breach past this zone the next points could be quite a lot higher i mean i'm thinking actually all the way up here maybe even near that 1200 1170 so there's plenty of upside in tesla but remember at this stage we're still in that big consolidation after the large move so we've got the consolidation that happened over here after the large move large move consolidation tesla tends to play that way so into resistance watch out at this area but if it busts through it could be a nice little run for the next sessions let's move over to amazon amazon holds the downward trend line so here's the downward trend line that acts as support we got two wicks there we suspected it might do okay off that zone it certainly did close relatively bullish and now we move towards okay let's keep going amazon let's keep moving towards that 37.60 and what we're hoping to get by the end of the year which is close to a 4 000 reading 3 900 4 000 is the aim here for amazon it's really been sitting doing nothing for a very long time and in some ways fundamentally it's actually been getting relatively cheaper it's just the growth is kind of coming out of it due to that really massive intense growth that saw during the 2020 pandemic lows and of course all the purchases and everything that happened after that but they've got so many things in their business a lot of people have bullish this stock and i think rightfully so it's been sitting for quite some time it's almost the sleep of fang stock it's the one that nobody talks about as much it hasn't been doing as well and it kind of reminds me a lot of the netflix charts when you go and have a look at netflix for a long time that stock didn't do anything either hopefully it gets a nice closure this week and then we start to see some movement through we'll follow it more in the next coming videos let's move over to the indices now indices discussion always fun here we'll start off with that russell 2000 who doesn't love the russell 2000 well probably a lot of you hate it right now for valid reasons but we have here a bit of a downward or the trend line itself that's acted as some resistance i guess we've left this on the charts for that reason but a nice double bottom if we get a gap fill where does that come back down to 220 where do we expect buyers to be most likely 220 if we look at a two hour chart and zoom it in which we're on at the moment you'll notice that's where the two hour 20 moving averages as well which is fantastic at the 220 resistance resistance resistance resistance resistance could that be support you would think that makes logical sense should it pull back otherwise we're just looking for a new peak to be made and then we move towards filling that gap here because of course we haven't actually filled that massive gap that happened just recently when iwm crashed pretty hard and this this market really has been down a lot more than any of the other markets it's got the biggest runway up it's got obviously the biggest risk because it's the smaller cap companies but there's still that potential for it to go to that 252 260 rating based on the fact that it's been in a channel for a long time and while it did false break to the upside there's always that potential it comes back through again go site netflix you'll notice very similar things i always look at the monthly here as a bit of a token see how the monthly's held it down so while the weekly came through the monthly did not and at the end of december should we be above here i think that's a very positive sign for for the russell 2000 very positive indeed let's move over to the ndx now the nasdaq just absolutely blitzed it again huge gap here i could definitely see that gap trying to fill though it's more of a guess we'll have to watch it through the session if it starts making a new low through the session that might have some algo trading on it moves back down i think there'll be some buying around this level this 15 000 989 basically 16 000 zone should it happen and it does look like it's snapping off a lot of the weakness here i mean the bears would be clinging on for dear life to try to support this market right now for them to think it's a turnaround it's going to be tough the news is more positive this was a news driven trade it was a news driven short and the technicals are holding on the s p 500 really well but the nasdaq is just getting that massive buying coming back into it and i think it's really hard pressed to get the bears in in line if the bears got it underneath this zone again of course then yes i believe we would go down to this level but it seems to be snapping most areas and i think that's a bit of a problem there filling of the gap will be the big one now we mentioned at the start of the week the most important market to watch was going to be the s p 500 and i really think it was it had so much great technicals on it we hit the 45 or 450 or the 4500 this level had huge amounts of puts on it now we call it a put wall when we have a lot of puts sitting on a level and that really kind of gives us a nice support base we also know that it was a fibonacci pullback of this level here so if we actually bring the fib on let me just do that for you guys now for any new viewers out there here we go we'll bring the fib on we know it's between our 38 2 and our 50 fib this is where wall street loves to buy positions we had our weekly 20 moving average sitting right there at the 4450 and we even saw on friday some strong buying so if we actually go down to the oh we'll look at the spx here for a second we saw some strong buying coming through just near the close look at this some nice weeks week purchases week purchases weak purchases closure gap up movement from the trend line down we cross above and then we've moved ahead so while we may get back pull backs down to these things look at this we've got a two hour 2050 sitting right here acting as dynamic support now that's going to be a big deal we move over to the daily what else is sitting there it's going to be a daily 20 moving average and a daily 50 it's going to be hard to get through those to the short side now we've snapped off that 4650 area being resistance potential resistance that's completely closed above and we've got the santa claus rally coming up the general positivity coming into december it does look over all the price actions what we have to follow and currently the price action looks good we can be cautious if you want to but really the price action still looks relatively strong speaking of strong price action let's move over to bitcoin in the crypto markets bitcoin shorts continues to decline as we have really detailed a few times now when this trend starts and it tends to switch especially to the downside we do tend to see further shorting pressure as in the shorts come off for bitcoin when the whales move they move fast and we've seen that several times they move in they dump that position that dump that short position very quickly and we tend to see of course that react with a positive bitcoin price action so let's move over to bitcoin it's looking pretty good that beautiful area 49 700 resistance breakout fantastic we then get to 52k it comes down our aim here is to try to find whether bitcoin can move up to the 54k area this is the most likely kind of area for it to find some extra trouble and so far so good on the price action weak rejection weak rejection maybe need a little bit of a movement above here above that 51k and that will start the next hopeful rally at least on the smaller time frames of course you need to analyze this minute to minute hour to hour because the market is moving quite quickly but bitcoin trying to stabilize around here and if it does get back down to 49 670 this is where we expect some bigger whale buyers to try to load up on the position it's starting to stabilize that's a good thing for crypto markets and we're seeing the positive reactions across the board at this stage let's move over to ethereum very similar though ethereum has slowed so this coin has held up a lot and i think the retail mentality is thinking damn i've got ethereum here at twenty 4322 i'm only down marginal percentage not much at all yet i can go and buy dot i can go and buy ada cardano i can go and buy whatever else coin i'm looking at and i might be getting a 40 plus discount so i think some ethereum holders because they they tend to be the ones that hold alts as well a little bit more a lot of the bitcoin crowd they just told bitcoin that's it um then maybe they're selling a little bit of portions as they're it's holding up much better than the other coins and i don't blame them for that but i think that's partially why we're getting some sluggish movement from ethereum still looks strong on the charts nothing really wrong with it but to get that big next rally we need to break through these previous peaks over here once we get through those that will be the tick of approval that's where we want to basically see the markets be and of course move through that zone if you've enjoyed today's content please remember to subscribe smash that like button guys and we hope you're enjoying the daily content that we bring on this channel i'm super interested to see everybody's responses today let's find out what you all believe see you soon
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