저자: FXEvolution · 외국인
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미국 채권금리 급등과 채권시장 공포를 근거로 주식 추가 하락 가능성을 경고. 채권수익률 고점 신호, 섹터 방어주 로테이션, S&P500 PER 압축 가능성 제시. 9월 FOMC를 앞두고 달러 강세 저항, 금 1660 지지 이탈 주의, 비트코인 9~12천 달러 하락 가능성 언급. 협찬(Tiger Brokers) 포함.
다듬은 글
hello ladies and gentlemen and welcome back well all of us are now aware that interest rates are on the rise and more importantly the bond market is starting to freak out we'll be taking a look at that bond market today but of course we need to talk about whether the federal reserve is going to raise rates by 75 basis points or 100.
what the market is telling us is that it's ready to make a big move because we're at critical across stocks commodities and the world's biggest hedge being the us dollar so many markets at key points and on top of that what just happened in yields with pretty much most of them now reaching all-time highs for the last several hundred days is pointing us towards some interesting potential drawdowns on these markets stay tuned as we cover it all off today talk about stocks commodities and cryptos let's begin by discussing yields and their breakout again we've just had the percentage of u.s treasury yields at 252 day highs go from less than 20 to 98 and when we start to see these ratings some interesting statistics start to appear now for anyone that's followed the stock market for long enough you would know that around 59 of the time you expect the stock market to be bullish now of course we're in a very unique period high inflation all sorts of concerns across the world but when we've seen the bond market freak out like this and push yields to super high levels and really to make that random thrust zone we have had some kangaroo style markets that is markets that were weaker in the future one two three four into six months later we were barely positive over that period and that's kind of signaling that there could be more pain to come in these markets another thing is also sectors rotation remember big money how do they have to invest well they can't just all go in cash they can't stay in cash for that longer period so when we tend to see these readings we also have a little bit of a flight to safer sectors that's be something that we're looking at now over the next coming weeks and especially after this fomc event will the big players jump more into utilities consumer staples and defensive sectors across the board this tends to be what they do before bad things happen cyclically adjusted p e ratios how does that look well again if we have high yields we have this change where it goes from negative or under 20 to 98 plus we tend to see a compression in the p e ratios and this is something that i think is very big when we're talking about the markets right now on average pe comes down quite a significantly during this time as the markets re-value what stocks are worth and if you look here at this s p 500 p e ratio the average is currently 19.48 but if we go to the mean and median we really aren't anywhere near 15.98 and 14.9 which are those levels now a lot of you will say well we can't use pe ratios during this time we've got potentially a weakening economy we've got of course companies probably earning less in the future this is a bad number what it's telling us though is that the market is re potential valuation of all of these companies has to come down and if that happens then we could be seeing new lows in the market and it's you know one of those case scenarios that you must be thinking about we do know that inflation is incredibly sticky right now all these bonds markets as we'll see later in today's video as we go through the key charts look at every levels that we need to look at look at the key zones that we want to see broken ahead of this fmc or as it happens we do know that generally eight months from the last hike that's when we get the first cut and at the moment we're seeing really rates basically peak at around four and a half percent in the future during april of 2023 and the first cuts expected in october through to december of 2023 will that eventuate we'll find out we've got these charts up all the time midterm election years usually bad year regardless but of course we're in september and october the worst months of the year generally on record throughout stock markets from 1931 to now it's an interesting stat well worth knowing if you haven't ever heard that and of course generally speaking the back end of september is weaker than the front we'll find out whether that holds true it's just a little bit of a stat to add credence if you do see shorts in the market here's all the bear markets since the 1800s in terms of how long they've lasted for in their recoveries pause the video if you're interested there and our standard discussion about how we always expected a double dip here but will we get the most correlated market to the current market which is basically of course 2008 at this stage it seems to be almost playing the perfect kind of correlation to 2008 will it be that bad time will tell i tend to believe that we will find base before going into utter capitulation that is we we might go down to 3200 or 3000 on the spy but i am certainly hoping that we don't get into those low 2000s like many of you in the comments section i have been posting to me recently midterm election years we need to keep an open mind while they go into the midterms week that is often around that 10 10 to 15th of october they tend to turn to the bulls side after midterm elections the stats are actually very favorable for markets so remember if we go into capitulation here you might want to think a little bit differently than others about markets they do have a tendency to do very well afterwards every time is different but of course it's there and also remember that we have the ccp big vote that's coming up mid-october and all of these other things just too many people aren't discussing the ccp vote in particular is going to be a big one so subscribe because we'll be covering off on that in the future i think what happens there could really define how the entire world moves forward over the next couple of months so just before we jump into the charts i want to say a big thank you to of course tiger brokers who are sponsoring today's video we've just recently finished doing a whole bunch of some of my favorite features but i did want to bring this one up again which is of course the trade window and more importantly what i thought i'd do is let's take a little bit of a positional just so you can see how easy it is to of course place trades within the tiger brokers platform if we go over here we can see that i've selected telstra which is an australian based company the market's open at this time for this this company and you can see here that i can just press the buy button and it will come up with an order confirmation i can select limit orders i can select market orders and of course i can select stops as well so if i select market order let's say i want to buy these particular stocks i could then press the buy button load it up it will ask me to of course make sure i'm willing to do so it will then confirm it which is very important actually a lot of platforms sometimes they don't get you to confirm it and then of course you can press the confirm button and this will place the order and you'll notice that that's gone in it's made a little kind of sound to say that the order's gone through and we can then go over here and see whether we've filled and we just filled in for this order at market and of course we've got it so one of the reasons that i like this platform so much is not just because it was so easy to of course place a trade there's an app that lets you do it there's a whole bunch of community news remember you can just go over to the news tab and see all of the information coming out here about all of the stocks you can select watch list ones and put them in there if you wish to and realistically it's all at your fingertips they're constantly improving constantly adding new stuff so if you're interested and especially if you're from australia and you're interested in getting the special offer of the extra zip stocks at this stage you can look at the links in the description down below and remember the zip offer is only until september and the end of september so don't delay there guys if you want to get those stocks thanks so much let's talk about vic's volatility index was up slightly on the session ahead of the fomc not really anywhere in particular it's neither at a 35 nor is it at a 20.
so that means that of course we're not really seeing a huge move there in volatility leading into this event it's just kind of just hovering around that zone expect it though to spike especially if the fmc freaks out the market yields are where the story's been this week four and a half percent of 4.5 handle here when it comes to of course the april figures for yields we know the two-year is sitting at almost four percent incredible stuff the ten year at three and a half percent which is moving up quite significantly new high here for this giving us credence into those stats and really the first cuts are not expected until october into december now by the bonds market could be a bit of rough times ahead a lot of people out there do not have any idea remember you guys might but most people out there the general consumer has no idea about what interest rates are coming from on the horizon should all of this eventuate let's look at the us dollar it continues to hover around our resistance zone 1 10 25 you'll notice at the time of recording it's having a little go at trying to get higher but this resistance this supply area up here has held the whole time we talked about this 109 kind of 20 to 40 zone that's where we found the buyers back for the us dollar and remember the trend here is still currently towards the us dollar up if it starts to hold above this 110 25 we've got to be careful and really watch out down below for the s p 500 because strong dollar that's been coinciding with of course weakness in the s p 500 nasdaq and others this will be the chart to certainly have on your your screen during the announcement to see how it closes stay tuned for the next video as well on that same with the euro you can see it's taken that high there grabbed some liquidity certainly instantly sold back off and now it's making a series of lower highs i mean if you were looking at this and you weren't even paying attention to what's probably going to happen here when it comes to the news result you would think well this looks pretty weak and it looks like it wants to just absolutely get pummeled and time will tell whether that does occur but series of lower highs and straight into there with a take it's looking like some nasty distribution at this stage which is uh going towards that weakness and of course that's what the market is is kind of painting the picture of gold's very similar it's holding that 1660 its last defensive point if it gets through and breaks below this and closes below this we've got to be very careful with gold because there's not much holding it up until we get back down into these fifteen hundreds and eighties or even fourteen sixty one and i hate to say it but gold doesn't like this type of you know runaway inflation it doesn't tend to do well with raising rates there's a whole bunch of reasons why commodities also if you check out our previous video that we did we talked about the stats there commodities weakened for the future as well at this stage based on the stats that we're seeing so a bit of demand destruction a bit of problems here will gold hold we'll find out very soon natural gas a lot of people wanted me to message on this one well looks like it's kind of weakening off here but again look at that right on the demand and it's it's holding as best it can ahead of the news expect that to be explosive in terms of uh moves we also see u.s oil holding around its most important zone the previous weekly highs over here and our current structural base will it break through 1989 90 and actually give us some good trading opportunities or is it just going to go down all the way downtown into this 65 over the next coming months well we'll see next 24 hours tell us a lot about these trades tesla's at resistance a key level ahead of key news no surprises there i've said this for a few days at this point it's kind of critical having risk management is key here because you're out of key resistance most likely if it breaks what's the worst it generally will come down and re-test later on giving you the opportunity to get in and then react to that and if you have the patience you often do get the better opportunities or at least you get the higher reward opportunities without taking super risk at the resistance i think the risk here is still to the downside on something like a tesla apple it's pretty strong i mean they end up having a decent session but i have a feeling a whole bunch of this has got to do with how many people are trying to short apple right now there's a lot of shorted stocks that are starting to buy up and i think that's because so many people are piling into the short it's it's being a crowded trade if you look at things like google i mean that's the one that where we're possibly seeing a drop what if it goes underneath this hundred marker goes under gets into the 99s and then just bounces straight up that could be a very interesting trade for uh people that really have their theirs their set mindset of knowing how to uh pick these types of positions but if it falls through and closes you know watch out down below because there's nothing much that's going to hold google until possibly into these 88 we've already seen what's happened with meta facebook almost at the 2020 lows another critical zone potentially coming for this and it looks like the market wants these levels how it gets there though is the guess that we're trying to form or at least form this concept in the markets and very difficult ahead of so many big economic bits of news the bonds market coming into the announcement it's not happy you can see here high-yield bonds freaking out getting upset about the world and starting to drop down pretty important obviously we need to focus in on something like high yield bonds if it makes a new low this will be a big 24 hours if that does occur we've got to then i'll give you some updates on my lead bond indicators if they all make new lows as well then we we kind of can really start to discern that maybe there is new lows potentially coming here for the stock markets around the world the dax new low forms however it's not under our critical sup yet and if you go out to the daily you'll see what we're talking about previous buying demand zones that have come through we have not seen that tested yet so this will be something that we're watching through the next 24 hours you just got so many of these positions at criticals here is the nasdaq now notice it's in the middle of both ranges we've got our critical demand our critical supply our resistances and our major ones i could see this spike one of these zones and then reverse it whichever one it wants to often with these decisions especially when their statements and they come out the market will go in one direction to trap liquidity to trap us as traders into a position it will then reverse those positions after going through that zone now if you know how to spot it and you're looking for it and you have your proper risk management that's really the way you have to trade news you have to look at extreme points and when extreme points are taken and reversed then you can say i see what you're doing but you've got to be careful around this news in the middle of nowhere land for the nasdaq and as you'll see when we use the s p 500 here it's the same for this one it's finding as best it can support if you were looking at it you would think ah this is just hit a critical zone rejected from it probably extracted a whole bunch of shorts ahead of the fmc so you would think oh well probably it's going up that's actually what's happened a lot of the time since this fomc statements have come out we've seen that bullish pressure i'm open to both though and that's the problem you've got to also think where's the extreme buy zones here for the market it's more likely in this box down here that 37.50 to 20 zone this is critical for these markets if markets get into this zone well of course i would expect some buyers to hopefully pick up demand here you're looking for structure smaller time frames and again practicing the patients let's look at the futures market 3960 key supply big level there moving forward we've got this miniature one we talked about it that was the first short i would have preferred to take that with options i discussed in the previous video and i totally see why people may have taken that one i do tend to like to wait for the perfect entry zones the critical zones but of course this is this is a big big thing and that's something that i guess you know that's just the way you type the trade if you're prepared to leave some that's good if you're prepared to take let's say the more aggressive entries which was here then what instrument do you pick to take that's very important the market came down and it cleared these lows and rebounded near the end of the day again could critically hit that move up could also take the high move down it's it's going to be the first reaction i would think is probably going to be wrong unless the fed come out and say something crazy i doubt they will but yeah the market's setting up for some sneaky sneaky trapping over the next 24 hours and i look forward to making the video over the next day to get on that and have a talk about it same thing for bitcoin i won't mention this too much look at our previous video i've still got a plan that i believe bitcoin can get lower in fact i'm thinking between that 9 and 12 000 in terms of my personal opinion on where technical levels are and of course there's a kind of halving cycle concept that would mean that in the next 150 days yeah i know that's wide we would we would see the low formed on bitcoin so i'd like to see further weakness sometime over the next few months and actually push lower you have to be patient and confident in your abilities if you're going to be an investor in these types of things and of course at this stage we can see that it keeps making a series lower highs the market is really going to dictate it and realistically bitcoin is a lot weaker than the stock market right now from just a price action standpoint you can see it on these charts if you haven't already come and follow us at fxevolution on twitter if you're interested in following along and do remember the fomc statement is at 2 p.m new york time that is a 75 basis point expectation about 20 something percent of economists think that it could be a hundred percent i'm not too sure whether we're going to get that one percent kind of raise in rates we'll find out obviously the press conference after that half an hour that's often where you get that kind of reversal where they they have the initial rate the market goes a direction the fomc press conference that creates even more shenanigans we still have monetary policy statement for the japanese yen and what's going on there we've got the swiss franc we've got the bank of england you know it doesn't get bigger than monetary policy and this is the year of data driven you know realistically central banks if you haven't already checked out tiger brokers definitely consider doing so they've got a whole bunch of special offers right now and of course at the end of september for australian viewers out there their extra bonus sip shares will run out so if you're interested in finding out more about tiger brokers look at the description down below look at the little links and of course you can check it out whether it's right for you thanks so much for watching guys subscribe comment like it and we'll see you in the next one bye for now
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